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NFL Rookies – First 5 Weeks

The first 5 weeks of the 2020 NFL season have been pretty crazy. We have had fantasy superstars go down with injuries, players testing positive for COVID, games and schedules getting shuffled around, NFL coaches already fired, and Adam Gase still has a job in this league. All of these things and more would have been tough to predict in the off-season, but let’s not get away from what some of these talented rookies have done in their first 5 weeks.

If you play in a dynasty league, you know that this was the year to have those first round picks, because this was one of the greatest rookie draft classes in a long time. I have been in dynasty leagues for 5 plus seasons and even when guys like Jeudy, Swift, and Lamb were freshmen in college, everyone was panicking trying to make trades to try and land these future Pro Bowlers. Well, they are all now here, so let us see what they have given us so far.

Let’s start with the Quarterbacks. Now we all knew Joe Burrow was the day 1 starter for the Bengals after being the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, but we were unaware how good he was going to be off the bat. If you look at the chart below, you will see he is QB20 on the season. Not great when looking at it, but it is mainly due to the fact he scored only 5 points against a stout Baltimore defense. Before that game, he was QB11, so going forward I still feel confident in rolling him out there. He is doing exactly what you drafted him to do.

Next, you saw the Dolphins select Tua with their first pick in the draft, but he has yet to touch the field. We knew he was going to ride the pine to start, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick putting up QB1 numbers and dominating fantasy the last few weeks, Tua may need to wait even longer.

The surprising rookie QB is Justin Herbert. Tyrod was supposed to remain the starter almost all season, but with the Chargers medical staff who loves to play the game Operation, they punctured his lung before the Week 2 game, making Herbert the starting QB. He faced the Chiefs in Week 2 and brought them to OT while putting up over 20 fantasy points. Ever sense, he has been putting up close to QB1 numbers and has done so facing legends in Brady and Brees. With what we have seen from the young guy, you have to ask yourself…Herbert or Burrow going forward? I believe we still lean Burrow, but Herbert is inching closer each week and making a case to be an every week starter in fantasy.

Any other QB that was drafted is not fantasy relevant, so let’s get into the Running Backs! During the off-season and especially in dynasty, there were arguments about who to take first; CEH or Jonathan Taylor, with the other backs in D’Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, & Cam Akers mixed in somewhere later on. Well so far everyone was wrong. Because the top rookie RB, as of right now, is James Robinson.

The chart below shows the rookie backs in the order in which they were drafted. James Robinson was the 10th rookie and RB62 overall drafted. With Fournette being released, Armstead getting COVID twice (he is still on the COVID-19 list, should someone check on him?), and Ozigbo getting put on the IR, it opened up the door for Robinson. Now we thought he would be a good stash guy to see how the Jags use him. As of now, if you drafted James Robinson or picked him up after Week 1, good for you because it is hard to come by a bell cow back in an offense nowadays. So far, he has been the steal of the rookies and probably the entire fantasy world. Going forward, I think you can trust Robinson as a solid RB2 with the ceiling of a RB1 any given week.

Now let’s get to the rookies who all went well ahead of Robinson. CEH started off hot in Week 1, but has slowed down a bit and has not found the end zone since Week 1. He still remains RB13 on the season and as long as they do not bring anyone else in (looking at you Lev Bell), I think you can still trust CEH each week going forward with the volume alone in the rushing and passing game, as no one else is a threat to his job. When Marlon Mack went down for the season in Week 2, Jonathan Taylor‘s door opened quickly and he came out with a bang. Same as CEH; he slowed down a bit, but always still put up reasonable numbers as a starter in fantasy. Again, no real threat behind him and with the offensive line in Indy, Taylor could see a nice second half of the year there.

The other backs are tough to predict going forward. We have Akers, who saw plenty of carries in Week 1, but was injured for a few weeks after that; Dobbins who has shown flashes with the very minimal work he is getting; and Swift who looks good in the passing game (when he’s not dropping game winning TDs), but is not involved in the rushing attack. All three of these backs are talented, but they all find themselves in a crowded backfield and on teams that use at least 3 running backs each week.

As of now, it is hard to trust any of the three to start in fantasy, but all are capable of breaking out. Going forward, the safest play may be Cam Akers, mainly because it seems to be an even time share with him, Henderson, and Brown (when all are healthy) and Akers has been the one that looks the most explosive. It could be any week that Akers is the lead back. As for the other two, it is very close. Swift is involved in the passing game and has put up low flex numbers. Dobbins is averaging over 7 YPC, but for some reason the Ravens are still not giving him the ball. Again, both are very close and I just do not think you can start either one yet.

The rookies to make a note about are Antonio Gibson (RB24), Joshua Kelley (RB39), and Zach Moss (RB19). Moss had a strong Week 1, but ever since he has been derailed with a toe injury and still has not been active for a game as we head into Week 6. With the Ekeler injury, it opens a path for Kelley, who has looked good to start the season, but with Justin Jackson back healthy, it will be interesting to see how they use both guys. Give me Gibson! From Week 2 through 4, he had over 11 fantasy points (20 points in week 4). He had a sub-par Week 5 after putting up 7 points, but going forward, he may be the rookie RB I trust to play each week right behind Robinson, CEH, and Taylor, and he was barely drafted, so if you got him, good for you.

Onto the Wide Receivers! This WR rookie draft class was very deep, and in dynasty leagues, you could get a WR in the third round and the guy would still be a hit. The top 2 above everyone else were CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy. We have been following these two since they entered college and now we finally get to see what they can do. So far Lamb has gotten off to a very impressive start and is currently WR12 as a rookie! That Cowboys D is horrid and they will always need to be throwing the ball, so it is a perfect scenario for him. Dak is out for the season now after a brutal injury in Week 5, so it will be interesting to see how Andy Dalton does with him, but again, if they are going to be down, Lamb will always be on the field.

Jeudy on the other hand has looked solid as well, but just is not getting the looks or targets Lamb is getting. With Lock getting hurt early, he has had 3 other QBs trying to throw to him, so no connection has been made, and frankly, these other QBs are just putrid. Drew Lock should be back in Week 6, so it should be positive going forward for Jeudy, but I would still lean in favor of Lamb for the rest of the season.

However, it is not just the top two who are making splashes. Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, and Chase Claypool are also making names for themselves. The two biggest ones that have stood out are Jefferson and Claypool. Jefferson had his big game in Week 3 after going for 175 yards and a TD. His snap percentage keeps going up, and going forward he should be locked in as a flex play with his big play ability. Claypool also broke out, but in Week 5 after going for 110 yards and 4 total TDs (1 rushing). This may be one of the greatest games at WR in all of fantasy, let alone for a rookie. Now he is in a crowded offense, but after this game and also making a splash in Week 2 (88 yards and a TD), Big Ben may look to him even more going forward.

The others, Aiyuk, Shenault, and Higgins, have also looked great and should be flex plays going forward. Higgins has ultimately taken over the AJ Green role alongside Tyler Boyd in Cincy. Shenault has done everything and has lined up everywhere in the Jags offense and with DJ Chark going down again, Shenault could really start to make a name for himself. Aiyuk is also a guy who can line up anywhere and even run the ball, but with SF getting players like Deebo and Mostert back and even Coleman in a few weeks, there may not be enough targets to go around on a run heavy team, but what he can do when he gets the ball in his hands makes him intriguing.

A few tough breaks for other pass catchers we liked going into this season. Jalen Reagor was set to be the number 1 WR option in Philly and he most likely would have been, but was injured in Week 2 and placed on the IR. Michael Pittman was another guy who had the chance to break through in Indy after Parris Campbell went down, but was also hurt the following week and placed on IR. A guy who is very intriguing who just came back from an injury is Henry Ruggs. He came back in Week 5 and put up 118 yards and a TD, but that only came on 2 catches. He is a make or break play each week going forward, sort of like a Desean Jackson, but if he pops he can win you a matchup in any given week.

I have already gone on long enough about the rookies, so I will make it very quick on the Tight End front. It will be quick because there is no fantasy relevant rookie TE this season. With Tight Ends taking a few years in the NFL to become relevant and not much talent in the rookie class at that position this year, I would just stay away. Regardless, I’ve included the chart below for you to look at.

Well there you have it! These are the rookies and what they have done so far in the first 5 Weeks. We will come out with another article in Week 10 to see if they have moved up or have moved down. Comment below to let me know your thoughts on these rookies going forward and which ones you believe in most!

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