The Curious Case of Puka Nacua

One of the biggest questions in 2023 for redraft leagues and dynasty leagues alike has been: What will Puka Nacua be able to do with the return of Cooper Kupp? And through the two weeks since Kupp was activated off IR, we have two drastically different answers.

In Kupp’s first week back, the Rams played the Eagles in a game they trailed most of the way. Kupp posted a 95% snap count while seeing 8 catches on 12 targets for 118 yards (15.80 fantasy points, Half PPR), while Nacua turned in an equally impressive game, posting 7 catches on 11 targets for 71 yards and a TD (16.60 fantasy points). So the answer, to many, seemed to be clear… Of course he can still have value! See we told you! He’s the WR4 on the season, he earned a role and he ain’t leaving!

Wellllllllllll, not so fast.

Here comes Week 6 against the bottom barrel Arizona Cardinals, who admittedly, have outplayed everyone’s expectations through this point in the season, but are ultimately not a magnificently deep team and are still susceptible to being blown out by superior competition. And that’s what happened on Sunday. The Rams invited them into their stadium and beat the brakes off of them, and although the game was close in the first half, LA really pulled away in the second. And how did the WRs look in this contest? Well Kupp looked like the Kupp we’ve grown accustomed to seeing, 9 targets for 7 catches 148 yards and a TD (24.30 fantasy points). Puka, however, took a step back and only turned his 7 targets into 4 catches for 26 yards (4.60 fantasy points).

So what does this mean for Puka owners out there? Well those who can take a wait and see approach, that’s probably most advisable. But if you’re a fantasy owner who is fighting for every win in your league, and Puka might be a valuable trade asset, you might need to make a call on him sooner. Is he worth the stash and the assumption that he returns to what we saw while Kupp was out or in that first week back? Or is this game against Arizona the new norm now that Kupp is back at full force?

For the answer to that, I think we need to take a quick trip down memory lane, and dig deep into some numbers as we go. But before we do that, I think we need to check off some important boxes so we are all operating with the same understanding. First and foremost, Cooper Kupp is the number one WR in this offense. If you don’t believe that, or if you believe that Puka has usurped him, is more talented, or has a better connection with Stafford, just stop reading now, because we aren’t going to agree on anything. Kupp has his role, and he is back in it now. The question we’re trying to answer is, what is Puka’s role now that Kupp is back. Hopefully we’re on the same page there.

Secondly, I think it’s important to make sure we agree on the fact that Kupp is a generationally talented WR, as this is going to relate importantly in regards to who I am about to compare him to historically. He has multiple top 5 WR finishes in fantasy football, would likely have more if he hadn’t been hurt, and is clearly a focal point of a high powered offense. Okay.. we still on the same page? Let’s get to the fun stuff.

For that, we go allllllll the way back to 2009, Stafford’s first year in the NFL. He played 10 games after winning the starting job over Daunte Culpepper in camp, but missed some time with an injured shoulder and knee. These injuries led to a less than stellar campaign, posting 2267 yds, 13 TD, and 20 INT. He was still able to elevate Calvin Johnson to WR22, but Bryant Johnson (WR74) and Dennis Northcutt (WR88) were not as fortunate.

And this is where we begin our journey, looking at the WR finishes Stafford has supported throughout his career and what that may mean for Puka going forward. Because while WR output relies partly upon their own talent, they are forever tied to the quarterbacks throwing them the balls, the coaches calling the plays, and the flow of games every given week.

In year two, Stafford saw marked improvement, but would injure his shoulder early in the season, and would eventually be shut down for the year. So anything that happened with WRs this year, is unfortunately mostly irrelevant.

But now in Year 3, Stafford starts to string some healthy years together so we can really dive into some stats.

So what do we learn from all of these numbers? How do we interpret them?

I think the important thing to look at first is the averages that Matt Stafford has posted over his career in seasons where he is fully healthy and gives you a full slate of games. Because I think we can all agree, Puka, Kupp, and any other pass catchers take a huge nosedive if Stafford goes down and a backup comes in. So this allows us to eliminate the 2009, 2010, 2019, and 2022 seasons from consideration. Those would only serve to artificially drop the averages, which would be quite unfair given the fact the 2019 season was particularly promising for Stafford before his injury.

In healthy seasons, Stafford averages 4469.4 yards, with his top 2 seasons in terms of yardage coming at the early years of his career in 2011 and 2012 while playing with all time freak Calvin Johnson. He also averages 28.5 TDs and 13.5 INTs in those same 10 years. These averages would yield 279.76 fantasy points, which in 2022 would have landed Stafford just shy of Tom Brady as QB12.

So why do I give you all these Staffy stats? Well because of what I said above. WRs are inherently tied to their QB play, and while Stafford is consistent, he is consistently at the backend of QB1’s. His rushing numbers will bump him up a touch, but nothing too major, so let’s not get hung up there, as his rushing stats don’t help his WRs grow their numbers either.

And if we consider Cooper Kupp who averages 1325 yards per healthy season, Tyler Higbee averaging 567 per healthy season during Stafford’s tenure, and the RBs who average 337.5 yards under Stafford, we’re taking away 2229.5 yards from a 4469.4 total. Leaving just 2239.9 yards to go around, or in other words, 132ish yards per game. Now if every single one of these yards went to Puka, I’d be thrilled with his prospects for the remainder of the season. Unfortunately, that’s not the case, as we’ve already seen guys like Tutu Atwell, Van Jefferson (since departed but someone will fill his shoes as well), Brycen Hopkins, and the ever present thorn-in-my-side Ben Skowronek taking snaps, getting targets, and stealing yards. Stafford is right on target with is RB usage, RBs projecting for 348.5 yards receiving this season, so let’s consider them accounted for, and our numbers start to make a lot of sense.

Now let’s consider what we’ve seen historically and as outlined in the table above. How many times has Stafford supported 2 top 10 WRs? Answer? Zero times. How many times has he supported 2 WR1s (top 12 WRs) in fantasy? Zero times. How many times has he supported 2 WR2s (top 24) in fantasy? Twice in his entire 14 year (currently in year 15) career. That’s not giving me the best of feelings.

One time he supported two top 24 WRs was in 2014 when Calvin Johnson got hurt and missed 3 games in the middle of the season. The difference is, this was Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, two guys who played polar opposite roles in a high flying Detroit offense. Tate also posted his two highest receiving yard totals in the weeks Megatron missed, and then came back down to reality upon his return.

The other time was in 2017 with Marvin Jones and Golden Tate, and I don’t think either of these guys are being mistaken for Cooper Kupp or Calvin Johnson anytime soon. In an offense where there is no clear alpha-WR… sure, Stafford spread it around a bit more out of pure necessity. But the argument remains, when he as a pure alpha WR on the field, he will hone in on him and the rest of the WRs on his team will fight over the scraps.

Let’s do one more exercise with averages to drive home my point. The average finish for Stafford’s top WR option is WR11.5, while the average finish for his second option is WR45. So the idea that Stafford will all of a sudden buck these trends and support two WRs at elite levels is a losing proposition. Even if he does, it’s sheerly based on luck and largely will be impacted by the huge volume Puka saw in the first 4 games of the season, that is unlikely to be replicated here on out. If I’m a Puka owner looking at these numbers, I would be trading him as soon as possible. The problem is, the Puka owners, despite slamming their fists on the table about how great he is and will be, are still trying to trade him in many leagues, and are having little success because no one wants to be caught holding this fool’s gold. When it really comes down to it, that’s the best indicator of people’s faith in a player. Not what they say, but what they do. Are they sending offers to try to acquire Puka? No. Are you seeing Puka traded for huge returns in your leagues? Probably not. If Nacua did get traded for haul in your league, did everyone call the manager stupid and say he got fleeced? Most likely.

Now I say all of this but I feel the need to qualify one very important point… I think Puka Nacua is a fantastic WR with all the tools to succeed in an offense. He runs nice routes, has great hands, and is clearly a good enough athlete to get open in the NFL. The problem is, he is behind Cooper Kupp in an offense that likes to overuse one guy, and with a QB who has no problem throwing to just his favorite target. And until Kupp shows a crack in the armor, it’s his spot to lose.