Thanksgiving Day Football

Thanksgiving 2021 is here and the NFL is gracing us with 3(!!!) games to enjoy while we stuff our fat American faces! Unfortunately, one of those games, the 12:30pm EST Turkey Day Kickoff game features the Bears taking on the Lions. But the other two, the Raiders at the Cowboys at 4:30 and the Bills at the Saints at 8:20 are much more intriguing affairs.

Bears @ Lions

Well let’s get right into it, shall we? Jared Goff is still questionable, but all signs are pointing towards him playing. If this is the case, as much as he has underwhelmed this year, TJ Hockenson must be in your lineups. If Goff doesn’t play, there’s a case to be made that Hock is not startable, but let’s hope we don’t have to cross that bridge. As for the other pass catchers, they all take a hit without Goff, but with JG in the lineup I think Josh Reynolds will look to get the ball early and often as he is reunited with his old QB from when they were both on the Rams.

The one constant on the DET side? D’Andre Swift. He’s a weekly fixture of your fantasy lineup, and he has been putting up big games all season long. Nothing should change in that aspect this week, however, the other member of their dynamic backielf, Jamal Williams, is back after a long absence. He played last week and turned in a largely lackluster performance, but I would expect him to build on that game and look to make more of an impact in this one.

On the Bears side, it looks like they are trotting out Andy Dalton as Fields is recovering from a rib injury sustained last week, and with the quick turnaround between games the coaching staff felt Andy Dalton gave them the best chance to win. With that being said, we should see more of what we saw in the beginning of year, and that’s a healthy dose of David Montgomery. He should be involved as often as his body can handle if the Bears want to have any shot in this one.

For pass catchers, I would focus solely on Darnell Mooney. ARob has been dinged up and missing practices this week, and overall this year he has been a major bust. We haven’t seen anything out of him to show he is turning a corner this week. Mooney, on the other hand, has been getting peppered with targets and should continue to play that same role. Marquise Goodwin popped big last week, but I don’t think we see that again on T-Day. Cole Kmet is another dart throw style player, but I wouldn’t be hitching my wagon to him any time soon.

Raiders @ Cowboys

Next up we have the Raiders heading into Dallas to take on the Cowboys, a much more interesting game no doubt.

This game should be a better one to watch than the previous one, even though Amari Cooper is out and CeeDee Lamb could still miss this game. Dak and the Cowboys need a bounce back game after getting embarrassed last week and the Raiders should be the team to do that against. The Raiders have not been able to figure out a game plan since Ruggs has left and so far, Desean Jackson has not been the answer.

On the Cowboys side, you are putting Dak out there as a QB1 in this game, and I also love Zeke here because of the success he has had on Thanksgiving Day, and he should be able to eat that turkey leg once again. Those two are the easy ones of course, but we cannot forget about Tony Pollard. Sure, he is one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football, but he still can be played alongside Zeke. The last 2 weeks, he has averaged right around 10 points per game, and if the Cowboys are down their top 2 WRs, Pollard could see an increase in the passing game as well. He is a sleeper pick for TSF this week, so toss him in your flex spot with confidence.

For the Cowboys pass catchers, it really all comes down to if CeeDee Lamb will play or not. Let’s say Lamb finds a way to play, then of course he is a lock, but with or without him, Gallup can be viewed as a WR3 this week. With no Cooper and Gallup another week back from his injury, he should be a focal point of the passing attack for Dak. If Lamb is out, then Gallup could be viewed in the WR2 range. Dalton Shultz should have a big week as well with all the other competent pass catchers likely out. We saw him have 8 targets last week, and although it wasn’t a great game, targets are what we look for at the TE position because it is opportunity that is hard to find given the landscape of TEs in the league.

Let’s get right into the Raiders on the other side of the ball. Carr is usually a boring, but safe, floor at the QB position, but ever since Ruggs was released, Carr has struggled in a way. He did have 19 points in Week 10, but failed to score double digit points last week. Dallas has done great against QBs, so Carr may be hard to trust as a starting QB in 1 QB leagues, so I am fine leaving him on the bench. Josh Jacobs, although he has not looked great fantasy wise, is still a startable RB2 in fantasy lineups. He does have a difficult matchup once again, but I feel the Raiders need to get back to the run game if they want to start winning games again. Drake I would not start this week since he has not topped 5 points in the last 2 weeks.

The pass catchers for the Raiders are tough because we have seen Bryan Edwards have a great game in Week 10, but in Weeks 9 and 11, he had zero points and not even 1 target last week. I still do not get the sporadic usage with Edwards, so I’m fine if you want to keep him on the bench, but Hunter Renfrow is always a safe start each week. He will never get that big 20 plus point game, but he has that safe 10-14 point floor most weeks and should see that once again. Of course we are all starting Darren Waller as a top 5 TE and it never matters the matchup, so lock him in for a big game.

Bills @ Saints

We then get into the Turkey Day night game with the Bills and the Saints. This would be a much better game if Kamara was playing, but he will be forced to miss his third game in a row. With that, let’s get into the game.

Let’s talk about the Saints first in this one and it looks like we will get another week of Trevor Siemian starting even though they just gave Taysom Hill another contract. Siemian has not been bad for fantasy and surprised all of us with a solid 26 point week last week. This is impressive seeing that they do not have the best pass catchers, but you have to give credit to him. That being said, I would not start him against the best defense against opposing QBs. With Kamara out, Ingram should see a butt load of attempts once again and is a strong RB2 against the team who just gave up a legendary game to Jonathan Taylor. A sleeper I do like this week is Tony Jones and if the Saints are down, you could see him get 5 plus targets in this one. Jones is a great DFS play if you want to save some money.

As for the pass catchers for the Saints, I am not sure I can trust any of them and I likely will not play Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, or Deonte Harris in this one, even though one should get a TD. I am simply not going to try and guess who that is going to be. For the TE spot, Juwan Johnson is the lead TE there now with Trautman out, but I still cannot trust him, even though he is a TSF dart throw this week.

For the Bills, you have to play Josh Allen even though he put up a stinker last week. It is a great matchup and he will look to have a massive bounce-back game in this one, so he is a safe top 5 QB play this week. As for the RB position, I will not be looking to start any RB for the Bills. We never know if it is Singletary, Moss, or even Breida and even if one does good, they are not putting up enough points to win you the week, so keep all of them out of your lineups.

We are all starting Stefon Diggs and we really do not need to talk too much about him as he is always a capable WR1 each week, but the other pass catchers have been tricky to judge. Manny Sanders started off hot, but since the bye week, he has yet to give you double digit fantasy points. It is a better matchup for him this week and I am still fine putting him out there if you are desperate. Cole Beasley has been bad as well the last few weeks, but he is a guy I am also fine with playing if you need someone, especially in full PPR. The Bills need to get their passing game back in a big way and they should force the ball more to Manny and Beasley in this game. Another TSF dart throw this week is Gabriel Davis.

To wrap up, free of charge, we have a few game day bets the Book Burners like on Thanksgiving. Mahoney has NO/BUF Over, DET/CHI Under, & DAL -7.5. Baldi has CHI -2.5, LV +7.5, & BUF -6. To round it out, Jeff’s picks are CHI -2.5, NO +6, & LV +7.5.

Well there you have it! We have three games once again on Turkey Day and this is always one of the best days for football of the season. What is better than drinking some beers and Bloody Mary’s, eating a bunch of food with family and watching football games all day? We hope you all have a great Thanksgiving and enjoy!