The Case to Fade Robert Tonyan

The time to fade Robert Tonyan has come, and it has come quickly this season. His usage is down across the board in 2021, as he is playing less than 50% of offensive snaps for the Packers, in two games that the passing attack was heavily featured. He is also giving ground to the superior blocking tight end in Marcedes Lewis, who is more than likely a large part of the reason Aaron Jones has found more space as both a runner and pass catcher, often running behind Lewis on balls thrown in the flat and screens and other short passes that some coaches and analysts will refer to as “extended handoffs”.

Tonyan currently sits as PFF’s 36th TE on the season, being outperformed by the aforementioned Lewis (61.4 to 59.9), largely due in part to the efficacy Lewis displays in the blocking game that Tonyan lacks. However, you may think this means he is dominating the snap count when it comes to passing downs, and unfortunately that’s not the case. Through 2 games, he has 56 offensive snaps, 46 of which he was an eligible receiver or ran a route. Compare those offensive snap numbers to some of the elite ranked TEs so far this season, Kelce, Waller, Gronk, Hockenson (in order, 99, 142, 108, 131) and their routes run (67, 96, 62, 95) and the trend becomes even more alarming. Tonyan has not been on the field nearly as much as the elite TE’s in the league, and no matter how you slice it, if you’re not on the field you are going to struggle to score points.

You also need to consider the matchups of these TEs when attempting to compare them to one another, and it took a one on one matchup with the third worst PFF ranked LB over the last 18 games (Alex Anzalone of the Lions and formerly the Saints) in order for Tonyan to finally make his way into the endzone for the first time this season. He got inside for a 22 yard TD on a well thrown ball by Aaron Rodgers, but other than that he caught two screen passes for a combined 30 yards and that was his day. Without the TD, we are staring down the end of two back to back poor performances to open the year, after a TE3 finish in 2020 had a lot of people high on Tonyan coming into this season.

But let’s talk about that TE3 finish from a year ago. We all remember the 3 TD game where Tonyan was able to post a 30 point day, and some of the other games where he wasn’t so fortunate and couldn’t get over the 5 point mark. TEs are great, when they’re consistent. And at times he would string together a couple good games before punishing you with a dud. But it’s been brought to my attention that occasionally you need to write off bad games and let it slide, so in following with that logic… needn’t we also write off the occasional outlier of a massive 30 point game? So let’s do that for all the TEs in the league shall we?

Kelce scored 260.26 FPS through 16 GP, a PPG total of 16.26. Removing a low of 0 and a high of 23.60 and dividing by 14 GP, he averaged 16.90 PPG.

Waller came in at #2 at 225.10 through 16 GP, a PPG total of 14.07. Removing a low of 1.90 and a high of 38.5 and dividing by 14 GP, he averaged 13.19 PPG.

Tonyan was number 3 with 150.60 through 16 GP, a PPG total of 9.41. Removing a low of 0 and a high of 30.80 and dividing by 14 GP, he averaged 8.56 PPG.

Hockenson is number 4, scoring 141.80 through 16 GP, a PPG total of 8.86. Removing a low of 0.80 and a high of 14.4 and dividing by 14 GP, he averaged 9.04 PPG.

Rather than bore you with continuing on down the line with Mark Andrews, Logan Thomas, Mike Gesicki, I’ll save you some time and let you know that Tonyan finishes outside of the TE1 range (outside the top 12 TEs) if you use this method of writing weeks off to eliminate some outlier performances. Tonyan takes the biggest hit in the top 12 TEs (and that was as far as I decided to check the math because it got a bit boring), but I’m willing to bet it was one of the largest in the league using the removal of high and low outliers. And why is that? Well most likely because aside from the 30 point outburst, Tonyan never even sniffed a 20 point game all year long.

So the reason I am putting the article together is this, it may be time to sell Tonyan in your league, regardless of where you drafted him or what you thought he might be able to do. You may be able to move him on his name alone, or the memory of a 30 point game, or the idea that the Packers offense will improve week over week. But for now, if you’re being honest with yourself, he snagged a TD against a hapless Lions defense who lost yet another starting member of their secondary on Monday Night, and he’s being outplayed by a 37 year old TE on his own team (not my words, that’s PFF so take it up with them). Is he good for the occasional TE1 week? Sure, but that’s entirely TD dependent and if you want to bank on TDs with TEs, I’ve got a bridge to sell you. The odds he turns 52 catches into another 11 TDs this year (a 21.15% conversion rate) is exceedingly unlikely. Give me the volume guys, give me the guys who are stacking up yards, and give me the guys who are actually on the field all game long. And if you have one of those guys, don’t get cute and trade them away for a promise of what could someday be. Keep the volume you have and smile, knowing your TE position is set for the season and you don’t have to worry about ebbs and flows in output.