Week 14 – Start and Sits
November 27, 2024
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The countdown to the 2023 NFL Draft on April 27th, 2023 at 8pm EST, live from Kansas City continues!
And with that, TopShelf Fantasy is here to bring you yet another install of our mock draft series, this one coming on the heels of the NFL Combine that took place over the last week or so, and this mock, thankfully, includes the picks in their proper spots. As fun as the December mock was, it’s much more interesting to do a mock in the proper order! And while we attempted to avoid making trades in this mock draft, despite the league-wide suspicions that Chicago will move out of the 1.01 spot and throw everything out of whack, each pick and the corresponding write up will mention if that particular pick is on the block or one that may change. We’ve still got plenty of time for things to change, signings to happen, and free agency is still likely to shift some draft focuses, but take a look at the following Mock Draft and let us know what you think on Twitter, Instagram, or any other social media @TopShelfFNTSY.
One important note here, comments and write ups for each pick include my current thoughts on each selection, followed by the comments I made on the player back in December. Now remember, some of the teams may have changed so the past comments may apply to different teams than the current pick, but a lot of the reasoning is still rock solid!
Now let’s get into the picks!
1. Chicago Bears
| Will Anderson Jr. | EDGE | Alabama | 6’3.5″ | 253lbs |
Mar 8th: The need for top a tier QB at this 1.01 pick is still very high, and with teams knowing that HOU is almost sure to pick a QB at 1.02, the Bears could demand a King’s Ransom for the first overall selection from a team who wants to pick THEIR guy. But assuming the Bears actually make this pick, nothing has changed for me from my December projections. I think they take Will Anderson Jr. out of Alabama, whose unique blend of size and speed would make an immediate impact on a pass rush that ranked second to last in the NFL last season. Add in the recent Jalen Carter “character issues” and I think Anderson makes a lot of sense coming off the board and heading to Chicago. It also doesn’t hurt that if the Bears trade back they would still have a good shot at landing Anderson, so my mock can stay intact by selecting him here.
Dec 14th: The Bears let Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith leave this season, and while they have holes at a lot of spots on both sides of the ball (OL, WR, DL, LB, DB), I think they’ll look to add a monster EDGE who can singlehandedly generate a pass rush for their D. That’s, of course, assuming they make this pick. With the need for QBs around the league, there is a very good chance another team tries to trade up to this spot and the Bears move down for additional picks.
2. Houston Texans
| Bryce Young | QB | Alabama | 5’10.5″ | 204lbs |
Mar 8th: As noted draft genius Cory Dows said all the way back in December, Bryce Young is undersized. Considerably. He’s officially 5’10.5″ and just over 200lbs. But he still plays at a high level, and has shown that he can get the job done in big spots. I think Houston takes him as the first QB off the board if Chicago decides to use their pick and select a non-QB at 1.01. If not, I believe Houston would be happy to take Stroud, Levis, or even Richardson (surprisingly) at this spot. We know it’s a QB, it’s just a matter of who, and that will be determined by what Chicago decides to do on draft day.
Dec 14th: Bryce Young has size concerns. At barely 6 feet tall (and likely less), he has drawn comps to Kyler Murray, which, while a flashy comparison, hasn’t been a great QB in practice for the Cards. But the Texans are desperate at QB after passing on the position last year in the draft, so they would struggle to pass up a golden opportunity to land one here. You could make the case for a number of other QBs, but I think Young fits the bill for what the Texans want out of their QB spot.
3. Arizona Cardinals
| Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia | 6’3″ | 314lbs |
Mar 8th: Arizona would be wise to add to their depleted defensive line, who has seen Chandler Jones leave and then JJ Watt retire in back to back seasons. Jalen Carter has every shot in the world to be a generational talent on the DL and ARI is in desperate need of some help on that side of the ball. They ranked dead last in QB pressures last year, and they are staring down the barrel of a repeat unless they address this ASAP. He is also an elite run stuffer, so he’ll be able to help in more ways than one. Carter is dealing with the misdemeanor charges related to the accident that killed a former staff member and Georgia teammate, but he seems to be taking the appropriate responsibility and indications are this should not affect his availability to NFL teams come regular season, however it could tank his draft stock. I think the Cards would be wise to ignore the off field situation and select the player for who we know he can be on the field. Originally, I had Carter going to Philly since Philly had the New Orleans pick that was mocked for this slot, so Arizona lucks out and nabs a superstar as the Saints started to win games toward the end of the year.
Dec 14th: What a world for Philly. A top five team in the league this year no matter how you slice it, and now they have a bid at a top 5 pick in the draft because New Orleans stinks out loud. So who do they take? They still need some help at DB, but there aren’t any ultra elite prospects in this draft who I would reach for this soon. I think it’s more likely that they stick to their bread and butter (or even trade out of this pick), and draft another dominant DL. Jalen Carter is just that. Brandon Graham won’t be around forever, Fletcher Cox already tried to retire last year, and Jordan Davis was a force before his injury, so it would be unreal to pair the two former college teammates together at the NFL level.
4. Indianapolis Colts
| Will Levis | QB | Kentucky | 6’4″ | 229lbs |
Mar 8th: Originally this pick was Detroit’s via the Rams… but oh boy have things changed. Indy slides into the 4 spot and finally has the chance to draft a QB of the future, rather than riding the carousel of aging veteran bums for another season. Nabbing a QB with the upside that Levis has is huge for them, not only from a day 1 starter and talent perspective, but also from the financial angle. Indy owes Matt Ryan 19.2M in salary for 2023, and he is an 18M dead cap hit if cut. While 4th overall picks are still generously compensated, it should give Levis a salary somewhere in the 8-9M/yr range (depending on the increase from last year due to the cap increase). While that’s a lot to sink into the QB position, it’s not outside the realm of normality, other than your starter (Levis) making considerably less than your backup (Ryan). I also initially had Indy mocked to take Anthony Richardson at pick 7, but I think Levis at 4 just makes more sense for how they run their offense. And not for nothing, Levis had a hell of a showing at the combine, putting his incredible arm strength and improved accuracy on display during the throwing drills portion of events.
Dec 14th: No matter how well Goff has played this year, or how solid the Lions offense has begun to look, they have to go QB here and make a move for the future. Levis is one of the most QB ready prospects, and has all the tools to succeed at the NFL level. He has experience playing under NFL caliber offensive coordinators the last two years, and would instantly find himself in a great situation surrounded by talented weapons in Detroit. Additionally, the Lions have one shot at an out from Goff’s contract, and that’s this offseason. They can take a 10M dead cap hit and avoid the 30 & 31 million they’d owe him each of the next two years. Financially and for the good of the franchise long term, I think Detroit needs to make this move now.
5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)
| Tyree Wilson | EDGE | Texas Tech | 6’6″ | 271lbs |
Mar 8th: Tyree Wilson was a guy who wasn’t getting much hype a couple months ago, and as such I had him sliding to the Titans a bit further down the board. Instead, as of late, he’s been gaining some traction and people are seeing him for the elite talent he is. Seattle would benefit greatly from an edge rusher who can bring some pressure in one on one matchups, and he should make an impact as a day one player. And with the news that Geno Smith and Seattle are going to run it back together with the sides just signing a new deal, I think bolstering the defense while keeping the offense unchanged is the most likely route they take with the 5th overall pick.
Dec 14th: There’s always one stud who slides down boards for seemingly no reason, and this year it’s Tyree Wilson. The beneficiaries? The Titans. Their defense has struggled against the pass this year, so naturally you’d assume it is a DB issue and they should draft starting there, but when you dig deeper you notice a glaring inability to consistently pressure opposing QBs. A guy like Wilson helps you address that from the day he shows up to minicamp. He’s got a full bag of tools at his disposal and he’s got the size and speed to go with it.
6. Detroit Lions (via LAR)
| Paris Johnson Jr. | OT | Ohio State | 6’6″ | 313lbs |
Mar 8th: Paris Johnson Jr. can play both tackle spots, and Detroit has Sewell at the other one presently, so this would be a nice way to bookend a line that is going to be asked to do a lot of work in 2023. The Lions have built themselves as a power run team who can work in some play action and impose their will on an opponent, much to the delight of their coach Dan Campbell. They need a little more protection for their QB, they need a long term solution at QB (or for Goff to restructure), but in this area of later-but-still-early first round picks, the safe bet is to go OT and put money in the bank on a guy who can play big snaps from the day he shows up to camp.
Dec 14th: The Texans may have been targeting Skoronski, but they’ll be just as happy if they can land Paris Johnson. He doesn’t have as much “play any spot on the line” versatility, but he can play both tackle spots if asked and he has the size to be a true-to-form elite NFL Tackle. He’s shockingly mobile for a guy his size, which is probably why he performs well in both pass protection and when run blocking. If they take a QB with their #1 pick, it would be wise to instantly get him some protection, while also aiding their 2022 breakout RB Dameon Pierce next season.
7. Las Vegas Raiders
| CJ Stroud | QB | Ohio State | 6’3″ | 214lbs |
Mar 8th: Seattle decides to stick with Geno, takes a defender, and as such CJ Stroud slips down a couple more picks into a GREAT landing spot with Las Vegas. A cheaper QB option (pick 7 should be in the ballpark of 7M per year) than the other guys they may target in FA should allow the Raiders to bring back Josh Jacobs comfortably (they tagged him, but I’m sure both sides would like a long term deal before he ends up sitting out and refusing to play under the tag) and keep the offense largely intact. McDaniels will also get to pick “his guy” and start to build an offense with the pieces he has carefully selected and coached from the get-go. Stroud would be lucky to land in an offense with weapons like Las Vegas, so I think this has the potential to be a very nice fit.
Dec 14th: I could hear the case for the Seahawks going with an EDGE or other defensive player, or even OL here at this spot, but I think it’s more likely they take a high end QB talent at this 3rd pick in the draft. While Geno has played very well this year, he’s still a 32 year old journeyman QB who the young Seattle team would likely not want to tie their future hopes to. Stroud may take some time to be truly NFL ready though, so adding him here and playing Geno one more season isn’t out of the question either.
8. Atlanta Falcons
| Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida | 6’4″ | 244lbs |
Mar 8th: With all the other QBs now off the board, Atlanta takes their chance to strike and nabs the very talented, yet very unpolished, Anthony Richardson. Atlanta has said they’re committed to Desmond Ridder, but what else are you supposed to say to your fanbase when you cut the starter (Mariota) and have no other QBs on the roster? I think they see their chance to sign a more mobile, more durable, and more NFL ready player in Richardson and they take it. Ridder was supposed to be a project QB from day 1, so maybe it becomes a camp battle and the two push each other to new heights… or maybe one crumbles under the pressure. Either way, you create a scenario where you have a young and hungry QB with options at WR and TE and it makes for an exciting offense. However, this all goes out the window if the Lamar Jackson to the Falcons rumors end up holding any water (though they recently said they are not pursuing him), so keep your eyes and ears trained on that until we have something more definitive. As for Richardson himself, he dominated the combine, in ways most quarterbacks could only dream of doing. Him flying up draft boards is more than well deserved.
Dec 14th: You’re going to have to bear with me on this one, and I might be getting ahead of myself, being that most people have Richardson pegged as a Day 2 selection… but with the recent failed QB experiments in Indy I could really see they taking a chance on a guy who has all the tools to be great, just needs to be coached into a little more consistency. Odds are that Indy moves up for one of the top 3 QBs in this draft and tries to solidify a position that’s been a revolving door for years now.
9. Carolina Panthers
| Peter Skoronski | OL | Northwestern | 6’4″ | 313lbs |
Mar 8th: Carolina nailed the Ikem Ekwonu pick last year and they will look to repeat that success again here. Skoronski is a stud OL who can play essentially all 5 spots on the line. Carolina has already expressed an interest in retaining RB D’Onta Foreman, and still have Chuba Hubbard under contract, so if their plan is to hammer the ball down people’s throats, this move would make sense. Now there’s also the option for Carolina to try to move up and secure one of the QB prospects mentioned above, but for now, I think we see them build their OL and then consider making a move for a veteran QB… although Derek Carr signing with New Orleans makes that a bit trickier. Jimmy G is becoming more and more of an attractive option for a team like Carolina.
Dec 14th: The Cards need help on OL. No question about it. Skoronski has the ability to play multiple positions on OL, so Arizona might be wise to select someone they’ll be able to move around freely on the line. With the goal of keeping Kyler protected and Conner effective on the ground, the selection of an offensive lineman makes too much sense.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)
| Myles Murphy | DL | Clemson | 6’5″ | 258lbs |
Mar 8th: Back in December this pick was mocked to head to Carolina, but with them bumping up and the Saints moving down, and having traded this pick to the Eagles, I think this is a spot for the rich to get richer. Myles Murphy is a freak athlete off the end of the DL and can be an impact player on a defense who has always taken pride in having and elite line and a top tier front 7. Add him to a group that includes (for now) Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis, Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett, and Josh Sweat… and this defense remains one of the most elite groups in the league.
Dec 14th: Now my guess would be that Carolina uses this pick to move up and secure one of the top 3 QBs in the draft. I think it would be way too risky to sit and wait here, as I already have Richardson off the baord on a reach by Indy and Hendon Hooker should not be considered a Day 1 pick. But if they stay here in the 9 hole, I think the Panthers would opt for DL and try to shore up one of their weaknesses on defense. Murphy has good size and athleticism for the position and could make an immediate impact as a starter opposite Brian Burns.
11. Tennessee Titans
| Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois | 5’11.5″ | 181lbs |
Mar 8th: This pick is now in the hands of the Titans, and boy do they have some holes to fill. You name it and they need help there. I think the smart move here is to go for a position you know you need, CB, and get a top talent to start to secure the back end of your defense, and then work from there. Their offense is more than just a piece or two away, and they’re actively shopping Derrick Henry, so until they sort out that side of the ball, I think you need to build up the defense as best you can and hope to win games by shutting down other teams first.
Dec 14th: The Lions were this years NFL darlings, starting as the lovable losers on HBO’s Hard Knocks and then somehow defying the odds to actually run one of the league’s better offenses. I think they’ll look to continue building a defense that, while decent on paper, still has plenty of room for improvement. Some people are saying they’ll take Mayer to replace Hockenson, and while Campbell is a TE minded coach, I disagree and think he knows the defense is more of a concern. So here they take Devon Witherspoon, a lockdown corner, who, while not the most athletic guy in the room, has consistently shut down opposing WRs and earned his selection in the first round. He is also the type of DB who lays the hammer on people, and I think he’s the type of guy that will interview well with Coach Campbell and find his way home. Additionally, they’ve still got Okudah, who has had his struggles, but as a tandem I think these two could be special.
12. Houston Texans (via CLE)
| Quentin Johnston | WR | TCU | 6’3″ | 208lbs |
Mar 8th: Cleveland traded this pick to Houston, and now Houston gets to add to their great first round by selecting a weapon for their new QB taken a few picks earlier. If they take Quentin Johnston, they’re getting a WR with size and speed that can play at the NFL level from the day he shows up to camp. Him, Nico Collins, and John Metchie would be a fantastic trio of WRs in Houston for (in this mock) Bryce Young to work with and attempt to solidify himself as the long term solution at QB for the Texans. This pick almost makes too much sense, so look for Houston to probably do something drastically different, just to spite me.
Dec 14th: Now most people don’t have Atlanta going WR… and we may change this as the combine comes, but here at TSF we like to make some educated guesses, and here’s mine. Mariota has not been the solution in ATL, and Desmond Ridder is set to get his first start in Week 15. If he plays at all like he did in college, the Falcons would be wise to surround him with talented pass catchers. The OL isn’t great, nor is the defense, but where you see a glaring lack of talent is at the WR position after Drake London, who has somehow managed to look decent when the QB can actually get the ball to him. I’d look for the Falcs to continue to try to support their potential QB of the future by drafting one more weapon on offense before they use some later picks to bolster their weak spots on defense.
13. New York Jets
| Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon | 6’0.5″ | 197lbs |
Mar 8th: The Jets have taken the position as front runner for securing the services of Aaron Rodgers, and with Derek Carr signing in New Orleans, it seems like it’s “get Rodgers or we’re starting Mike White at QB all year again” time in New York. Which is to say… their offense is either set with Rodgers under center, or so far beyond help that taking a QB at 13 ain’t gonna fix it. So instead, they do what the Jets always do. Build elite defenses. HC Robert Saleh has a defensive pedigree and would love to do just that. So taking Christian Gonzalez to play opposite last year’s stud first round pick, Sauce Gardner, is definitely in the cards. With this addition the Jets would likely see themselves as a top tier NFL defense, which, even with a glorified game manager like Mike White at QB, would still likely have a shot to make a playoff run. Defense wins championships after all.
Dec 14th: I already have them taking their much needed QB, and while I could see them doing a number of other things, like I said earlier about them taking an EDGE, which is still on the table in a guy like Tyree Wilson, I think instead they opt to go for DB and take Christian Gonzalez to pair alongside breakout rookie Tariq Woolen. The Seahawks built their mini-dynasty behind the Legion of Boom and I think Woolen and Gonzalez could be the perfect candidates to start it up again.
14. New England Patriots
| Jordan Addison | WR | USC | 5’11” | 173lbs |
Mar 8th: The Patriots have had one glaring issue for years, and without Tom Brady at QB to mask the deficiency, it’s become all too obvious, they need help at WR. On top of their already weak group, they look poised to lose Jakobi Meyers in free agency, which will only add to their issues. The problem is, this is also an area where the Pats scouting department (or maybe Bill Belichick) have just not been able to hit in the past several drafts. Tyquan Thornton was a reach in the 2nd round last year, and he didn’t look all that special. N’keal Harry was a huge bust. And Addison… well he’s got a ton of upside but he’s very undersized. He will draw some comparisons to DeVonta Smith because of his physical build, but he doesn’t have his top end speed, as evidenced at the combine. But the Pats need the help, and with Quentin Johnston already off the board, I think we see them go with Addison, or, in true Patriot fashion, move back out of this pick entirely.
Dec 14th: A bit on the skinny side at 175lbs, Addison will surely draw some less than stellar WR comps. However, he’s got the tools to succeed at this level, and Lord knows the Giants need help at receiver. Wan’Dale Robinson looked good for all of the 5 minutes he was on the field, Sterling Shepard can’t stay healthy any season, Kenny Golladay might as well join a track team, because that’s all he’s doing out there, just running and getting some exercise. So the G-Men would be wise to address this deficit and draft WR talent, and Addison has all the talent in the world. He could be what it takes to get Danny Jones over the hump.
15. Green Bay Packers
| Brian Branch | S | Alabama | 5’11.5″ | 190lbs |
Mar 8th: With this pick falling to Green Bay, and with their question mark at QB for the time being, I think the Packers will focus on what they can control, and that’s the defensive side of the ball. They struggled to play consistently on D this year, and shoring up the backside of the D will surely help make that play more of a weekly lock than a guessing game. Branch would be a high pick for a safety, but teams seems to love his measurables and he has shown on the field what he can do, playing both in coverage and man to man, always bringing a physical edge along with him to the game. I think he would fit nicely in GB, though I was very torn thinking they might go OL with this pick, just in case they have to play Jordan Love this year.
Dec 14th: As appears to be a yearly tradition in Philly, they’ve suffered a number of injuries to their defensive backs. As such, they’ve been shown a weakness on their otherwise very stacked squad. Branch could be a day one starter at safety for the Eagles, or he could learn as a backup/special teamer for a while, that’s just the benefit of the Eagles having done well in constructing their current roster. But if he’s out there, I would expect him to make an impact, as a leader of Bama’s pro-ready defensive scheme, he should be able to make the transition easier than most.
16. Washington Commanders
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | Penn State | 6’2.5″ | 193lbs |
Mar 8th: Not much has changed on this pick from my December write up. I think Joey Porter Jr. is a fantastic fit for the Commanders, and we’ve seen them draft defense in the first round a lot over the last several seasons, so I think we see more of the same this year. They need an infusion of youth and talent in their secondary, and Porter brings that in spades.
Dec 14th: Not only is Porter a big CB at 6’2″… he’s a noticeably “long” 6 foot 2. One look at the guy and you wonder why he didn’t play basketball, other than his elite strength and NFL bloodline… of course. He’s a home run of a pick for the Commanders, who have good defensive players at almost every other position, just need to work on defending the outside WRs on opposing teams a bit better. But Porter is the answer to all of this, I envision him being an impact rookie DB who will factor into a lot PBUs in 2023.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State | 6’0.5″ | 196lbs |
Mar 8th: If there is one thing I say all the time… it’s that the Steelers know how to scout WRs. Plain and simple. They draft these guys and very rarely do they miss. Most recently taking Pickens, Diontae, and even Claypool his rookie season. I think JSN becomes the next guy in this line, and with Claypool being dealt to CHI, it makes a lot of sense for a team who likes to use 3WR sets, as well as helping their young QB and adding even more talent around him. They have their RB, they have a QB they seem to like, their D is in fine shape, and TE is not an area of need. So it comes down to JSN or an OL, and I think we see the Steelers take the best player on the board, which is JSN at this point. Even knowing they could use the OL help, I think they’ll try to add that later in the draft, knowing the OL run a bit deeper than the WRs in this class.
Dec 14th: Njigba holds the record for receiving yards (347) in the Rose Bowl, after he burst onto the scene last year. This year, he’s opting out of his Bowl Game to stay healthy for the draft, fair enough. I could see the Chargers taking him, as they’re projected to be over the cap already and may face some issues retaining both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. If they want the heir apparent, it very well could be JSN. However, he’s struggled to stay on the field this year, which may drop him down even further on people’s draft boards. But let’s not forget, he comes from a WR room that formerly contained Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave… two guys who have looked great in the NFL thus far.
18. Detroit Lions
| Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia | 6’4″ | 310lbs |
Mar 8th: The Lions take OL here. Put it in stone. They know what they need, they know the type of football team they want to be, coached by Dan Campbell, a guy who wants to run the ball down your throat and then eat a bowl of nails. So you go get an absolute mauler of a RT in Broderick Jones and you’re able to do just that. He can work in pass pro, he can open holes for RBs, and he’s pretty damn agile for a 310 pound man. I like him playing opposite Sewell, and that OL having two diesel bookends, with Ragnow up the middle and Vatai and Jackson at the Guard spots. That’s a unit I’d love to run behind. It’s also a unit who can provide Jared Goff (if he remains the QB there) with enough time to throw and make the right decision… so it helps all aspects of their offense to go OL here.
Dec 14th: It’s a Jets team coached by Robert Saleh… what do you think they’re going to do? They found out this year that Breece Hall is everything they ever hoped he’d be, and they also found out that Zonovan Knight is superb as well. They are short a QB who could really come in and take this team to the next level, but Mike White is a fine fill in, or maybe they go back to the Zach Wilson project again in 2023. Either way, this team needs to keep its QB upright and its RBs running through big holes, and Broderick Jones knows how to do just that after a nice collegiate career at Georgia. This fit makes too much sense, so it probably won’t happen.
—WILD CARD ROUND LOSERS—
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas | 5’11” | 215lbs |
Mar 8th: They already did the first thing I said in my December writeup.. and they let Fournette go. Now you take Bijan, pair him with the electric Rachaad White, and you get to work. Their next pick should definitely be OL, but if you can secure a guy like Robinson at this point in the back half of the first round, you do it. He’s elite enough to make an impact, and without a QB on your roster currently (ok fine Kyle Trask is still a QB but, like… is he?), you would surely benefit from having a formidable two headed RB backfield where both guys can make plays.
Dec 14th: What do you get the guy who has everything? A shiny new RB toy! Look, I’m a Rachaad White guy, no doubt about it. And Fournette has looked past his prime this season (as has the whole offense). But with a chance to nab this year’s Breece Hall, or last year’s JT, or… well you get the point… you do it. At pick 19 the risk is fairly low, you get White a much needed running mate who can do it all, and you let Fournette and his big cap hit leave. Now if Brady sticks around for another season, great. If not, you lean on the run and play game manager at QB with whoever you choose. But this is the right pick at this spot.
20. Seattle Seahawks
| O’Cyrus Torrence | OG | Florida | 6’5″ | 347lbs |
Mar 8th: O’Cyrus Torrence has flown up boards lately, mine included. He was originally a 2nd-3rd round prospect for me, but of late, I’m warming on the guy (okay fine I’m burning up). Could be because of his size… 6’5″ 347lbs… that’s an absolute monster of a man. And for a team like Seattle who likes to run the ball, who has just re-signed Geno Smith, and who has struggled to keep QBs in a pocket and not on the run for their lives… I think the pick would be a wise one. He can pass protect, he can run block, and he can move on some pulls and wham blocks like a guy half his size. I’d love to see Kenneth Walker behind Torrence with one man to beat…that’s a highlight reel run in the making.
Dec 14th: Not on my board. And if you say he was on yours in December… you’re lying.
21. Miami Dolphins
Mar 8th: Still scum.
Dec 14th: Forfeited pick for tampering and other malfeasance.
22. Los Angeles Chargers
| Bryan Bresee | DL/DT | Clemson | 6’6″ | 298lbs |
Mar 8th: The Chargers are now in possession of pick #22, and I think we see them go DL. Outside of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa (who are technically OLBs), without looking it up, can you name anyone on the Chargers who routinely lines up on the DL? Exactly. I think this is purely a draft of need for them, and Bresee makes a lot of sense. He can play either end of the line, or he can line up at the DT spot, being 6’6″ 298lbs and pretty damn quick gives him that versatility, and I think the Chargers will value that quite a bit.
P.S. The answer to my question above.. the Chargers DL last year consisted of Sebastian Joseph-Day, Austin Johnson, Morgan Fox, Breiden Fehoko, and Otito Ogbonnia. So yeah…. gross.
Dec 14th: Probably one of the harder picks to evaluate in this draft, given the needs the team still has and the amount they’ll likely be throwing around in free agency again, this is sort of a moving target for the time being. However, I could certainly see them adding more depth to the DL (or OL to help out Etienne and keep Lawrence upright, but I lean towards DL for now), and if that’s the case Bresee fits the bill. He, Walker, and Allen could be a force up front and get this defense back on track.
23. Baltimore Ravens
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | LSU | 5’11” | 195lbs |
Mar 8th: Boutte was a late declare, honestly he first said he would return to LSU and then came out and changed his mind, probably once he saw what a lot of us are seeing… this WR class is pretty weak. As such, there are not a ton of options for a team like Baltimore to choose from at this spot, and I think they would be wise to go with a guy who’s shown what he’s got on the field more than he does when you look at him on paper. Boutte is a shade under 6′ tall, sub-200lbs, and didn’t put up flashy numbers at the combine. But with all that being said, he’s a guy who shows up on gameday and plays his ass off. From the Ravens perspective, they just tagged Lamar Jackson, and if he stays/plays in BAL this year, he’s going to need more than just Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman to throw to, so Boutte would be a nice addition for the team.
Dec 14th: Not on my draft board because he had initially not declared.
24. Minnesota Vikings
| Kelee Ringo | CB | Georgia | 6’2″ | 207 |
Mar 8th: No doubt about it, the Vikings need to fix their defense, and they need to do it fast. They were in a shootout seemingly every single week last season, and even as they were winning games, they were the first 9-1 team to have a negative point differential in the history of the NFL. Which, while hilarious, is not a recipe for success, and that was made clear as they were bounced quickly and unceremoniously from the playoffs. So they should address the issues in their secondary quickly and draft Kelee Ringo. 6’2″, 207lbs, and just ran a 4.36 at the combine. That’s your answer to your defensive issues… and he comes from Georgia, a team whose players have translated very well to the NFL game the past few years. Trust the process, draft Ringo, and get back to your identity as an elite NFL defense.
Dec 14th: The Raiders need a lot of help, wouldn’t be surprised to see them go any number of directions on this pick, but I think shoring up their secondary is a must. The Carr-Adams connection is working at an elite level (Editor’s Note: LOL SEE YA LATER CARR), and they can continue to ride this and resign Josh Jacobs to keep the offense stable, but the defense needs help so they don’t need to win shootouts every single week. I think picking a big DB like Kelee Ringo who checks a ton of boxes in the physical attributes columns is a tailor-made Raiders pick.
—DIVISIONAL ROUND LOSERS—
25. Jacksonville Jaguars
| Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame | 6’5″ | 249lbs |
Mar 8th: Here’s what you’re thinking… Cory you big dumb idiot! The Jags tagged Engram! Why would they draft a TE?!?! You’re so dumb! Handsome as could be, but dumb dumb DUMB! Well guess what? I don’t care. Engram is a short term solution, and if he plays well again this season, great, maybe they can try to get a long term deal done again next year. But if not, they’ve got the replacement for him waiting in the wings with Michael Mayer. A big lad, 6’5″ 249lbs.. and while his athletic scores won’t be off the charts with a 4.70 40 time, he comps very well to Pat Freiermuth (4.77 40, 6’5″ 251lbs), and Muth has been solid since coming into the league. If you give Mayer the cushion of Evan Engram, some time to bring his game up to the NFL level, and use him in blocking situations instead of Engram, I think you’re setting yourself up for a lot of success in Jacksonville. The pick makes sense from both player and team perspectives, so I’d love to see this one get done. The only thing that sucks here…both guys would take a big knock to their fantasy football values if they’re splitting time with one another.
Dec 14th: I refused to put a TE in my first round after the Kyle Pitts fiasco, but here we are, Mayer could be one of 2 or 3 TEs taken in the first.
26. New York Giants
| Rashee Rice | WR | SMU | 6’1″ | 204lbs |
Mar 8th: So the Ravens and Giants sort of flip flopped picks, but Rice should be the next logical WR off the board and I love seeing him go to the Giants here. The Giants desperately need WR help, and they need a WR with some size. They’ve already got the miniature Wan’Dale Robinson, who I think we can say the jury is still out on for now, but they need a guy who can be big and strong on jump balls and someone who can be a potential red zone threat. Rashee Rice is that dude. He was originally listed at 6’3″, but the combine measurements brought him back down to reality at 6’1″, but he’s still got the athletic ability to be an impact player lining up against DBs who are likely the same size or smaller. A 4.51 40 isn’t ideal, which is why I think he drops down here to 26 overall, but the Giants don’t need him to be a burner, they need him to be a solid target and physical playmaker. Having inked Daniel Jones to a new contract, priority number 1 should be getting him someone to throw the ball to, and Rice is exactly that.
Dec 14th: This HAS to be a WR right??? Bateman has looked fine, but can’t stay on the field. Aside from that, you’re expecting Desean Jackson at age 76 to carry your WR room? Or Demarcus “I’ve never posted back to back good games” Robinson? At some point BAL needs to realize they don’t need 15 injured RBs and Lamar all on the roster, they need WRs who can stay healthy, play big snaps, and contribute. Rashee Rice has the size and stature that indicates he should be able to absorb the wear and tear of an NFL season and stay on the field. He’s like a young Anquan Boldin, and we all remember what a force he was as a Raven and Cardinal in the league. If Rice could have half of that man’s career the Ravens would count themselves lucky. And not for nothing, Lamar re-signing to stay in Baltimore might hinge largely on who they select with this pick.
27. Dallas Cowboys
| Cam Smith | CB | South Carolina | 6’1″ | 180lbs |
Mar 8th: While I would love to see the Cowboys take Bijan, he’s already off the board, so instead, they should go DB and draft Cam Smith to play opposite Trevon Diggs. Diggs is a risk taker at CB, and Smith plays a slightly more conservative style of corner, though he is just as much of a lockdown defender as anyone else in this class. What I said back in December still rings true, QBs were not throwing the ball to his side of the field, which is the only reason his INT numbers dipped this year. NFL teams won’t be fooled by this, and neither should any of us. Smith is an elite DB and will immediately be a starter in the NFL, no matter who takes him.
Dec 14th: Cam Smith was the hottest CB prospect coming into the 2022 season, and for some reason people have cooled on him. Well just because his INT numbers aren’t blowing you away, don’t be fooled. You can’t pick the ball off if they don’t throw it to your side of the field. He’s still a lockdown corner and I think NFL teams will see this, and the Steelers know they need help on the outside if they’re going to get back to the brand of football they’re known for.
28. Buffalo Bills
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Alabama | 5’9″ | 199lbs |
Mar 8th: With the Derrick Henry trade rumors flying around, and Buffalo being linked to him by a number of sources, this pick might change. HOWEVER, as things stand right now, March 8th 2023 5pm-ish EST… Henry is not a Buffalo Bill. So instead, they address an area of weakness and add Jahmyr Gibbs to run alongside James Cook, while letting Singletary walk. I think there can be no denying that Gibbs is the superior runner to Singletary, and this fit would make perfect sense given Buffalo’s strength on the defensive side of the ball, the holes they need to fill on offense, and the upside Gibbs offers any team that takes him. He also ran a 4.36 40… any team would love to add that speed to their roster, but especially the Bills who find tons of creative ways to use guys with wheels like that.
Dec 14th: The rich get richer. Other teams are forced to fill immediate needs and Jahmyr Gibbs falls right into the laps of Buffalo, a team who has been searching for an elite RB for years. Singletary has been serviceable, but has never taken that next step towards elite. James Cook has shown flashes as a rookie, but for every good game he has he’s got 3 bad ones. Moss was shipped out of town and Nyheim Hines hasn’t done much since the two were swapped in a trade. Gibbs has elite skills with the ball in his hands, and has breakaway speed that can be lethal, as well as the ability to break tackles when needed. He comes from Alabama, who has produced a long line of NFL ready RBs, and I think this will be more of the same. Buffalo will continue to tighten their grip on the AFC East with Gibbs and Cook as a 1-2 punch out of their backfield.
—CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP LOSERS—
29. Cincinnati Bengals
| Emmanuel Forbes | CB | Mississippi State | 6’1″ | 166lbs |
Mar 8th: I’m standing by everything I said in December about Forbes, but I’m a bit worried after the combine had him measured at 166lbs. That’s like………. very small. And with WRs nowadays trending towards 190-200 lbs… I can’t picture him trying to wrestle one of those behemoths to the ground. Imagine him lined up against Mike Williams… good luck young buck. But all that being said, his coverage ability and nose for the football keep him as my selection with this pick, the Bengals need some help in their secondary, and Forbes’ 4.35 40 is nothing to scoff at. He can run with anyone in the league and puts himself in a position to make plays, and once he is on an NFL training and diet regimen, he should be able to bulk up to 180+ and not lose any of his mobility.
Dec 14th: The Bengals are a team without any monstrously glaring holes, even though they have been snake-bitten when it comes to injuries this year at the WR position. But they’re not drafting another wideout this early. Mark my words on that. Instead, they go for Forbes, a guy who just narrowly missed out on the Jim Thorpe Award (given to the best CB in the country). He had 6 picks and brought 3 of those all the way back for TDs, so that should give you an idea of his athletic ability. The Bengals are sort of spoiled with options here, but their pass defense still needs some help and adding a guy like Forbes to the CB room is a smart play.
30. New Orleans Saints
| Tyrique Stevenson | CB | University of Miami | 6’0″ | 198lbs |
Mar 8th: This is the pick that I was torn between for Cincy (along with Eli Ricks, the Bama CB), but I think Stevenson heads to New Orleans here at 30 overall (pick via San Fran). They added Derek Carr at QB just the other day, and they have the weapons they need on offense (assuming MT will restructure and play there this year), so I think keeping their defense as one of the better units in the league should be a focal point for them in this draft. Stevenson has been getting a lot of hype lately, and I like him to be the DB taken here. He can play opposite Marshon Lattimore, take over the spot of Paulson Adebo, and keep Bradley Roby in the nickel back position. I think his versatility and physicality gives him the edge over some other guys who will slip into the second round.
Dec 14th: Not on my radar at all for day 1 guys.
—SUPER BOWL TEAMS—
31. Philadelphia Eagles
| Antonio Johnson | S | Texas A&M | 6’2″ | 198lbs |
Mar 8th: Both safeties from the 2022 Eagles campaign (CJ Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps) are in need of new contracts. Instead of spending up to retain their services, I think the Eagles would be wise to select a guy like Antonio Johnson who can play immediately in the NFL and fill a spot for the Eagles at a bit of a discount. Estimated to be about a 2.2M hit against the cap, the Eagles could be a team that benefits greatly from some young cheap support in their secondary, especially while they need to pinch some pennies and get ready to pony up the big bucks for Jalen Hurts, who’s due up for a contract very soon.
Dec 14th: I’ve had him pegged as an early Round 2 guy all along, but with Brian Branch moving up boards, it is possible we see the Eagles fill this need and take a safety late in Round 1.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
| Trenton Simpson | LB | Clemson | 6’2″ | 235lbs |
Mar 8th: I originally had Trenton Simpson mocked to GB, and although the team has changed, my reasoning hasn’t. Simpson has prototypical MLB size, and a 4.43 40 yard dash, and is still getting the Fred Warner comps (despite Warner running a 4.64 40). Simpson could be the anchor for the middle of the Chiefs defense, and with what we saw this year, they can make their offense work with just about anyone as long as they have Mahomes, Kelce, and Andy Reid, so I think it would be wise of them to target defensive additions via the draft more than anything else. They currently have Nick Bolton and Willie Gay inside, but I think Simpson is a huge upgrade over either on those two and would still make for a fine addition.
Dec 14th: We look at the GB depth chart every year and we mock it out like they’re going to take a WR as soon as possible, and it never happens. It looks like they hit on Christian Watson in the second, and they are going to stay true to this historical trend and tell Rodgers to make it work with who he’s given. Instead, they go for the Swiss Army Knife of LBs in this draft, Clemson’s Trenton Simpson. He’s got the prototypical MLB size and has drawn comparisons to San Fran’s Fred Warner. If that’s anywhere near accurate, the Packers would love to have him there to replace the aging, oft-injured, and cap-eating De’Vondre Campbell (or Preston Smith… take your pick).
