Week 14 – Start and Sits
November 27, 2024
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*Disclaimer: All stats referenced used half PPR as the basis for comparison, even though as we head back in time, full PPR or non-PPR were more commonly seen scoring configurations.
With the recent injury to Derrick Henry, who was absolutely rolling and on pace for the first back to back 2,000 yard rushing seasons in NFL history, and who many were already calling the consensus #1 overall pick next year in fantasy redraft leagues, I wanted to take a look back at that draft spot over the last several years and see who went number one, how they did, and what they had done to earn that spot in the previous season. Strap in for a bit of a long read!
–Spoiler alert: the results may shock you–
2010: Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
The beginning of the CJ2K days! In 2009, he posted 358 carries for 2006 yards (which at the time was the 5thhighest single season total, and still stands as the 7thhighest) and 14 TDs, which is just an outrageous season. He is still one of only eight 2,000 yard rushers in NFL history. He also added 50 catches for 503 yards and 2 TDs. So naturally, fantasy managers were scrambling to get their hands on CJ2K in 2010, and he was the consensus #1 overall pick. Well earned!
How it turned out:
In 2010, Johnson would put up another 300 carries, but would only amass 1364 yards, which is still an above average season, but a far cry from the 2k season a year ago. Still a decent output, and would still finish as an RB1, but he was toward the back half of the RB1 pack instead of atop the pile. Certainly not a bust by any means, and probably didn’t cripple your squad, but you’d like to have seen a bit more out of him than he showed.
2011: Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
AP had a good 2010, but nothing that would have knocked your socks off. The thing is, no one else had monster years either, and AP was showing himself to be one of the most consistent backs in the league, as 2010 was his 4thstraight 1000 yard rushing season. He also posted double digit TDs in each and every season, and he was starting to show improvement year over year in the receiving game, so all signs were pointing up for AP.
How it turned out:
Peterson had a great start to the season, going for double digit points in all but one of the first 10 games, and over 20 points in 5 of those. He was also a TD machine, going for 11 TDs in this timeframe. However, he would get knocked out of the Vikings Week 11 game with a high ankle sprain, and would return for about 1.5 more games, where he would eventually tear his ACL and end his season. A brutal injury at the time, people worried if AP would ever be the same runner again. Naturally, his draft stock tanked the following season.
2012: Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
2011 saw MJD put up 343(!!!) carries for 1606 yards and 8 TDs, while adding 43 receptions for 374 yards and 3 more TDs through the air. This was by far the heaviest usage of his career to this point, and it looked as though the Jags were content to run their offense through him. All signs pointed up for MJD and he had shown an ability to handle the heavy workload year in and year out.
How it turned out:
Heeeeeeeeeee played 6 games and that was it. 86 rushes for 414 yards and 1 TD and that was it. If you drafted him #1 overall, you were certainly cursing his name the entire year. But with that level of output, and the draft capital you spent to get him, you were sorely disappointed and likely ended up on the outside looking in to playoffs this season.
2013: Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
Coming off the ACL tear at the end of 2011, AP wasn’t the hottest draft pick in 2012. Well, those managers who took a flyer on him were handsomely rewarded. In 2012, coming off a late season ACL injury, AP posted arguably the best season of his career, taking 348 carries for 2097 yards and 12 TDs. He also had 40 catches for 217 yards and a TD in the air. He was the easy consensus #1 pick in 2013 and it’s clear why.
How it turned out:
279 carries for 1276 yards and 10 TDs in 14 games is nothing to be upset about. But it’s not quite what you had hoped for out of the 1.01 pick. While he certainly wasn’t losing you games, going for double digit points in most weeks, and over 20 points in a good chunk of them, the last four weeks that he missed time with injuries (he was on and off the field a ton) surely hurt as you made your way to fantasy playoffs. All of that being said, I’d say AP returned a fine overall value on your draft pick from a season long perspective, though you may have soured on the season due to how it ended.
2014: LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
This is right around the advent of PPR (and half PPR) leagues, and Shady was probably one of the first backs to make a living in these formats (alongside Jamal Charles, I would say). In 2013, Shady came out and really popped big. He had always been a solid pick for the last few years, the Andy Reid Eagles days were great to RBs who could catch the ball, and this was a couple years after Brian Westbrook finally called it quits. Shady would go for 314 for 1607 and 9 TDs but would also add 52 catches for 539 yards and another score.
How it turned out:
You got pretty much what you would expect out of McCoy. An RB1 finish, but not the number one RB overall. He regressed a bit to his career average (at the time), still posting 312 carries but only gaining 1319 yards and struggling to find the endzone with only 5 TDs. His receiving work also fell off a bit, going down to 28 catches for 155 yards. To be fair, a lot of these struggles can be attributed to the Sam Bradford/Mark “The Sanchize” Sanchez and their terrible QB play, but that does precious little to ease the pains felt by fantasy managers. So while not a total bust of a pick, Shady didn’t quite stay on pace for that top billing from a season ago.
2015: Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
A First Team All Pro selection for the first time in his career, Lev Bell went off big in 2014. 290 carries for 1361 yards and 8 TDs with an extra 83 catches for 854 yards and 3 TDs through the air. One of a couple RBs on this list who flirted with a 1k/1k year before CMC would eventually make it happen, so naturally managers (especially those who made the flip to some manner of PPR) were scrambling to get their hands on Lev.
How it turned out:
Horribly, horribly, wrong. Lev was popped for a 2 game suspension (smoking the DREADED mary-jane with teammate LeGarrette Blount), but he would be cleared to play by Week 3. However, Lev would only play 6 games in 2015, managing just 113 carries for 556 yards and 3 TDs, before a torn MCL would end his season altogether. Through 6 games that’s not all that bad, but it’s not what you signed on for with your 1.01 pick.
2016: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
You could also make the case that Julio Jones was in the conversation for first overall pick this season, but no matter how you slice it, the first overall pick is a WR for one of only a few times on this list. Let’s focus on AB, since he outscored Julio by about 10 points, and set his personal high for receiving yards (1,834), which still stands at 4thall time.
How it turned out:
I’d say if you took AB at 1.01, you ended up pretty satisfied with that selection. Coming off his stellar 2015 campaign, he managed another 106 catches for 1284 yards and 12 TDs. That would be good for a WR3 finish in 2016, so that ROI is pretty fair. As time has passed, people seem to have forgotten just how dominant AB was before he went off the deep end, but he was in the conversation as a top pick for years on end.
2017: David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
In 2016, DJ put a very solid season together, as he made the most recent bid (at the time) for a RB to have 1,000 yards on the ground and through the air in the same season. He went so far as to say in the offseason as managers were prepping for their fantasy drafts, that he “really wanted that 1,000/1,000 season” and would do everything he could to get it this year. So with all this being said, and DJ coming off a dominant 293 for 1239 and 16 TDs with 80 catches on 120 targets and 4 TDs, there’s no surprise DJ would be a unanimous choice at 1.01 in 2017. People seem to forget, he outscored the RB2 on the year, Zeke Elliot, by almost 60 points!
How it turned out:
Bad. Very very very bad. DJ would only play 1 game in 2017, dislocating his wrist and suffering damage to the surrounding joint and fractures to the surrounding bones. He would require season ending surgery after just 1 game, in which he posted 10 points. Since then, he has never made it back to that ultra-elite territory he found in 2016, and he’s been notably slower and less explosive. Tough break for a former stud.
2018: Todd Gurley (LA Rams)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
2017 would turn out to be the peak year of Gurley’s career, posting 279 for 1305 and 13 TDs, along with 64 catches on 87 targets for 788 yards and 6 more TDs. Easy to see why he’d be the number one pick the following year, when he scored 351+ fantasy points and beat the next highest scorer (Lev Bell) by over 50 points.
How it turned out:
Very well, as he would finish as the RB1 the following season as well (beating out Saquon Barkley by a narrow 2.3 points, and CMC by just 12.6). This is the most recent example of the first overall pick actually paying off and returning equitable value. Woo!
2019: Todd Gurley (LA Rams)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
After back to back 1,200+ yard rushing seasons, and over 500 yards receiving in each season as well, Gurley was the hot pickup and the Rams were on the up and up. He was also a TD monster, with 13 and 17 TDs in the previous two years. McVay was being touted as a genius playcaller, Jared Goff had yet to show the full scope of his ineptitude, and Gurley was carrying the ball and catching enough balls out of the backfield to keep him as a top tier RB1 every week. He also played every week of each season (except for weeks when the Rams had already clinched at the end of the season and he was sat for rest).
How it turned out:
Well, good not great. Could certainly have been much worse. But Gurley would go on to finish the 2019 season as the RB14 on the year. He only posted 857 rushing yards, but he was able to salvage the season with 12 TDs on the ground and 2 more through the air. For this list, we’ll call it a win, but fantasy manager expectation for the 1.01 pick is certainly much higher than an RB14 finish.
2020: Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
CMC set every record in the book for fantasy RBs in 2019, so coming off that year it only made sense that people were high on him heading into 2020. He finished the previous season with 287 rush attempts for 1387 yards and 15 TDs. He added 116 receptions on 142 targets for 1005 yards and 4 TDs, completing an absolutely dominant season and finishing as one of only a handful of backs to go 1k/1k.
How it turned out:
CMC would only play in 3 games this season, as knee, hamstring, ankle, and back injuries derailed his season. That being said, he scored 27, 22.8, and 32.10 points in the games he did play, showing those flashes of brilliance that all fantasy owners thought they would be getting all season. And thus… he stayed on rosters, ironically hamstringingthe teams that drafted him. But these flashes also ended up with him being the consensus number one pick again as we head towards 2021.
2021: Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers)
A look at his previous season and why he was the #1:
CMC did next to nothing in 2020, however, in the 3 games he played, as noted above, he showed flashes of the same dominance he put on display in 2019. And those little flashes were enough for various publications to say “if you’re drafting at 1.01, don’t overthink it, CMC is your pick”. And I’ll admit, when he was on the field, he looked amazing. And taking off the last several weeks of the season, owners had to assume he was fresh as we head into 2021 drafts.
How it turned out:
So far…not well. He played the first two games and looked like vintage CMC, posting 23.20 and 22.20 points, but then tragedy struck on the first drive of Week 3 against the Houston Texans. He went down with a hamstring injury, after posting all of 5 points, and we haven’t seen him since. As of right now, though his return is nearing, his status is still unknown as we head into Week 9. He is said to have been “very limited” at practice, so the outlook is still not sunshine and rainbows. Ultimately, unless he comes back and posts 30 points a week (which could still happen), CMC is shaping up to be more of bust than anything, and this will be the second year in a row he has victimized fantasy managers that thought they were sitting pretty with the 1.01 pick.
So there you have it, the history of the first overall pick over the last 10+ years. As you can see, more often than not, it hasn’t quite worked out, but some of the years it wasn’t quite as bad as I had remembered. But as we look forward to the future, it makes you really wonder how much value you should really be placing on getting the 1.01. It seems like every year when draft orders are picked, people find themselves hoping for the #1, but the chances of you missing on the pick seem to be quite high.
Hope you enjoyed the read! And always…Stay Fluid, Stay Loose.
