NFL Draft 2023: The Early Look

Now let’s get into the picks!

1. Houston Texans

Bryce Young

QB

Alabama

6′ (yeah we’ll see)

194

Bryce Young has size concerns. At barely 6 feet tall (and likely less), he has drawn comps to Kyler Murray, which, while a flashy comparison, hasn’t been a great a QB in actual execution for the Cards. But the Texans are desperate at QB after passing on QBs last year in the draft, so they would struggle to pass up a golden opportunity to land one here. You could make the case for a number of other QBs, but I think Young fits the bill for what the Texans want out of their QB spot.

2. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)

CJ Stroud

QB

Ohio State

6’3″

215

I could hear the case for the Seahawks going with an EDGE or other defensive player, or even OL here at this spot, but I think it’s more likely they take a high end QB talent at this 2nd pick in the draft. While Geno has played very well this year, he’s still a 32 year old journeyman QB, and one who this rebuilding Seattle team would likely not want to tie their future hopes to. Stroud may take some time to be truly NFL ready though, so adding him here and playing Geno one more season isn’t out of the question either.

3. Chicago Bears

Will Anderson

Edge

Alabama

6’4″

245

The Bears let Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith leave this season, and while they have holes at a lot of spots on both sides of the ball (OL, WR, DL, LB, DB), I think they’ll look to add a monster EDGE who can singlehandedly generate a pass rush for their D. That’s, of course, assuming they make this pick. With the need for QBs around the league, there is a very good chance another team tries to trade up to this spot and the Bears move down for additional picks.

4. Detroit Lions (via LAR)

Will Levis

QB

Kentucky

6’3″

232

No matter how well Goff has played this year, or how solid the Lions offense has begun to look, they have to go QB here and make a move for the future. Levis is one of the most QB ready prospects, and has all the tools to succeed at the NFL level. He has experience playing under NFL caliber offensive coordinators the last two years, and would instantly find himself in a great situation surrounded by talented weapons in Detroit. Additionally, the Lions have one shot at an out from Goff’s contract, and that’s this offseason. They can take a 10M dead cap hit and avoid the 30 & 31 million they’d owe him each of the next two years. Financially and for the good of the franchise long term, I think Detroit needs to make this move now.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)

Jalen Carter

DL

Georgia

6’3″

310

What a world for Philly. A top five team in the league this year no matter how you slice it, and now they have a bid at a top 5 pick in the draft because New Orleans stinks out loud. So who do they take? They still need some help at DB, but there aren’t any ultra elite prospects in this draft who I would reach for this soon. I think it’s more likely that they stick to their bread and butter (or even trade out of this pick), and draft another dominant DL. Jalen Carter is just that. Brandon Graham won’t be around forever, Fletcher Cox already tried to retire last year, and Jordan Davis was a force before his injury, so it would be unreal to pair the two former college teammates together at the NFL level.

6. Arizona Cardinals

Peter Skoronski

OL

Northwestern

6’4″

315

The Cards need help on OL. No question about it. Skoronski has the ability to play multiple positions on the line, so Arizona might be wise to select someone they’ll be able to move around freely on the line. With the goal of keeping Kyler protected and Conner effective on the ground, the selection of an offensive lineman makes too much sense.

7. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson

QB

Florida

6’4″

232

You’re going to have to bear with me on this one, and I might be getting ahead of myself, being that most people have Richardson pegged as a Day 2 selection… but with the recent failed QB experiments in Indy I could really see them taking a chance on a guy who has all the tools to be great, just needs to be coached into a little more consistency. Odds are that Indy moves up for one of the top 3 QBs in this draft and tries to solidify a position that’s been a revolving door of over the hill veterans for years now.

8. Las Vegas Raiders

Kelee Ringo

CB

Georgia

6’2″

210

The Raiders need a lot of help, wouldn’t be surprised to see them go any number of directions on this pick, but I think shoring up their secondary is a must. The Carr-Adams connection is working at an elite level, and they can continue to ride this and re-sign Josh Jacobs to keep the offense stable, but the defense needs help so they don’t need to win shootouts every single week. I think picking a big DB like Kelee Ringo who checks a ton of boxes in the physical attributes columns is a tailor-made Raiders pick.

9. Carolina Panthers

Myles Murphy

DL

Clemson

6’5″

275

Now my guess would be that Carolina uses this pick to move up and secure one of the top 3 QBs in the draft. I think it would be way too risky to sit and wait here, as I already have Richardson off the baord on a reach by Indy and Hendon Hooker should not be considered a Day 1 pick. But if they stay here in the 9 hole, I think the Panthers would opt for DL and try to shore up one of their weaknesses on defense. Murphy has good size and athleticism for the position and could make an immediate impact as a starter opposite Brian Burns.

10. Atlanta Falcons

Quentin Johnson

WR

TCU

6’4″

215

Now most people don’t have Atlanta going WR… and we may change this as the combine comes, but here at TSF we like to make some educated guesses, and here’s mine. Mariota has not been the solution in ATL, and Desmond Ridder is set to get his first start in Week 15. If he plays at all like he did in college, the Falcons would be wise to surround him with talented pass catchers. The OL isn’t great, nor is the defense, but where you see a glaring lack of talent is at the WR position after Drake London, who has somehow managed to look decent when the QB can actually get the ball to him. I’d look for the Falcs to continue to try to support their potential QB of the future by drafting one more weapon on offense before they use some later picks to bolster their weak spots on defense.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars

Byran Bresee

DL/DT

Clemson

6’5″

305

Probably one of the harder picks to evaluate in this draft, given the needs the team still has and the amount they’ll likely be throwing around in free agency again, this is sort of a moving target for the time being. However, I could certainly see them adding more depth to the DL (or OL to help out Etienne and keep Lawrence upright, but I lean towards DL for now), and if that’s the case Bresee fits the bill. He, Walker, and Allen could be a force up front and get this defense back on track.

12. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Paris Johnson Jr.

OT

Ohio State

6’6″

315

The Texans may have been targeting Skoronski, but they’ll be just as happy if they can land Paris Johnson. He doesn’t have as much “play any spot on the line” versatility, but he can play both tackle spots if asked and he has the size to be a true to form elite NFL Tackle. He’s shockingly mobile for a guy his size, which is probably why he performs well in both pass protection and when run blocking. If they take a QB with their #1 pick, it would be wise to instantly get him some protection, while also aiding their 2022 breakout RB Dameon Pierce next season.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers

Cam Smith

CB

South Carolina

6’0″

185

Cam Smith was the hottest CB prospect coming into the 2022 season, and for some reason people have cooled on him. Well just because his INT numbers aren’t blowing you away, don’t be fooled. You can’t pick the ball off if they don’t throw it to your side of the field. He’s still a lcokdown corner and I think NFL teams will see this, and the Steelers know they need help in the secondary if they’re going to get back to the brand of football they’re known for.

14. Green Bay Packers

Trenton Simpson

LB

Clemson

6’3″

225

We look at the GB depth chart every year and we mock it out like they’re going to take a WR as soon as possible, and it never happens. It looks like they hit on Christian Watson in the second round last year, and they are going to stay true to this historical trend and tell Rodgers to make it work with who he’s given. Instead, they go for the Swiss Army Knife of LBs in this draft, Clemson’s Trenton Simpson. He’s got the prototypical MLB size and has drawn comparisons to San Fran’s Fred Warner. If that’s anywhere near accurate, the Packers would love to have him there to replace the aging, oft-injured, and cap-eating De’Vondre Campbell (or Preston Smith… take your pick).

15. Detroit Lions

Devon Witherspoon

CB

Illinois

6’0″

180

The Lions were this year’s NFL darlings, starting as the lovable losers on HBO’s Hard Knocks and then somehow defying the odds to actually run one of the league’s better offenses. I think they’ll look to continue building a defense that, while decent on paper, still has plenty of room for improvement. Some people are saying they’ll take Mayer to replace Hockenson, and while Campbell is a TE minded coach, I disagree and think he knows the defense is more of a concern. So here they take Devon Witherspoon, a lockdown corner, who, while not the most athletic guy in the room, has consistently shut down opposing WRs and earned his selection in the first round. He is also the type of DB who lays the hammer on people, and I think he’s the type of guy that will interview well with Coach Campbell and shoot up his draft board. Additionally, they’ve still got Okudah, who has had his struggles, but as a tandem I think these two could be special.

16. Los Angeles Chargers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR

Ohio State

6’0″

198

Njigba holds the record for receiving yards (347) in the Rose Bowl, after he burst onto the scene last year. This year, he’s opting out of his Bowl Game to stay healthy for the draft… fair enough. I could see the Chargers taking him, as they’re projected to be over the cap already and may face some issues retaining both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. If they want the heir apparent, it very well could be JSN. However, he’s struggled to stay on the field this year, which may drop him down even further on people’s draft boards. But let’s not forget, he comes from a WR room that formerly contained Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave… two guys who have looked great in the NFL thus far.

17. Seattle Seahawks

Christian Gonzalez

CB

Oregon

6’2″

201

I already have them taking their much needed QB, and while I could see them doing a number of other things, like I said earlier about them taking an EDGE, which is still on the table in a guy like Tyree Wilson, I think instead they opt to go for DB and take Christian Gonzalez to pair alongside breakout rookie Tariq Woolen. The Seahawks built their mini-dynasty behind the Legion of Boom and I think Woolen and Gonzalez could be the perfect candidates to start it up again.

18. New York Jets

Broderick Jones

OT

Georgia

6’4″

315

It’s a Jets team coached by Robert Saleh… what do you think they’re going to do? They found out this year that Breece Hall is everything they ever hoped he’d be, and they also found out that Zonovan Knight is superb as well. They are short a QB who could really come in and take this team to the next level, but Mike White is a fine fill in, or maybe they go back to the Zach Wilson project again in 2023. Either way, this team needs to keep its QB upright and its RBs running through big holes, and Broderick Jones knows how to do just that after a nice collegiate career at Georgia. This fit makes too much sense, so it probably won’t happen.

—WILD CARD ROUND LOSERS—

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bijan Robinson

RB

Texas

6’0″

215

What do you get the guy who has everything? A shiny new RB toy! Look, I’m a Rachaad White guy, no doubt about it. And Fournette has looked past his prime this season (as has the whole offense). But when you get a chance to nab this year’s Breece Hall, or last year’s JT, or… well you get the point… you do it. At pick 19 the risk is fairly low, you get White a much needed running mate who can do it all, and you let Fournette and his big cap hit leave. Now if Brady sticks around for another season, great. If not, you lean on the run and play a game manager at QB who goes out and tries not to lose you games. But this is the right pick at this spot.

20. Tennessee Titans

Tyree Wilson

EDGE

Texas Tech

6’6″

275

There’s always one stud who slides down boards for seemingly no reason, and this year it’s Tyree Wilson. The beneficiaries? The Titans. Their defense has struggled against the pass this year, so naturally you’d assume it’s a DB issue and they should draft starting there, but when you dig deeper you notice a glaring inability to consistently pressure opposing QBs. A guy like Wilson helps you address that from the day he shows up to minicamp. He’s got a full bag of tools at his disposal and he’s got the size and speed to go with it.

21. New England Patriots

Noah Sewell

LB

Oregon

6’3″

251

Sewell is a throwback style LB that Bill Belichick will love. And as such, he will reach on him in this draft, and take a consensus Day 2 guy in the first round. But it could be worse! Sewell’s highlight reel is a must watch. His ability to play downhill, blow up blocks, and make tackles behind the LOS is nothing short of elite. He needs some work when it comes to coverage, but NE’s got guys that can help with that, Jerod Mayo being the main one who springs to mind.

22. Washington Commanders

Joey Porter Jr.

CB

Penn State

6’2″

191

Not only is Porter a big CB at 6’2″… he’s a noticeably “long” 6-foot-2. One look at the guy and you wonder why he didn’t play basketball, other than his elite strength and NFL bloodline… of course. He’s a home run pick for the Commanders, who have good defensive players at almost every other position, just need to work on defending the outside WRs on opposing teams a bit better. But Porter is the answer to all of this, I envision him being an impact rookie DB who will factor into a lot PBUs in 2023.

23. New York Giants

Jordan Addison

WR

USC

6’0″

175

A bit on the skinny side at 175, Addison will surely draw some less than stellar WR comps. However, he’s got the tools to succeed at this level, and Lord knows the Giants need help at receiver. Wan’Dale Robinson looked good for all of the 5 minutes he was on the field, Sterling Shepard can’t stay healthy any season, Kenny Golladay might as well join a track team, because that’s all he’s doing out there, just running and getting some exercise. So the G-Men would be wise to address this deficit and draft WR talent, and Addison has all the talent in the world. He could be what it takes to get Danny Jones over the hump.

24. Miami Dolphins

Forfeited pick for tampering and other malfeasance.

—DIVISIONAL ROUND LOSERS—

25. Denver Broncos (via SF)

BJ Ojulari

EDGE

LSU

6’3″

245

They traded away Bradley Chubb and now instantly draft his replacement. There isn’t much else to say on this one. Too late to get a QB that will be any better than Russ, you’re paying Russ too much to sit him or cut him anyways, their RB room is fine assuming Javonte Williams comes back, and their WRs are elite, they just can’t get the ball thrown to them. So focus on what has been working, your elite defense. Bolster that as much as you can, so you can continue to win games 13-10 and play 12 prime time games a year. But in all seriousness, Ojulari is a monster and plays even bigger than his 6’3″ 245lb frame might suggest, which is saying something. He should be able to translate his game well to the NFL level and I’m excited at the prospect of him joining an already high caliber defense.

26. Baltimore Ravens

Rashee Rice

WR

SMU

6’3″

203

This HAS to be a WR right??? Bateman has looked fine, but can’t stay on the field. Aside from that, you’re expecting Desean Jackson at age 76 to carry your WR room? Or Demarcus “I’ve never posted back to back good games” Robinson? At some point BAL needs to realize they don’t need 15 injured RBs plus Lamar all on the same roster, they need WRs who can stay healthy, play big snaps, and contribute. Rashee Rice has the size and stature that indicates he should be able to absorb the wear and tear of an NFL season and stay on the field. He’s like a young Anquan Boldin, and we all remember what a force he was as a Raven and Cardinal in the league. If Rice could have half of that man’s career the Ravens would count themselves lucky. And not for nothing, Lamar re-signing to stay in Baltimore might hinge largely on who they select with this pick.

27. Cincinnati Bengals

Emmanuel Forbes

CB

Miss. State

6’0″

180

The Bengals are a team without any monstrously glaring holes, even though they have been snake-bitten when it comes to injuries this year at the WR position. But they’re not drafting another wideout this early. Mark my words on that. Instead, they go for Forbes, a guy who just narrowly missed out on the Jim Thorpe Award (given to the best CB in the country). He had 6 picks and brought 3 of those all the way back for TDs, so that should give you an idea of his athletic ability. The Bengals are sort of spoiled with options here, but their pass defense still needs some help, and adding a guy like Forbes to the CB room is a smart play.

28. Dallas Cowboys

Clark Phillips III

CB

Utah

5’10”

184

As good as the Cowboys are on offense, they let teams hang around with them all too often. Insert Clark Phillips. He’s a bit small for CB nowadays (as most teams seem to look for the 6 footers and up) but he doesn’t let that slow him down at all, and he plays every bit as big as anyone else on the DB draft board. He lays his 184lb frame on the line every week with reckless abandon and makes plays all over the field, both in coverage and in run support. The Cowboys could use a guy like him opposite the risk-taking Diggs on the other side. Going for a little yin and yang thing here.

—CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP LOSERS—

29. Kansas City Chiefs

Dawand Jones

OT

Ohio State

6’8″

360

The Chiefs can kind of do what they want here, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them go for a guy like Jahmyr Gibbs and take another stab at finding an elite RB, or even taking a WR since we’ve seen Kelce sort of have to work overtime with the lack of a consistent secondary receiver option. However, I think they do what most smart teams do when they don’t have a glaring need, and that’s draft OL. Dawand Jones could be the blind-side protecting specialist Mahomes needs, considering Orlando Brown has struggled to stay healthy over the course of his career, or he could shift to RT and supplant Andrew Wylie and just be an absolute mauler that might assist in getting the run game going. Either way, he’s a bit of a raw prospect, but a guy who has the upside to be great.

30. Minnesota Vikings

Eli Ricks

CB

Alabama

6’2″

196

Ricks hasn’t blown anyone’s doors off this year, dealing with a back injury coming into the season and then a head injury about half way through. However, the Vikings are a team with only 3 CBs under contract for 2023, and all of them are young. They need to figure out what their plan is ASAP, because despite being 10-3 on the season thus far, they are the only 10-3 team in history to have a negative point differential. I know Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook are elite, but at some point they can’t be asked to score 40 points every week just to keep Minnesota in the game. Ricks has learned under Saban’s Alabama defense for long enough to bring an impact player’s mentality to this CB room, and I like his odds of carving out a starting role if he lands in MIN.

—SUPER BOWL TEAMS—

31. Buffalo Bills

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB

Alabama

5’11”

200

The rich get richer. Other teams are forced to fill immediate needs and Jahmyr Gibbs falls right into the laps of Buffalo, a team who has been searching for an elite RB for years. Singletary has been serviceable, but has never taken that next step towards elite. James Cook has shown flashes as a rookie, but for every good game, he’s got 3 bad ones. Moss was shipped out of town and Nyheim Hines hasn’t done much since the two were swapped in a trade. Gibbs has elite skills with the ball in his hands, and has breakaway speed that can be lethal, as well as the ability to break tackles when needed. He comes from Alabama, who has produced a long line of NFL ready RBs, and I think this will be more of the same. Buffalo will continue to tighten their grip on the AFC East with Gibbs and Cook as a 1-2 punch out of their backfield.

32. Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Branch

S

Alabama

6’0″

193

As appears to be a yearly tradition in Philly, they’ve suffered a number of injuries to their defensive backs. As such, they’ve been shown a weakness on their otherwise very stacked squad. Branch could be a day one starter at safety for the Eagles, or he could learn as a backup/special teamer for a while, that’s just the benefit of the Eagles having done well in constructing their current roster. But if he’s out there, I would expect him to make an impact, as a leader of Bama’s pro-ready defensive scheme, he should be able to make the transition easier than most.