Thursday Night Preview-Week 4

The NFL season keeps chugging right along, already onto Week 4, and this week we have another stellar Thursday Night Football matchup. Just kidding… It’s the Jacksonville Jaguars who head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. 

First off, we got breaking news today that CJ Henderson (you know, the star 2nd year CB who was a top 10 draft pick a year ago and has been widely regarded as one of the best picks in the draft) has been traded by the Jaguars to the Panthers for Dan Arnold and a 3rd round pick. Why? No one knows. Sure, the Jags don’t have a TE on the roster besides James O’Shaughnessy, but is Darnold really the answer for all your TE woes? Is he what will make this offense finally click? Is he the answer to Trevor Lawrence’s prayers? I really doubt it, and giving up a young cornerstone of your defense for a TE and a whatever draft pick isn’t the way to build long term success in the NFL. Urban Meyer may have just been fleeced. 

But in any case, while not a premier matchup on paper, there are a lot of fantasy implications for this matchup, as both teams boast a solid number of guys you probably bought into at the onset of the season. First, let’s address arguably the most important breakout player of this young season, Ja’Marr Chase. While his TD-Catch conversion rate probably can’t be sustained for the entire season, it’s clear that he is Burrow’s favorite target and the two of them are on the same page early on this season. With the aforementioned departure of CJ Henderson, a lockdown man corner, Chase should find even more space to operate. Currently number 6 in PPG scoring for WRs, Chase has run the least routes of any of the guys on that list (Cooks, Mike Williams, Kupp, Lockett, DK, and Chase himself). You’re also looking at him currently hoarding a 25% target share in a season where Burrow has yet to surpass 30 pass attempts in a single game. If/when that number goes up, Chase could eat even more. 

HOWEVAHHHH! This game may not be the one where all that comes to fruition. The Bengals will likely rely on the strength of their passing attack early, build a lead against a Jags defense who is losing pieces faster than me losing my car keys after getting home from work, and then turn to Joe Mixon to seal the game with a power run attack and some halfway decent defense. 

While the Bengals D isn’t often regarded as one of the better groups in the league, they just shut down Big Ben and the Steelers, so they should look to do the same to Trevor Lawrence and the Jags in Week 4. Lawrence has struggled mightily and has not only looked subpar, but has made some mental mistakes that we didn’t anticipate seeing out of the highly touted rookie. These are mistakes that we didn’t see at the college level, and creates concerns about his readiness for the speed of the pro game. Simultaneously, there are already Jags fans calling for Urban Meyer’s head, so maybe it’s not Lawrence at all, it’s just the playcalling? 

Either way, Marvin Jones is still a must play, as the veteran WR has been the only consistent part of the Jaguar offense through the first 3 weeks of the season. DJ Chark has been up and down, and appears, for now, to be nearing that TD-Dependent WR zone that you hate to see, but if you need to play him as a flex I think you could do much worse this week. Laviska is the one person we expected to see break out this season, and that has yet to happen. For now, I need to park Laviska on the bench until I can see an uptick in his usage and effectiveness. James Robinson remains the only viable runner in the Jaguar ground game, while Carlos Hyde is not yet startable unless you’re in a hyper deep dynasty league, and even then I wouldn’t recommend it as his floor is a dead zero every single week. And rounding out their fantasy viable players, Trevor Lawrence, for this week, is only a start in 2QB formats, and even with that I think there is sizable risk. Dan Arnold is a question mark to play, but even if he does, I need to see him in the offense first before I am risking him in my lineup. 

On the Bengals side, to reiterate, Chase is a must start. So is Mixon. These two should be heavily involved. Burrow is a safe 2QB start, but I would not rely on him to have a massive output in single QB formats, as gameflow likely works against him in what should be a fairly comfortable margin of victory. Tee Higgins is still dealing with a shoulder injury that sidelined him for last week’s win, but if he plays he should be in your starting fantasy lineup as well. He has played well this year so no reason to let a shoulder injury scare you off quite yet. Monitor his health and practice participation throughout the week, a full session on Wednesday would likely put him on track to start Thursday night. Tyler Boyd is another start, but for both he and Higgins I would temper your expectations for them to finish closer to the flex range than WR1’s or 2’s on the week. Again, gameflow likely won’t help their cause, and Burrow’s attempts aren’t in the 50-60 range per game like they were last year. 

Overall, this isn’t the top tier TNF game we hope for from an NFL standpoint, but for fantasy you should see a lot of players active and expecting decent weeks. This is why fantasy football is so great, it makes us care so much more deeply than we normally would about a Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars game. It would be great to see T-Law finally get on track, but I don’t think this is the game it all clicks for him, and instead we get to see the Burrow-Lawrence LSU-Clemson rematch we’ve been waiting for where Burrow improves to 2-0 against his former college rival!