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Week 17 – Start and Sits

Every week the TSF crew squares off against each other to see who has the best hit and miss percentage of the week with our positional starts and sits with 1 featured sleeper and dart throw of the week. Read and follow along with your favorite TSF analyst and get some insight on players we like this week and some deep players to keep an eye on for any given week.

Sam Darnold – Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts
Much like my QB sit this week, this guy has struggled in his last couple outings. However, I think Darnold has such a plus matchup this week, lining up against the Colts, that he is a must play. The Vikings offense as a whole should be started this week, JJeff, Darnold, Jones, Addison, and Hock, who is finally expected to return to action. Darnold should be spoiled for choice and I think he will get back to his early season form where he was connecting for multi-TD games on the regular. I’d pencil n a 22-25 point game for Darnold in Week 9, and honestly that ceiling could be even higher if Flacco can lead the Colts on offense to answer the bell.
– Cory
Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
After putting up massive games before their Week 7 bye, Caleb came crashing back down to earth last week against the Commanders. The Commanders on paper are supposed to be one of the easiest matchups for QBs, but they have actually been stingy as of late, so they are a much better defense then we give them credit for. He get the Cardinals this week who have struggled as of late against QBs and give up the 7th most points to opposing QBs as well. I am taking last week as an outlier and assume Williams and the offense get back to where they were a few weeks ago.
– Scott
Rachaad White – Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
The rumors of Bucky Irving overtaking Rachaad White were greatly exaggerated, for those of us paying attention to snap counts, overall production, and pertinent injury reports. With the two backs now in a near even split, as predicted by TSF nearly the moment the Bucs drafted Irving, we see people still cooling on White, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. 59% start rate for White, even in a tough matchup with KC’s number one ranked defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to the RB position, seems low to me. With the lack of other healthy weapons in the Bucs attack, White will continue to be called upon to contribute as a receiver, and in PPR/Half-PPR formats, this is a gold mine.
– Cory
Chase Brown – Cincinatti Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Chase Brown has taken over the RB1 duties in Cincy even though Moss is still getting work behind him. The offense is playing better with him as the starter and when he sees over 50% of snaps. The Raiders have been one of the worst teams against the run and just one of the worst NFL teams. Cincy should be able to eat against this defense and the Bengals likely up in this game, we should see even more work out of the running game. Lock Brown in your lineup once again this week.
– Scott
Puka Nacua – Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
I understand people taking the cautious approach with Puka, playing it safe and playing the wait-and-see game. I did the same thing myself his first week back. And if you lost because of the 14.60 points Puka would have earned you, then the decision to start him this week becomes even easier. He picked up right where he left off, he and Kupp showing they can both work off one another to be productive in the offense, and that Puka is the real deal. I would look for the Rams to continue to look his way often, and as a guy who also contributes as a fantastic blocker, he is on the field a TON. I think the only thing in this matchup that would give me any cause for concern is Devon Witherspoon, who is an outstanding and physical corner who has been playing exceptional football of late for the Seahawks, but I think the Rams have enough inventive ways to scheme Puka open that we don’t need to worry about a Witherspoon shadow approach like we do a lot of the times with elite WRs facing off against him.
– Cory
Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Reed has had some massive games, but lately he has not been over double digit points and his targets are not as high as they were to start the season. This makes sense when all Packers WRs are healthy, but we would expect that the best passing option would see a few more per game. This should be a high scoring and the Packers will need to pass the ball more to keep up with the Lions. Joran Love could miss this game and if he does, I may like Reed a bit more since Willis has seemed to have a great connection with Reed whenever he is under center.
– Scott
David Njoku – Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The change of QB in Cleveland has really boosted Njoku over the last couple games, as he’s finally seeing some red zone targets go his way and is finding the role in the offense we all hoped he would have had from Week 1. I think the coupling of the QB change with the departure of Amari Cooper has really opened up the opportunity for him to shine, and shine he has. He won’t have the easiest matchup with the Chargers, who have looked much improved of late, but I think this is a situation where talent will prevail, and Njoku’s talent cannot be denied.
– Cory
Cade Otton – Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
This one may seem too easy, but I am giving him one more week here before it is just too obvious. The Bucs are without Evans and Godwin and they, as of now, have not brought in another option in the passing game. This leave Otton as the clear number one option for Baker Mayfield and he has seen 20 targets in the last two games. That would be impressive as a WR, but even more impressive as a TE! Oh and let us not forget they are playing Kansas City who give up the MOST points to opposing TEs. After this game, Otton may not be ranked outside the top 3 going forward.
– Scott
Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
The day is coming where Jonathan Brooks will be activated and hit the lineup, and that day might een be this week, but I am still starting Chuba and advising you to do the same. While Brooks will have a role when he inevitably plays, he will likely be eased in, and the Panthers have shown they have a soft spot for Hubbard. Not only that, he’s been very effective, potentially the brightest spot in this Carolina offense through the first half of the season. So I will continue to ride him until he is phased out of the offense, which I don’t think is happening anytime soon. He also has a favorable matchup with the Saints defense, who have been struggling against the run this year. I would expect another solid showing from Chuba in Week 9.
– Cory
Keon Coleman – Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Most of us thought that Coleman’s role would crash with the addition of Amari Cooper, but it has been the exact opposite. Something we always need to remember is that when a team has an alpha type player, it opens up room for others to get open and shine. This is exactly what is happening for Coleman and he can take a breath for not having to be the best pass catcher on his team while being a rookie. He is seeing 7 targets a game since Cooper has joined the team and Josh Allen is really playing out of his mind.
– Scott
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
At this point, I just don’t feel like I have any other option but to sit Dak Prescott. Even against a weaker Atlanta defense in a game that looks like it may be a shootout, I just don’t have faith that he is going to give me a 20+ point fantasy outing at the QB position, which is pretty much a must-have if you expect to win your matchup any given week. He’s got the weapons around him, and he has linked up with Ceedee on a fairly consistent basis, but outside of that connection there seems to a steep dropoff in production. Whether the onus of that dropoff falls to him or lies with another party, it makes him a very tough start this week. In his last 4 games we’ve seen 16.74, 18.38, 5.22, and 15.62 points. And while Atlanta is the most favorable matchup he’s had of late, it’s not enough for me to get onboard with the 81% of people who are starting Dak this week, which I do expect to drop as teams evaluate their fantasy lineups later in the week.
– Cory
C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans @ New York Jets
Stroud has not lived up to his draft capital this year and will find it hard to do this week against the Jets. This is a team already without Nico Collins and just lost Stefon Diggs for the year. I am a fan of Tank Dell and think he gets more work in this offense, but if the Jets just have to take away Dell as the top passing option, I am not sure the other WRs on this team can handle it. We also have seen the offense run through Mixon since he has been back and they are winning because of it. I expect them to pound the rock with Mixon in this game, which means Stroud will not have enough passing attempts to be a QB1 this week.
– Scott
Breece Hall – New York Jets vs. Houston Texans
I don’t know what more Breece can do on the football field to get more involved, but the Jets just seem to refuse to ride him, even when he is the hot hand. Last week in a loss to New England, he was averaging 5 yards per carry, and the Jets decided to only give him 16 touches, handed it to Braelon Allen on the goal line, and then let Aaron Rodgers ineffectively and inefficiently throw the ball 28 times. They also CANNOT get out of their own way with holding calls and other penalties, and as such, I am sitting him against a tough Houston run defense in Week 9. It’s tough to do, but if you are in a must win week and your fantasy life is hanging by a thread, I would look for a safer option with a better matchup this week.
– Cory
Bucky Irving – Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Bucky Irving has been the best rookie RB this season and has looked better than White most weeks. I do believe the argument of who will take over as the lead is a non argument because this is almost an exact split in this backfield which makes sense. Both of these guys are running great and catching the ball out of the backfield since this team has lost massive weapons in the passing game. After hyping him up, I will sit Irving this week mainly because they play the best run defense in the NFL and he is said to be playing through a foot injury and will continue to play through it all year. If that is the case, we may see a split backfield lean heavier to White.
– Scott
Davante Adams – New York Jets vs. Houston Texans
Sensing a theme here? Sit your Jets. Well… I’d play Garrett Wilson still to be honest. But Adams has not come in and had the monster impact we all hoped he would. They have tried forcing him the ball and it hasn’t worked out, the only noticeable benefit to him being there so far is that Wilson seems to be open more often. Which certainly has its benefits, but not for Adams and his fantasy managers. I would sit him until he becomes more involved in the offensive attack, but I understand if that simply isn’t possible based on where you drafted him and the injuries you are likely dealing with.
– Cory
Diontae Johnson – Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
If you have listened to our podcast, we have been saying how Johnson would likely get traded before the deadline and that is exactly what happened. Now there are several other teams we wish he went to for fantasy purposes, but Ravens are still better than a Panthers team who is sticking with Bryce Young as their QB. I am pumping the breaks on Johnson this week because he just got there, still needs to learn the playbook, and has not practiced with Lamar yet since Lamar is dealing with an injury this week. Even if Lamar suits up, they will be going in to the game with minimal time together.
– Scott
Evan Engram – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
He salvaged an otherwhise forgettable day in Week 8 with a late touchdown score, but this week he will face off with the Eagles and their talented LB group, and I don’t like his odds of seeing a good week. I would look for options with easier matchups and safer floors at the TE position this week.
– Cory
Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
Andrews has been much better the last three weeks after a horrid start on the season. He has 4 total TDs in the last three weeks which is great to see, but it is hard to bank on those each week, especially when you have so many weapons on this team who can score in the red zone. He gets Denver this week who is one of the best teams against the TEs and like I said with my WR sit, Lamar may not play this week and I do not trust anyone besides Lamar in starting Andrews.
– Scott
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
While JSN had a decent game in Week 8, posting 9.90 fantasy points in Half PPR formats, he failed to truly seize his opportunity with DK Metcalf sidelined. With DK hopeful for a Week 9 return, I would err on the side of caution and return JSN to your benches. With Lockett still in the mix and the Ken Walker doing the damn thing on the ground, I just don’t think there’s enough action to go around to keep JSN consistently relevant. As a flex play, a TD will screw this sit up for me, but I don’t think he is the primary (or even secondary) target in the redzone, so I am not losing sleep over this sit.
– Cory
Xavier Worthy – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Worthy was a sit last week and almost hit until he decided to score at the end of the game, but everything counts, so it was a Miss for us. If Worthy is not scoring, he is not doing much of anything. His targets have gone up, but receptions are staying around the same which is about 3 a game. With Hopkins likely seeing a higher snap percentage this week, we can assume the red zone looks will start going to Hopkins more. With that, Kelce starting to get it together, and Hunt scoring TDs around the goal line, there is just a difficult path for Worthy to put reasonable fantasy points.
– Scott
Xavier Legette – Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
We tried this a couple weeks ago and it blew up in my face, but I’m back baby. Xavier Legette, with Diontae Johnson now out of town, is expected to take on a much larger role in this offense. Even with rumors swirling that we may see the return of Adam Thielen in Week 9, I think that the Panthers would be wise to ease him back in and let Legette handle the bulk of the receiving duties. Carolina faces off with New Orleans, who as I mentioned in the Chuba Hubbard writeup, are struggling to be the defense we are used to seeing. I like this matchup and I love this player, so here’s hoping h can put the team on his back and make something happen for us in Week 9.
– Cory
Jalen Coker – Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
With Diontae Johnson out last week and no longer on the team, we did see Coker have a solid game in Week 8. His snap percentage is growing each week and at this point, the Panthers have nothing to lose than getting the ball to their young guys to see what they have. I would like this start more if Dalton was under center, but even with Bryce Young starting last week, Coker saw 6 targets and was able to get in to the end zone. Adam Thielen could be back this week which would hamper this a bit, but I still think they start getting the young players the. ball more.
– Scott
Xavier McKinney – Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
With 6 picks in 8 games this year, McKinney is on pace to make history, even though that’s a nearly impossible pace to keep. He comes into matchup with the Lions, who have Jared Goff playing incredible football right now, with more TDs than incompletions in his last 5 games. All that being said, while McKinney gets it done in pass defense, he is also a fantastic tackler. And with the way the Lions break through to the second level on a regular basis with their rushing attack, I like McKinney’s odds of seeing a lot of Gibbs/Montgomery coming straight at him in the open field. So I think the chances or him racking up a solid tackle number while remaining a threat to intercept the ball will combine into a nice fantasy output at your IDP DB position this week. And at a 57% start… he might even be available to pick up in some leagues!
– Cory
Brian Branch – Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Dows knows I do not play in any leagues with defensive players, so of course he picks DBs for Dart Throw this week. Branch is one of the best DBs in the league and the reason I like him this week is because the Packers should be forced to throw the ball to keep up with the high powered Lions team. With that, we will see more chances for an interception and open field tackles.
– Scott
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