The TSF Consensus 2024 Mock Draft: With No Time To Spare!!!
April 25, 2024
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Players are reporting to training camp and we already have multiple players on the PUP list. The season is in full swing, so why not start making some bold predictions? As a league, we will have our final bold predictions in mid-August, but for now I wanted to throw some early bold predictions out there for the 2022 fantasy football season.
Mike Evans, on paper, has been arguably the most consistent WR in fantasy since coming into the league in 2014. He has never finished worse than a WR2 in fantasy, even during his injured seasons. He has never had less than 1,000 yards and has 12 or more touchdowns in 4 of his 8 seasons. Since Tom Brady arrived in Tampa Bay, Evans has had 13 and 14 TDs.
Can he do that again? Absolutely. The biggest reason why is the absence of both Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, who demanded plenty of red zone targets the last two seasons. Let’s not forget that Chris Godwin could miss the first week and possibly more to start off the 2022 NFL campaign. With that, there are only Russell Gage, Scott Miller, and Tyler Johnson at WR behind Mike Evans. I do love Gage this season, but he is not Antonio Brown or Chris Godwin by any means.
Mike Evans will be the focal point of this Tom Brady-led offense, especially with an overweight Leonard Fournette in the early going. Evans is really the only red zone target at Brady’s disposal to begin the year. Remember 2007 with Tom Brady and Randy Moss? Well, I can see Mike Evans coming close to that for sure. Take his 14 TDs last season and make that around 20 TDs with over 1,500 receiving yards. If that is the case, he is easily a top 3 WR and possibly the WR1 on the season. This is a player going in the third round and he could pay off big time. Mike Evans will be the Cooper Kupp of last season.
As well as Damien Harris did last season, it will be difficult for him to repeat his 2021 production. In Half-PPR, Harris finished as RB13 (RB15 on a PPG basis). End of the day, Harris was a steal last year and I’m not arguing that, but he did this on the back of 15 TDs. In my mind, there is no way he scores 15 times again this season, and he did not even crack 1,000 yards in 2021.
Towards the end of last year, we saw Stevenson’s snap percentage go way up, and in most cases he ran better than Damien Harris. The reason that Harris was the guy to own was because of the TDs he scored. Harris is on the last year of his current contract, and if there is one thing we know about the Patriots it’s that they usually do not extend their RBs, so I expect this to be the last year for Damien Harris with the Patriots. You can argue that they will run him in to the ground, but with Stevenson looking better on the field to end the season, I expect the Patriots to use him plenty.
I believe it will be a split backfield to start the season, but with Stevenson being the better pass catching back, they will lean on Stevenson even more in 2022, especially in a 3rd down role. By the end of the season, Stevenson will be the RB to own in New England while Harris owners will be regretting drafting him. Stevenson’s ADP is currently RB37, while Harris’ ADP is RB25. Take a shot later on the better RB.
Can you tell I’m a Patriots fan? Well I am and this is why I am talking about another Patriots player who will finish better than his ADP. Henry finished as the TE10 last season and he is currently being drafted as the TE19 in fantasy football. I get that a lot of his points came on the back of the 9 TDs he scored last season, but Henry has always been a red-zone hog. In his rookie year with the Chargers, he scored 8 TDs on only 36 catches. At least last year he had 50 receptions to go with those 9 TDs.
Now Henry will not be part of that top tier TE group, but the fact that he his being drafted a back-end TE2 is insane. He was clearly the favorite red-zone target for Mac Jones last season and I do not see that changing in 2022. If the Patriots needed a first down, Henry was the guy they looked for to do so. I am not worried about Jonnu Smith at all, primarily because they play vastly different roles in the offense.
Henry is being drafted behind unproven guys like David Njoku, Cole Kmet, Albert O, and Irv Smith Jr., and while I get that all those guys are the sexier picks with “what they could do”, it makes more sense to take a shot on Henry at the end of your draft, as he is a guy that we have already seen produce in the past. Do not be cute with reaching for those other guys when you can have a TE1 with the last pick of your draft.
