Week 11 – Start and Sits

Every week the TSF crew squares off against each other to see who has the best hit and miss percentage of the week with our positional starts and sits with 1 featured sleeper and dart throw of the week. Read and follow along with your favorite TSF analyst and get some insight on players we like this week and some deep players to keep an eye on for any given week.

Starts
Sits
Sleepers
Dart Throws

QB
RB
WR
TE
FLEX

Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Kyler Murray will play his fourth game this season and so far he has been pretty solid since returning from injury. The one thing that surprises me is the managers who are concerned about starting him in Week 13 because the Steelers have played well against QBs. That is true, but if you also look at his previous three weeks, he has not had an easy time against any of those teams he has faced. We need to remember when Kyler is healthy, he is one of the best fantasy QBs in all of football and even though he faces a hard Steelers’ defense, he needs to be considered matchup proof once agian.

– Scott

Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Division rival? Check. Revenge game? Check. Piss poor opponent? Extra check! This game has all the makings of a blowout and I am happy to ride the Baker Mayfield wave for one more week as he faces off against the Panthers in Week 13. Baker has played well this year, not well enough to take commanding control of a weak division, but well overall nonetheless. And I expect this to be a game where he gets a number of his pass catchers involved, as well as Rachaad White out of the backfield. I think it is safe to project him for a 20+ point week, and as such, expect success out of him in his game.

– Cory

Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I’ll probably get made fun of by the TSF Boys because “this is an easy one”… but I don’t think anyone is starting any Patriot player with confidence right now. And as inept as Mac Jones has been, we knew what we could expect out of Rhamondre Stevenson when he was tied to him. Now with Zappe looking to be the QB in Week 13, everything is up in the air. And I think we have to look at this as a situation in which only one thing can be true… Rhamondre is the best weapon the Pats have on offense, and they would be fools not to figure out ways to get the ball in his hand. The Chargers are far from a lockdown defense, but if the Pats hope to move the ball at all, they will need to get their talented RB involved, and that’s exactly what I think happens in this one. Rhamondre has posted 3 straight games with 100 total yards from scrimmage, so let’s hope he can do it again this week.

– Cory

De’Von Achane – Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Achane is expected to play this week, barring any setback on Sunday, and this is something most fantasy owners have been waiting for. We saw have three monster games earlier in the season before going down with a knee injury. I get that people may be hesitant to start him his first week back, but if you own him, you need to play him. I do not believe the team would activate him if they were just going to use him on a few plays. I think we see the same role he had when him and Mostert were both tearing it up while on the field together. The best part of this is that he gets the Raiders and this may be the best matchup for an RB in the NFL. What a perfect game to come back to and be able to get your feet back under yourself.

– Scott

Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

The narrative I am hearing a lot right now, and seeing in the start % numbers, is that this game is going to be a blowout so people should sit Mike Evans because it’s going to be the Rachaad White show early on. What I like to remind people is that it actually has to BECOME a blowout for that to happen, and I firmly believe they will use Evans to make that a reality. It appears to be his team while Chris Godwin is fighting for scraps to remain relevant. If Evans comes out and posts another 2 TD day where all he does is catch two red zone targets and then go sit on the bench the rest of the game while Tampa pounds the ball… I think everyone involved would call that a successful day at the office for ole number 13.

– Cory

Nico Collins – Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals

NICOOOOOO! (As my best friend says every week). Collins is having a great season and sits at WR16 on the season and that is counting his bye and him missing last week’s matchup. At this point, the Texans are crushing it for fantasy and they are able to have multiple players show up on the stat sheet weekly. Noah Brown is ruled out for this game, so any worry that Collins would not be able to get the targets in his first game back is gone. Now this is more of a start Collins and Tank Dell writeup. Both of these guys should be able to have another great day playing alongside each other and with Stroud playing the way he is, you have to trust all Houston WRs going forward.

– Scott

Trey McBride – Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I really hope you listened to TSF over a month ago when we were telling you to pick up McBride before he has a big game. At this point in the season, McBride is now viewed as a TE1 and in my mind, is a top 6 TE weekly for the rest of the season. This will be a massive test because the Steelers have done well against TEs, but I am almost putting him as matchup proof TE at this point. He is averaging just around 8 targets a game since Kyler has returned and seems to be a security blanket for him. He has yet to score a TD with Kyler, but expect that to change this week.

– Scott

Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Unlike some of the other names on my start list this week, Freiermuth doesn’t have swirling rumors about what his role will be this week because of a projected opinion about how the game will turn out. Instead, people are looking past this matchup entirely, and forgetting that Muth posted 16.50 points last week without finding the endzone, good for the second highest TE day of Week 12. I expect to see more of the same against Arizona this week, as Pickett will once more look to his big bodied TE to get him out of a jam when he just can’t seem to get his WRs involved. We all wanted to see what the Pitt offense would look like after Matt Canada was let go, and if last week is any indication, it is going to be a TE heavy attack. At only 55% started this week, I think Freiermuth is vastly underrated and should outperform people’s expectations once again in Week 13.

– Cory

Zack Moss – Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Okay you caught me, I’m cookin’ the books! Moss is all but certainly the starting RB in Indy this week, but his start percentage is still hovering around a modest 58%. Now this could climb upwards as more news is released about JT, but as it stands now, JT is 99% sitting this one out, given the fact he had legitimate surgery on Wednesday. So i fully expect to see Moss as the lead back, and I fully expect to see him return to the form we saw him in when he was dominating the NFL earlier this year during JT’s previous absence. If that’s the case, his start % needs to be much higher, but at 58% currently, I am more than happy to use him as my flex play!

– Cory

Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles

I will not write too much on Rice as a start and if you would like to know more, please listen to our Trade Deadline podcast where we go in to details on why Rice is a great start as well as a great buy low player this week. KC is coming off their bye and the two games before that, Rice was not able to put up double digit in any of those games. I do not believe this was mainly Rice’s fault, but the entire offense was a shell of themselves in those two games and no player on KC really had a solid fantasy day. Coming off the bye, the Chiefs look to rebound and in a big way against Philly. This is a Super Bowl rematch and you know this game should be high scoring. I want to start the WR1 on this KC offense in any game where it is going to be a shoot out.

– Scott

QB
RB
WR
TE
Flex

Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland Browns

Stafford had a big game in Week 12, totally agree. But I expect to see a lot more resistance from this Browns defense than Arizona was able to muster up last week. The Browns have been hanging in games this season based purely off of impressive defensive play, and I expect that’s what we see again this week. Not to mention, Staffy failed to get Puka or Kupp involved effectively last week, instead, we saw Kyren Williams, Royce Freeman, and Tyler Higbee have huge games. I don’t expect that trend to continue, although I would find it near impossible to sit Kyren this week, even with my healthy skepticism. Overall, I think this proves to be a tough matchup for the Rams, and I would rather lean on someone else at the QB position who I think has more upside.

– Cory

Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Geno had his best game of the season last week and his second game over 20 points, but that also came against the Commanders who seem to be tanking after selling their best defensive players at the deadline. It was great to see and I am a Geno fan, but I am pumping the breaks on this one. I do not believe his Week 10 success is going to carry over to this week against the Rams. We saw Geno struggle Week 1 against the Rams and he was not even to get you 10 fantasy points. The Rams have also looked better on defense since the start of the season. You can also go back to last year when he played the Rams and he was not able to get much going in 2022 either. Hopefully there are better days ahead, but it will not be this week.

– Scott

Breece Hall – New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons

It’s no secret that Breece has struggled to produce at the same level he did in his rookie year, and while that cannot all be placed squarely on him, his stats are still his stats, and that’s all that counts in fantasy. His OL has been a constant mix of moving pieces, Mekhi Becton seems to go out on a weekly basis with a new injury, and his QB play is so subpar that high school JV teams wouldn’t be threatened by an attempt at a pass. Instead, defenses pin their ears back and wait for Hall touch the ball, and then they pounce. It’s not fair to Breece at all, but that’s the reality of this Jets team until they get Aaron Rodgers back, and even possibly after that. I would sit Breece this week against an Atlanta defense that has surprised us all in how solid they’ve been for almost the entire season, I think there are easier matchups to be had in Week 13, and RBs that have a higher ceiling as a result.

– Cory

Rachaad White – Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers

What Dows said below. You will see that both of us have White as a sit this week and we did not even plan it, but I believe we make some of the same points anyways. White has been crushing it the last month, so this is not a knock against White or what he has done, but he has had some pretty easy matchups the last month. When white faces tough defenses, he struggles to even get to 10 fantasy points and this week he gets the Niners. They do rank third best against the RB, but we also have to remember that they now have Chase Young. We saw what this team did to Travis Etienne last week and if he was not able to get it going, I am not sure White will be able to.

– Scott

Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

96% of people are still starting Chase this week, and that shocks me. Even knowing how good he is, after watching Jake Browning play QB the last couple of weeks, I just don’t have the faith to do it anymore. Chase managed to snag a catch on a broken/fluke play that went for 31 yards, but you take that away and it’s a 3 catch game for 50 yards. That’s not the type of production you can tolerate when trying to hunt down a playoff spot as we near the end of the Fantasy Football Regular Season. I’d rather spend a week with Chase on my bench waiting for Browning to prove he can support Chase at a high level than waste one more week starting Chase just to be disappointed again.

– Cory

George Pickens – Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Since Diontae has come back, Pickens has taken a step back fantasy wise. We kept saying how at least one of these WRs will have a good game weekly, but we saw both Pickens and Johnson have miserable fantasy days in Week 10. They get the Browns this week and this is one of the toughest matchups for WRs in fantasy. His targets have gone down and although he is able capable of making those big plays downfield, it does not help that his QB cannot get it to him and he will be covered by one of the best secondaries in football.

– Scott

Evan Engram – Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals

As someone who hoped to see Engram build on his success a year ago, it hurts me to sit him, but I think we’ve reached the point where it has to happen. He’s still ranked as the TE12 on the year, but he has only gone into double digits twice all year in terms of fantasy points, and hasn’t done so in the last 4 weeks. I think there are streaming options available with a better shot at popping for a big game. However, if you’re a team that’s strong elsewhere, I can understand trotting out the guy who is a safe 6-7 points per week, but if you need more than that, Engram doesn’t seem to be your guy this season. Not to mention, his impending matchup with Cincy is not a great one for TEs… they have elite cover LBs who can match a guy like Engram stride for stride, and leave you wishing you picked up Freiermuth from your waiver wire for next to nothing.

– Cory

David Njoku – Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Njoku has been also great the past three games and no one has really talked about it. He is averaging 11.7 fantasy points per game in that span and right over 7 targets a game as well. This is what we usually want out of a TE weekly, but we do have a new starting QB in Cleveland. With Watson out for the season, we will see Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week and it sounds like it really could be a different QB each week for the Browns. With all that, it seems to be a mess and I really cannot trust Njoku with a new TE. He has two TDs in the last three weeks, so most of his points are coming from him getting in the end zone. This is not something I can trust weekly.

– Scott

James Conner – Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Despite Conner being a damn fine running back in the NFL, I’m sitting him as a flex this week due to the fact that he is only being started in 60% of leagues at the time of writing. And that could be due to the fact that he is yet to pop big since coming back off his injury and IR stint, or it could be due to the tough matchup facing off with the Steelers, but whatever it is, I’m tending to agree with the 40% of people who are already sitting him. I think this is a bad matchup where the gamescript will not work in his favor, and I think he is still not performing at pre-injury levels. As such, I’d wait another week on Conner and hope he gets it all sorted out during their bye the following week.

– Cory

Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Hubbard is the starting RB over Miles Sanders in Carolina and this is something we saw and talked about going back to Week 5 of the season. Great, we were right….that does not mean he is doing a good job though. He has not done much of anything since taking over the starting role and since their Week 7 bye, he has yet to get you double digit fantasy points in any game. This is also not a write up of how Sanders could take the role back because I believe both of these guys lack what it takes to be an NFL RB. The also get Dallas this week who has been playing out of their minds lately. This game should be a blow out and the running game may be gone after the first quarter.

– Scott

Brandin Cooks – Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks

Only a 34% start heading into TNF, I think Cooks could come off as a valuable sleeper option after this game is all said and done. I understand that the Cowboys are projected to roll over the Seahawks, but even in games when they’ve been up big, they’ve continued to throw the football regularly. Atop that, Tariq Woolen likely covers CeeDee Lamb, leaving Devon Witherspoon to matchup with Cooks, and I’m not certain he has the raw speed to cover Cooks, never mind what’s going to happen when Cooks shows his veteran route running prowess agains the youngster. Now, we could see what we see all too often with Cooks, and watch as he draws multiple penalties for pass interference deep down the field, but I’m hoping against hope that he manages to snag one of these this week and actually convert it into points that show up in our fantasy lineups.

– Cory

Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I did see that Dows had a Packers WR as a sleeper this week, so I am going to bounce off of him and also pick a Packers WR. I am going with Reed in this one and mostly because he has been better than Watson the last few games. His snap percentages are streaky, so he could play 75% of snaps or give you 40%, we just do not know weekly. I do love this matchup for all WRs on this team and all three of these guys could really have strong games. Reed has been a player used more in the red zone of late, so I am banking on another TD against a weak LAC defense.

– Scott

Demario Douglas – New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers

While this may be throwing up a prayer, that’s exactly what the Patriots need right now. And hey… someone has to score eventually right? Well… after watching Chicago score while only scoring 4 field goals, I guess not. But Zappe is looking to be the QB under center this week, and if wants that to be a thing going forward, he’s got to make some plays. The only guy capable of making plays at the WR position on the Pats right now appears to be Demario Douglas, so if you’re truly up against it and need a guy who could randomly go off for a big night… you could do a lot worse than Douglas.

– Cory

Luke Musgrave – Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Chargers

With all the success we have seen from TEs lately, we decided to make our Dart Throw a TE for Week 11. Now Dows went a different direction and picked one of the oldest players in the NFL even though I said we wanted to focus on the young TEs, but what the hell do I know right? Musgrave is my pick this week and I believe he will be the next young TE to put up some numbers. The biggest reason is the lack of production from the WR position and the matchup is great. He is a raw player, but seems to be getting more used to NFL speed.

– Scott