OL/DL Deep Dive: For the Nerds

I’ve been teasing this article on the podcasts for a while now, and IT IS FINALLY HERE!!!!

Something that often gets overlooked in fantasy football is the impact that the offensive and defensive lines have on the outcome of the games and the performance of your star players. For the longest time it wasn’t even something that ESPN or Yahoo! or various other Fantasy Football websites even bothered to inform you of, and then slowly but surely (I think Yahoo! was the first to do it) you started to see “@NE (23rd)” popping up next to your RB’s name and matchup tile.

And this was great! While it wasn’t always the most accurate, for those who knew what they were looking at this was a huge edge and a huge convenience to no longer have to pay for subscriptions to other sites or go hunting on Pro Football Reference just to find the data on your own. You had it right in front of you, and armed with that information, you were instantly able to make faster, easier, and more accurate start/sit decisions.

This article will take those numbers one step further. Those are just traditionally a team’s ranking against the run/pass, and they typically rely on yards allowed, while others used a point scored metric. However you dice it, they are far from all inclusive. Luckily, the folks over at Pro Football Focus have really kicked it into high gear and provide much more insight into pressure rates, Run vs. Pass efficacy, and far far more. This article will serve to synopsize the majority of that raw data into a much more palatable format that let’s you know where you should focus your fantasy start/sits, and potentially even some sleeper potential at the fantasy trade deadline.

So to kick it off, I wanted to highlight some of the best OL’s in the league, some might shock you, and some you are used to seeing here.

Notable OL’s who have been Shockingly Positive:

The New England Patriots – The Pats are, perhaps shockingly, boasting the lowest pressure rate in the league, and as a person who watches all of their games, where they are losing frequently tour the first time in a long time, I can say first hand it doesn’t always feel this way. But at 20%, they are considerably lower than anyone else in the league. After losing Dante Scarnecchia to retirement, very few saw this coming and many were predicting a collapse like the last time he left and Belichick had to beg him to come back. Well this Pats OL is stacked with vets, and I said from day one we wouldn’t see the drop off like we did before, but even with the vets on this roster the surprise of the season is 6th round draft pick, the true rookie, Michael Onwenu, who is the highest rated Tackle in the league and is playing a dominant role on the Pats OL.

Other teams who you might have expected to see on this list include the Tennessee Titans, Washington Football Team, Los Angeles Rams, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. These are all teams with fairly well established OL’s and who have been together for a while, but who are also teams who like to run the ball and do it at a high level, as well as throw the ball around the field to some talented WRs. The Redskins being the exception to this rule, but still with a talented OL who is yielding very little pressure, it’s easy to trace back the bulk of the problems to the QB play in Washington.

One final squad I wanted to highlight is the Arizona Cardinals, who are yielding only a 22% pressure rate, but also a mere 5% sack conversion rate. I think you can safely say this is thanks to Kyler Murray and his ability to get around the pocket and take off if needed, but also a big thank you to his WRs actually getting open and giving him an option to throw to. Arizona is also in second place in the NFL for yards before contact created on run plays. And if you read my trade deadline article, you know I was big on targeting Kenyan Drake. If he can be given 1.87 yards before contact on every play…. I like his odds to break off some big runs down the stretch.

Also wanted to give a quick shoutout to some rookies on teams who’s OL’s might not be the best in the world, or maybe they’re middle of the pack, but who have themselves played quite well during their first year in the league to this point:

Notable Rookie OL Who Have Performed Well:

1. Michael Onwenu, highest rated Tackle in the league by PFF

2. Tristan Wirfs, TB

3. Mekhi Becton, NYJ (was touted as a raw talent and is receiving a far above average PFF score on the lowly Jets)

4. Damien Lewis, SEA leads rookie Guards in PFF score

Now let’s move on to something a little less positive. The OL’s who have either underperformed or have continued to be a disappointment again in 2020.

Notable OL’s who have been Shockingly Negative:

PHI, SF, TB, CAR, DET, MIN, CHI, NYG (All above 28% pressure rate and 10%+ sack conversion rate)

Let’s get it out of the way right off the bat… Philly has been decimated by injury and I can’t expect anything more out of the than they have done. There is a simple formula in football that states there is a limit to how many Offensive Lineman you can lose in one year before the year just becomes a lost cause, and Philly hit that requirements for writing the year off while they were still in preseason. They have lost all of their projected Week 1 starters except for Jason Kelce, who finally got dinged up this past week and is now a big question mark, right as they finally returned Lane Johnson to action. So any of their woes are a bit excusable for the time being, but it doesn’t make the outcome any different…avoid Eagles RBs, QBs, and most WRs most weeks, because it’s tough to get much done when you have less than a 2.1 seconds to throw the football.

I also specifically wanted to shout out Chicago for being particularly awful. And we here as TSF like to rail on David Montgomery quite a bit, but he has been allowed a league worst 0.91 yards before contact this season by a Chicago OL who have not had that many injuries, they just seem to not want to block. You might think, well maybe it’s their scheme and they just aren’t a run blocking team, maybe they’re better at pass protection… you would be wrong. 29% pressure rate and 10% sack conversion rate allowed. They just don’t want to be out there blocking for anyone! So maybe we need to cut Monty some slack, but that doesn’t all of a sudden make him startable! The volume is still there for him, which will likely keep him in your lineup and hoping he finds the endzone, but TD dependent RB3’s are not what fantasy championships are built on.

The rest of the teams on this list shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to you, maybe with the exception of the Niners who have traditionally run the ball well and used play action off of it to remain an effective OL group. Well… when you have no RBs, no QB, and no WRs left due to devastating amounts of injuries across your roster, there is only so much you can do. So they get another pass from my crucifixion until they can return some skill position players to that team.

And since we shouted out the Rookies who have done well, let’s make fun of the ones who haven’t!

Notable Rookie OL who have Performed Poorly:

1. Austin Jackson, NYG…Hasn’t performed as well Becton or Wirfs who were drafted after him, is part of a bad OL but so are the aforementioned two.

2. Jedrick Wills, CLE… Same as Jackson

3. Josh Jones, ARI has barely seen the field, seems to be the right call since the Cardinal OL as a unit has been stellar and Jones has been below average in his limited snaps

4. Cesar Ruiz, NO…First round pick who has not lived up to that hype, is also on a talented run team and continues to post some of the lowest OL scores in the league by PFF’s measures

And now we will wrap up with the Defensive Line standouts, both good and bad. Again, often overlooked in Fantasy Football as something worth tracking, but if you know your QB or RB are about to face elite pass rushers or run stuffers, it can help you make the right call if you’re teetering on the fence about a particular start.

Notable DL’s who have been Shockingly Positive:

Cincinnati Bengals – Would you believe me if I told you they are leading the league with a 37% pressure rate??? I was as shocked as anyone when I read that, I double and triple checked it because I thought I was losing my mind. But they have quietly put the pressure on QBs this year, and that is likely something that is leading to their success now and bodes well for the future. For the longest time, the Bengals have struggled because their defense was deficient, if this is trending in the other direction, they could soon be a force in the AFC North.

Then you’ve got teams like WAS, MIN, LAC, BUF, SEA, HOU and ARI, who most people expect to see near the top each season. And the second surprise of this column in that the Giants are actually in the mix as a top 5 team in terms of pressure rate as well. For them, it really hasn’t been the defense this year, it’s been the offense’s inability to get anything done that has hurt them, so again while I’m surprised to see them near the top of the league, it does make sense.

One that did not make a ton of sense to me, until I looked closer, is that NE is a top 10 pressure team with a 31% pressure rate… and I started looking deeper, and come to find ou that yes, they may have a top 10 pressure rate, but are only converting 10% to sacks, which is 4th worst in the league. This is where the devil is in the details. Sure, pressures are great and can be a solid indicator that you are disturbing QBs and opposing offenses, but if you’re never getting home for the sack, you are not putting your team in a position to win. Instead of 2nd and 17 the offense is just at 2nd and 10 after a “pressure forced incompletion”. Whoop-dee-doo. Any coach will tell you 2nd and 10 is no worries, 2nd and 17 is a drive killer. So look for New England to hunt for a way to sort out this pressure debacle soon and convert more into sacks, because without that they will continue to struggle to win.

There’s not as much to say about the Rookie DL as there was about the OL, but wanted to highlight a few guys anyways who have performed at Very High levels on the season thus far:

1. Alex Highsmith, PIT

2. Chase Young, WAS

3. Yetur Gross-Matos, CAR

4. Josh Uche, NE (in limited snaps, 16)

5 &6. Doug Costin and Tershawn Wharton who were UDFAs

Then to wrap us all up, 4 teams getting virtually no pressure on the QB and as a result next to no sacks, we have these four bums:

Notable DL’s who have been Shockingly Negative:

PIT, TB, CHI, DEN

Oh wait… you say… TSF, aren’t these 4 pretty good defenses? Well yes, my learned student. You are getting it. Sometimes pressure isn’t the only thing that matters for a defense. If they can’t get pressure but they can cover at elite levels, you can mask the deficiencies of your pass rush. And what do these four teams have? Great secondaries and LBs. PIT and CHI are allowing near the top of the league in yards allowed before contact, but guess who they are running directly into? Some hard hitting and speedy LBs and Safeties who love to join the party and force a lot of turnovers. These teams are also perennially near the top of the league in takeaways. But nonetheless, yardage allowed before contact is a dangerous thing to allow to top tier NFL talents, and continuing to do so will inevitably become a problem, even for the most stout secondaries and the best linebackers.

In summation, I hope this has helped you understand a little more depth of the OL and DL matchups in the league and how they can impact what your skill position players are able to do in your fantasy lineups. Hopefully you walk away with a little more understanding and perhaps can use some of what’s here to identify some of your own more favorable trade targets ahead of what is the typical Fantasy Football Trade Deadline somewhere in the next couple weeks.

As always, feel free to submit any questions to @TopShelfFNTSY on Twitter and we would be more than happy to help.

Stay Fluid, Stay Loose.