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Week 17 – Start and Sits

Every week the TSF crew squares off against each other to see who has the best hit and miss percentage of the week with our positional starts and sits with 1 featured sleeper and dart throw of the week. Read and follow along with your favorite TSF analyst and get some insight on players we like this week and some deep players to keep an eye on for any given week.

Will Levis – Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Will Levis has yet to put up 20 or more points in any game this season, but he has thrown 2 TD passes three out of his last four games. The Titans are still losing, but at least we are getting some fantasy relevance from some players in this offense. They gets the Jags this week who are one of the easiest matchups for opposing QBs. Titans have nothing to lose at this point in the season and why not take full advantage against a bad defense? This could be the week he hits the 20 point mark which would be clutch in a week where we have six teams on bye.
– Scott
Sam Darnold – Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons
While Darnold has played hopscotch with the 20 point barrier for a QB hit all season, he hasn’t been on the same page with superstar WR Justin Jefferson for the past 4 weeks or so, only barely eclipsing the double digit threshold twice, and the other two times failing to post even an 8pt showing. So I would look for a monster week out of Darnold as he hopes to right the ship as he and the Vikings hurdle towards a more than likely playoff berth. I would expect Darnold to be looking for JJ early and often in this one, and if that’s the case, I think they should both be in for big days. To make this one more fair, I’ll say if Darnold is short of 22pts, I’ll take the miss here.
– Cory
Isiah Pacheco – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
TSF has been pretty in sync all season with starts and sits, but we find ourselves in a dilemma this week. I have Pacheco as a start this week while the less attractive member of TSF has him as a sit. Pacheco returned last week and was eased in which makes sense. He only had 7 rush attempt, but he did go for 44 yards on the ground which is impressive. The fact is that the Chiefs almost lost against the Raiders last week and if they want to win against a team like the Chargers, they need to do so through Pacheco. We have seen Hunt been ineffective most of the year, so if Pacheco is fully healthy, Hunt should not even be a factor.
– Scott
Tony Pollard – Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Only managing one double digit performance in the last 4 weeks is not what fantasy managers wanted to see out of Pollard as we make our way towards fantasy playoffs. Earlier in the season, Pollard was nearly a shoe-in for 15pts a week, and now it seems that he may be fading. This week however, he faces off with the Jaguars, who are struggling mightily, and have suffered a bounty of injuries on both sides of the ball. I would expect the Titans to be up in this one, given their solid defense, the shellacking they took last week against Washington, and the fact that Mac Jones is starting at QB for the Jags. If the Titans find themselves leading, Pollard should see plenty of touches, and as such, plenty of opportunity to find the endzone and post a big week.
– Cory
Calvin Ridley – Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Since Hopkins has been traded, Ridley has seen an uptick in targets and fantasy wise, but he has not seen over 12 Half PPR points in the last three weeks. I have Will Levis as a start this week and with that, Ridley has to be the WR start to help Levis reach that goal. Like I said with Levis, the Jags have a horrid defense and as long as Levis is accurate on half his balls, Ridley should have a field day in Week 14.
– Scott
DeVonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers
After missing the last two games due to a hamstring injury, Smith has been a full practice the last two days, so barring any setbacks, he should be on the field this week against the Panthers. If that’s the case, he is a must play. He provides a totally unique dynamic to this Eagles offense, and they just look like a more complete team when he is out there. And while I expect them to be up big on Carolina, we’ve seen the Panthers put up a fight against some tough teams the last couple weeks, so it’s far from guaranteed that this one will get turned into a Saquon Barkley run-fest, and could very well be a game where Hurts and Smith need to link up in order to win. I would play Smith with the utmost confidence and expect a good day from him in Week 14.
– Cory
Cade Otton – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I had Otton last week as a start and that was one of my two misses. Yes that is right, I hit 8 out of 10 last week, but who is counting right?? We have not seen double digit points out of Otton since Week 9 and when Evans went down, it seemed like Otton would be a two 5 TE going forward. He has taken a step back, but is still on field over 90% of the time. He saw 7 targets last week and although he only caught 4 for 20 yards, he was targeted in the end zone. We are scraping for starters this week and any TE that is a factor in the red zone and getting those targets, I am taking the chance on.
– Scott
Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns showed some holes in their offense last week, and while it wasn’t the TE that hurt them, they were still getting gashed through the air left and right by Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and a host of other Broncos WRs. So when Muth comes to town this week, I would expect him to find a lot of space to operate over the middle of the field, and after seeing 7 targets turn into 6 catches and a score last week, I would expect Russ Wilson to look his way more often going forward. It’s a bold play, but with the number of quality TEs on bye this week, a lot of people will be taking chances at the TE position, and I believe this is one of the safer flyers you could pick.
– Cory
Isaac Guerendo – New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants
The Niners are a mess right now and the injuries keep piling on. Not only did CMC get hurt last week, but Mason lands on IR as well. I know we say always own your handcuffs, but it is hard to own the third string RB on your fantasy roster. Guerendo was likely the highest FAAB pickup of the season this week and with that, I assume you are putting him in your lineup. We did see the Niners sign a few RBs and they did bring Pat Taylor up to the active roster, but the Niners usually always lean on one RB. With that, he should see around 20 touches this week and although the Giants have been a good defense, volume is king.
– Scott
Jerry Jeudy – Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m not sure how a guy posts a week like Jeudy did and then only has a 55% start rate the following game, but here we are. Jeudy has put together 5 straight weeks where he has looked like the guy we were promised when he was drafted, but I understand people being skeptical. He is still facing off with the Steelers defense, who are as tough as anyone against the pass this year, but Jameis Winston just shredded a Bronco defense last week who you would have said the same thing about. I’m choosing to ride with the Winston-Jeudy Express, and as a flex play at 55% started… this is a home run.
– Cory
Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesotta Vikings
I would say this is already an easy sit, but we have six teams on bye and Cousins is going against his former team. REVENGE GAME!!!! As much as I like a revenge game as much as the next person, I just do not know how you can trust Cousins this week and going forward. He has had his big weeks this season, but the last two weeks he has yet to hit over 7 fantasy points. He did have some tough matchups, but with an offense of London, Pitts, Mooney, and Bijan, there really is no excuse to not out up numbers. The Vikings are one the best defenses and teams in the NFL and if Cousins has another bad outing, we may not see him play the rest of the season.
– Scott
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
It’s more of the same argument I’ve been making for weeks now, and that’s simply that Mahomes doesn’t have to throw the ball and put up huge numbers for the Chiefs to beat you this year. And yeah, sure, they’ve lucked into some wins via mishaps from some other teams the last couple weeks, but so what. That’s not the reason Mahomes hasn’t been putting up points. It’s just that he doesn’t have to in order to win, and W’s are all that matter to NFL teams. Only two weeks this season has Mahomes gone over 20 points, and this week is likely not going to be another one. He faces off with the Charger defense, who always play the Chiefs tight. I would prefer to take a shot on a lot of other QBs this week, and seeing Mahomes start percentage dip to 84%, I’m guessing a lot of other people are in agreement with me.
– Cory
Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Brooks is now healthy and taking some work away from Hubbard. Even though that is true, that is not the only reason I am sitting Hubbard. The Eagles run defense is one of the best in the NFL and have been giving teams hell all season. Hubbard is still seeing the field way more than Brooks, but Brooks could carve in to his work even more this week. The biggest factor is that the Panthers will likely be down early and Hubbard did not get a single target last week. The targets out of the backfield did go to Brooks, so if they need two pass the more, Brooks may be the player on the field more in this situations. The Panthers have nothing to say for, so why not see what you have in your rookie RB when you are down.
– Scott
Isiah Pacheco – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Now 62% is still a modest number in terms of start percentage, and I know a good chunk of the people starting Pacheco are likely doing so because they have no other choice during this Week 14 Bye Week Hell… but I would implore you to search for another option here. I know last week they were definitely easing Pacheco back in, but with where KC stands in terms of W/L on the season, there is no reason for them to overuse Pacheco in what equates to a meaningless game, even if it is against a division rival. Win, lose, or draw, KC does not need to risk their star RB’s health to win this game. And all of that being said, LAC has shown they actually have a pretty dang solid defense this year. I don’t see any upside in playing Pacheco until you’ve seen him on the field looking like the guy we all fell in love with last season.
– Cory
Deebo Samuel – San Fransisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
So many players on the Niners are injured, so you would assume Deebo will have a much larger role. That was true in the past, but has not been that same case in 2024. We are used to seeing Deebo run the ball more when the RBs are hurt, but he has been used more in the kick return game this season. Unless you are in SFB, those return yards do not factor in to fantasy scoring in majority of leagues. He also gets the Bears this week who are top 10 against opposing WRs. Deebo has not looked like the Deebo we are used to seeing and is missing the burst we know and love. Jennings is the only WR I would play in the offense which is crazy to say, but this is where the Niners are this year.
– Scott
DK Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
It could be his knee, or his ankle, or his shoulder, or his chest… but whatever it is… DK is beat up this season, and it’s starting to show on the field. He hasn’t commanded the sheer volume of targets that we’ve come to expect out of him, and whether it’s the injuries and part of the gameplan, or Geno Smith just not on the same page, or maybe it’s just their timing being ever so slightly off… it doesn’t matter. What’s important is his lack of production, and even against a Cardinals defense that hasn’t lit the world on fire, I will be looking for other options at WR in Week 14. If you have to play him as a flex play just to have a valid lineup with all the teams on bye, I get it. But if you’re expecting WR2 numbers out of DK, I would tell you to temper those expectations. A TD can naturally make all of these points mute, but I like my chances elsewhere for that TD this week. Put it this way… DK won’t be in my Anytime TD Scorers Parlay in Week 14, and that’s gotta be his first week not on that slip in quite some time.
– Cory
Evan Engram – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
The biggest case with Engram in the past was he does not score TDs, but he fixed that case last season. Unfortunately, he is back in the same boat this season and only has 1 TD in 13 weeks. In games where he does not have a TD, he has only posted double digit fantasy points once. I get the targets are high for Engram and that is what you want for a TE, but most of them are coming from short check downs and he really has not been used in the red zone. Most of the points from the Jags have come with deep shots to Brian Thomas or Parker Washington and against a tough defense in the Titans, I still cannot trust Engram.
– Scott
George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
The 2024 Niners have one of the more disjointed and stagnant offensive attacks we’ve seen out of SF in a while. And it could be the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball, no doubt about it, but that doesn’t change the fact that they just seem to be stuck in neutral. Aiyuk, CMC, Jordan Mason… all done for the season. Purdy nursing an injury to his throwing arm that seems to be having a significant impact, for the second year in a row. Deebo has been ineffective and hardly involved, and Kittle has been much the same, though he has at least surfaced here and there for some big weeks. I just don’t think a team struggling as much as they are on offense is going to pop against the Bears defense, who have actually been one of the better units in the league against the pass, however outlandish that may sound for a team who just fired their head coach. I know he’s a stud, and I know you might not have better options, but I would look for a guy who has a better chance of a safe floor with some upside potential over Kittle this week who is likely boom or bust.
– Cory
Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
It is a sad year when you see our flex sits as Waddle and Cooper. They should at least be WR sits if anything, but both of them have been hard trust any given week. Even in nye week hell, we are fine sitting these players. I believe we had Waddle as a sit most of the season, but we did have a miss in Week 12 when he went off against the Pats. He scored over 20 while he was likely on your bench and then followed that up 4 catches for 53 yards. The Jets are a laughing stock team, but the one thing they are good at is their secondary against WRs. Expect Waddle to come up short yet again.
– Scott
Amari Cooper – Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Scott’s been saying it for a couple weeks now and I’m joining the party… Cooper simply is not the guy in Buffalo. He is on the field plenty, but he’s not getting the looks going his way anywhere near what we expected when they traded for him. Instead, we’ve seen the RBs, both Cook and Davis be involved, with Shakir and Coleman getting enough targets of their own to not leave much for Cooper. Definitely not what I expected to see, and maybe in some clear weather inside the dome in LA this will change, but I’m not banking on that enough to allow Cooper to be in any of my lineups in what is likely a make or break week for most people in fantasy.
– Cory
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants
I will admit I did have D Wicks as a Sleeper for Thursday Night Football and he did not hit. I will still take the miss this week because of it, but I might as well toss out another Sleeper for you guys. MVS has been a frustrating player almost his entire career with highs and major lows, but he has had double digit points in every game the last three weeks. His snap count has gone up every week since he has joined the team and Carr and the Saints do not mind to throw a few deep shots a few time each game. If you told me MVS would be the number 1 pass option for an NFL team this season, I would have laughed, but here we are.
– Scott
Brandin Cooks – Dallas Cowboys vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I actually love this sleeper play and I’m shocked at how low Cooks’ start percentage is, at a measly 6%. He returned from a 7 game absence last week and immediately saw 7 targets go his way, although he was only able to secure 3 of them. Despite that poor conversion rate, he did manage to find the endzone, saving his fantasy day. I would expect Cooks to be used much the same this week, and while he is clearly playing second fiddle to Ceedee Lamb, there should be plenty of looks to go around, as I expect Dallas will be trailing in this one. One thing to note, he and Lamb both have missed practice all week, but assuming this is more of an injury maintenance thing than anything more serious, all my points above still stand.
– Cory
Jonathan Brooks – Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Dart Throw pick this week is RB which seems the way to go with so many key players on byes. With all the teams on bye, we are going to have to look at backup RBs on NFL rosters that we are able to plug-and-play. This will be the third game Brooks is playing in this year and with a small ramp up the first two weeks, we should see his snap count go even higher. Like I said with my Chuba sit, Brooks was the pass catching back last week and with the Panthers likely being down, we should Brooks okay even more. You held on the Brooks all season and there are six teams on bye; if you aren’t playing him this week, then when will you?
– Scott
Braelon Allen – New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Now I don’t expect Breece Hall to sit this week, despite a slow start to the practice week, and if it’s announced that Hall is in fact sitting, I will change this. But even assuming Hall is on the field, I would expect the split to be much more close to even, or perhaps even leaning in Braelon’s favor. If that’s the case, against a porous Miami run defense, there should be no shortage of rushing yards to gobble up for the talented rookie. And if Breece is as dinged up as we’re being told, the goal line touches should surely fall to Allen as well. All of this makes him a great dart throw, and a guy you should speculatively add ahead of Sunday’s contest.
– Cory
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