2021 Breakouts

Chase Edmonds, RB

A 4th round pick in 2018, Chase Edmonds finds himself on a team that wants to run an up-tempo offense and in what would appear to be the starting role. After the Cardinals surprisingly let Drake walk and did not bring in much competition other than James Conner, it looks like the Cardinals are ready to deploy Edmonds as an every down back. If you don’t want to take my word for it, just listen to Kingsbury talk about him (INSERT KINGSBURY CLIP). A 5’ 9” 205lb frame isn’t ideal but we have seen it work at the NFL level (see Aaron Jones, CEH, Austin Ekeler). You also may not know this about him but he scored 74 Total TDS and 6700 total yards in his 4 years at Fordham, not a huge school but he received a huge body of work. Now look back at 2019, Week 7 against the Giants, after David Johnson got hurt and before the Cardinals acquired Kenyan Drake, and we see Chase Edmonds have a monster game as the bellcow. But in a flash it was over, he injured his ankle in Week 8, the Cardinals brought in Drake and that was it for Edmonds in 2019. 2020 however was a mixed bag, he started the season getting 30% of the snaps and mostly succeeded in the passing game, but after the bye week his snap percentage jumped to 50%, mixing in on the ground and through the air. Drake was well known for how well he caught the ball out of the backfield, yet Kingsbury still went to Edmonds in 2020 as he received 68 targets in the passing game. One fun little tidbit, he ran 87 total routes on the year, so he was targeted on 80% of his routes. With 247 vacated rushing attempts and 158 vacated targets, Edmonds usage certainly goes up and he provides a high end RB ceiling while being drafted as the 30th RB taken off draft boards in the 6th round. He is going after guys like Melvin Gordon, James Robinson, Raheem Mostert, Javonte Williams, Myles Gaskin. I truly believe in his 5th year Edmonds finally puts it together with the opportunity he has, his versatility in the passing game, and showcasing what he can do on the ground. There is no reason why those targets don’t jump up to the 80-85 range and he gets 160-170 carries in 2021. If that happens, watch out…because he will be a 3rd round selection in 2022.

Laviska Shenault Jr., WR

Now I previously had Travis Etienne as my breakout, but since he will now miss the entire 2021 season, I needed to find someone else. I am going to stay with Jacksonville but pick the young WR in Shenault. The reason I did not pick Shenault at first was because of Etienne. With the team saying they were to use Etienne in the slot role, that was a downgrade for Shenault, who tends to line up in the slot often. With Etienne out, the slot role and the end-arounds should belong to Shenault. I still am a massive fan of Marvin Jones, but I have recently ranked Shenault higher after the injury news to Etienne. The Jags have not looked great in the preseason, but the one thing to take away from it are the targets that Shenault is getting from Trevor Lawrence early and often. With DJ Chark still out and not looking to be ready until the start of the season, Shenault should pass him as the top WR there as he has been healthy all offseason and has been able to build a nice connection with Lawrence. I do not see the Jags being up in many games this season, which means they should be throwing the ball a bunch and with a new QB in Lawrence, why not? Shenault is known to be the short yardage WR, which helps him in PPR formats, but we have seen him in the preseason getting targeted deep by Lawrence which shows that Shenault can really do it all on the field. With Shenault not even being taken as a top 40 WR, it should be an absolute steal where you can get him in drafts and I believe he will finish much higher than what his current ADP.

Jerry Jeudy, WR

I feel like I need to disclose that Jeudy was one of my dynasty draft picks so I can still be seen as impartial on this one, but I really do believe Jeudy has a great shot to finally break out this season. He struggled in 2020, but let’s try to remember that it was an abbreviated offseason camp due to COVID, he lost his superstar WR running mate in Courtland Sutton, he had minimal practice time with his QB Drew Lock in a year they installed a new offense under a new coordinator, the TE that would usually pull a lot of coverage off in Noah Fant struggled with his own injuries, and the offense as a whole was ultimately lackluster. Now, enter 2021, and Jeudy is back in practice with Drew Lock who, from all the reports coming out of camp, looks fantastic to start the year, Sutton is trending up quickly and should be ready for the start of the regular season (though he might face a snap count or workload management plan early on), Fant is ready to take a step up in this offense, and everyone is one more year more familiar with the offense. All of the stars are aligning for Jeudy to become the guy we thought he could be out of college, and boy am I here for that! Reports out of camp also indicate that Jeudy has looked unguardable at times, using his speed and route running savvy to expose defenders. That’s exactly what you want to see out of a second year wideout. A WR44 finish last year should trend much closer to a WR2 finish in 2021 for the young stud.

J.K. Dobbins, RB

I am shocked J.K. Dobbins is not getting more hype going into 2021 than he is. Is it because it’s easy to say he’s going to be good so we’ll just not talk about him? Is it because the leading rusher on their team is easily the best running quarterback since Mike Vick? What is it? Why does it seem like we are talking more about Najee Harris, who is an unknown rookie behind a putrid offensive line, or Antonio Gibson who has a new pass heavy offensive game plan, or a Jonathan Taylor who now has way more competition for snaps. Why are we drafting Dobbins at 2.09?!?! I’m stumped, I’m flabbergasted, I’m being forced to listen to hot takes and being turned away from the obvious. So let’s start there, J.K. Dobbins lead the league last year in yards per carry at 6.0 YPC, and last time I checked, that’s really fucking good for the NFL. He started the year in 2020 as a backup in a 3 headed monster committee with Mark Ingram (who is no longer there) and Gus Edwards, and it wasn’t until Week 8 that he became the majority shareholder. From Week 8 on he averaged 12 carries per game, which was a whopping 8 more carries a game than what he was getting prior to Week 8. While finishing the year with only 134 attempts is very low, simple math suggests that if the trends roll over from last year, he is in for 60 more attempts in 2021 (including the Week 12 game he missed due to Covid rules.) Only an idiot would expect a massive scheme change from the Ravens, who have rushed it the most in the NFL each of the past 3 seasons, and in 2020 they rushed it 40 times less than in 2019. Guys, pay attention to the obvious. J.K. Dobbins at 200 attempts, with 6 yards per carry, and with obviously more goal line work with Ingram gone… It’s madness that he isn’t a first round pick. The only argument I can hear against J.K. Dobbins breaking out is that what? Lamar Jackson runs the ball? So? Who cares! Even if his efficiency numbers go down, J.K. Dobbins will be a top 5 back and this is just with simple math. I like simple, you like simple, keep it simple, stupid.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR

My god I am bullish on Chase this year. Listen, say what you will about Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and all that other garbage and the excuses you want to make about Chase not being the number one in Cincy… but all you will be doing is talking. The Bengals were atrocious at OL last year, they allowed 48 sacks for 345 yards, do you realize that’s 7 yards per sack? They allowed their QB, on avg, only 2.3 seconds to release the ball, they endured 195 blitzes, they allowed 72 QB hits, which ultimately lead to their franchise QB suffering a season ending injury. To put these numbers in perspective for you, they were behind only the Eagles in sacks and were identified as the team most needing to address their OL concerns. Enter the 2021 draft and Penei Sewell, one of the better OL prospects in recent memory and a fantastic building block to protect Cincy’s investment at QB. So they drafted Penei Sewell and the rest is history…oh wait, that didn’t happen, THEY DRAFTED A WR. Do you understand how good of a WR you have to be for a team who is literally the worst at protecting QBs, a team that invested a 1st overall pick in Joe Burrow, do you realize how good you have to be for THAT team to say, “ehh we will figure out how to protect Joe, this WR is just too good”. It’s honestly mind blowing, but instead Cincy gives Joe Burrow his NCAA championship winning WR Ja’Marr Chase. Also, not only does Cincy disregard their OL, they have 2 competent WRs already established in the offense in Boyd and Higgins, so the move to go and get Chase is just so overwhelmingly unneeded that it leads me to believe he is a shoe in for 140-145 targets, 90-95 catches, 1200 yards and 10-12 TDs. If that isn’t his stat line I’ll still gladly take him at the end of the 5th/early 6th round, ahead of guys like Adam Theilen, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones, Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, the list goes on. This kid is a stud. Be like Cincy and draft him.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR

My second breakout player of the 2021 season is Brandon Aiyuk. I truly believe that he is the WR to own in San Francisco, even with my love for Deebo Samuel. Last year Aiyuk missed the first week with an injury, and in Week 2 had just 2 catches for 21 yards, which makes sense for a rookie playing in his first ever NFL game. He brushed off the low fantasy game in Week 2 by scoring 18 fantasy points (half PPR) on a total of 8 targets in Week 3. Sure, Deebo and Kittle were banged up, but it showed right then that he was a guy the team trusted. He was drafted in the first round in 2020 amid rampant criticism, but I said from day one the Niners were a great fit for him. Aiyuk only played in 12 games last season as he dealt with injuries (as did seemingly the entire offense), but he was still able to total 96 targets and 60 catches with different QBs throwing to him the entire season. If Aiyuk played in all 16 games, he would have been on pace for 128 targets, 80 catches, 997 yards, and 7 TDs. Of course, those numbers may have been different if both Kittle and Deebo were healthy, but it’s still something to look at. Coming into 2021, he is being picked as more of a WR3 in drafts, although he was the WR #17 on a per game basis last season. One more year in the offense, and although I would rather Trey Lance under center to start the season, I still think Aiyuk will produce closer to a WR2 in 2021 with whoever the QB is. This is a sophomore WR I love and I think will make the leap and crush his ADP.

Irv Smith Jr., TE

Welp… here we are folks. I’m scraping the button of the barrel and actually taking a TE as my breakout player. But to be fair, Irv Smith is a more than fine selection. He should see a greatly increased role with the departure of Kyle Rudolph, and depending on the severity of Justin Jefferson’s shoulder injury and pending any potential setbacks or complications, he could be in line for even more. In any case, right now I would view him as third in the receiving pecking order for targets (Jefferson, Thielen, Smith) and fourth overall when you consider Dalvin Cook probably leads the pack over all of them. With that level of opportunity and his dynamic athleticism, he should not only be on the field often, but he should find himself in a position to make plays on a weekly basis. We saw last year he was often used in flexed out positions, which resulted in him drawing coverage from corners or nickel safeties, but if he is lined up on the line as a true TE (the role Rudolph usually filled), he should draw a lot more matchups with linebackers, and those are mismatches he should expose to great success. I’m very interested to see if they can get him more involved, and to do what I mentioned above he will have to improve as a blocker, but I think he is more than capable of accomplishing that. Additionally, Rudolph has always been a red zone TD vulture, and with that aspect removed from the offense, Smith may have more utilization in close yardage than in years past. TE22 in 2020 becomes TE12 or better in 2021 or I shotgun a brewski for all of you to watch on twitter.

Damien Harris, RB

Harris is a Breakout of mine for a very specific reason, he has been slowly groomed by the Patriots to become a 3 down back. He was drafted early in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft and basically redshirted his rookie season. 2020 was essentially his rookie season and he still only played 10 full games. He fractured his finger to start the year and didn’t enter the fold until Week 4, when he carried the ball 17 times for 100 yards. He never looked back once he started, carrying the ball more than any other running back on the team, averaging 13.7 carries per game and 5 yards per carry before he had to end his season short with an ankle injury. During that 10 game stretch he was the RB22, on the back of just 2 total touchdowns. If that number improves, and there are multiple reasons why I think it does, Damien Harris could end up being a mid tier RB2. He is currently being drafted in the 6th round as the RB30 and is below backup running backs like Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne, and Kareem Hunt. But back to why I feel his TD numbers grow, this year the Patriots find themselves in position for a QB change, one which will take away Cam Newton’s 12 rushing TDs and move them to the RB position, because let’s be honest, the Doughy Mac Jones isn’t going to rush a whole hell of a lot. The Patriots also brought in 2 Tight Ends that have a history of run blocking just as well as they can catch, and THEN the Patriots brought in the mammoth Offensive Tackle Trent Brown that left in 2019 to go to the Raiders. The name of the game is run this year for the Patriots. And of the running backs slated to compete with Harris, Sony Michel and James White are both slowing down, while Rhamondre Stevenson is a one dimensional rookie. Harris will be heavily relied upon this year and could really be a league winner at his current ADP.