Thursday Night Preview-Week 3

It is already Week 3 in the NFL and we have another Thursday Night Football stinker for you all! Carolina (2-0) will travel to Houston (1-1) in this showdown. In all fairness, the Texans have looked a lot better than we all expected to start the season, but they will now be without their starting QB in Tyrod Taylor tonight. The rookie QB Davis Mills will get his first NFL start and if you told me that Mills would start in the NFL before Trey Lance I would have laughed, but this is the world we live in.

There were a lot of questions before the season on whether Sam Darnold would be the answer for Carolina, and although it has only been two weeks, it’s looking great so far as the Panthers have played well and sit on a 2-0 record. The defense has been poor the last couple seasons, but to start 2021, they have turned it around and look to have one of the better defenses in the NFL. Kudos to the organization and so far to a healthy CMC. To start with the defensive side, they have not let up over 14 points in a single game and have 10 combined sacks over 2 weeks to go along with 3 total interceptions. Sure, they did play the Jets and a bad looking Jameis Winston, but compared to previous seasons, it is a massive step in the right direction.

Now let’s get to the Carolina offense that has looked a hell of a lot different with a healthy CMC and Sam Darnold. Darnold has not been lighting the world on fire, but is currently QB15 on the season while averaging a little over 19 fantasy points per game, which is much better than what we thought it would be. Another question we all had going into the season was if it would be DJ Moore or Robby Anderson as the WR1 on the team, and at this point it appears that DJ Moore is the number 1 WR there and is a favorite target for Darnold. He has 19 targets after 2 weeks and has brought in 14 of them for 159 yards while adding a TD. Great to see for a guy who had a down year in 2020, because we knew the talent was always there. Robby has gone back to his big play role down the field, which is great for the team, but does not help fantasy owners much on a consistent basis. CMC has picked up right where he left off and is currently RB2 on the season, while not scoring fewer than 22 points in Half PPR formats. He has over 20 rushing attempts in both games and is a massive factor in the receiving game, which could also be a reason for Robby Anderson’s lack of production..

On the Houston side, they have done far better than we would have thought which is why I am saddened that Tyrod Taylor will miss over a month. He was playing well, currently at QB14 on the season. Under Tyrod, Brandin Cooks was the WR11 on the year and he has been peppered with targets (21) and yards (210). As well as Tyord and Cooks have played, we cannot say the same about the running game. Ingram had a solid Week 1, but it came off of 26 carries and a TD. He came back down to Earth in Week 2 with less than 5 fantasy points. Both Philip Lindsay and David Johnson have factored in as well, and both have scored TDs on the season. The biggest thing to take out of this is to stay away from Houston RBs, because you really do not know which to trust, if any, in any given week.

With Tyrod Taylor now out and Davis Mills starting, this is a big hit to an already underwhelming team. Brandin Cooks is likely the only one you were starting on a weekly basis, and even though I do believe he is worth keeping in your starting lineup, it is still a hit for him and I am not sure he will see the same production with Mills under center. They may lean on the running game more, but that is easier said than done. Even if they want to, they will likely be down in several contests and they will be forced to put the ball in the air more than they would like. This is why I love the Carolina Panthers defense this week. They have already balled out the first two weeks and get another cake matchup against a rookie QB. If you are playing in DFS contests that count the Thursday night game, they are the defense to put in your lineups and they are not that expensive either. They should light the young Davis Mills up, poor fella.

As for fantasy players in this contest, you are obviously starting CMC and DJ Moore against a swiss cheese style defense in Houston. Although he has been boom or bust, I believe Robby Anderson is worth a flex start (don’t put him in your flex since he plays Thursday night, but you know what I mean). Even though there is a new QB starting for Houston, Cooks is still worth a start and should be viewed as a WR3 based on volume alone. The Texans will be down and they will have to throw, and with Ammendola and Nico Collins out, he is really the only one left. Sam Darnold is a start in 2 QB leagues for sure, but other than the players I named, I cannot trust anyone else in this game. Sit all Houston RBs and just do not get cute with it. If this is a blow out, which it really could be, we should see more out of Chubba Hubbard as well and don’t be surprised if he rips off a TD run tonight.

Congrats on your first NFL career start Davis Mills, but I am sorry you have to go against this defense on Thursday night. Better days ahead for you fella!