The TSF Consensus 2024 Mock Draft: With No Time To Spare!!!
April 25, 2024
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There has been a lot of back-and-forth on who will go #1 to Carolina, but I think the dust has settled and that it will be Bryce Young. His size, of course, is a slight concern, being listed at just 5’10”, but he is the most NFL ready QB in this draft. I won’t talk much about Stroud since he will be coming off my board real soon, but the size difference is the reason why many thought Stroud could go #1, however Young will be the guy at the end of the day.
With Bryce Young off the board at pick 1, the Texans will be taking QB C.J. Stroud out of Ohio State. Like I said before, he has better size than Young, standing at 6’3”. The accuracy is there for this young kid, and he had a solid pro day to solidify himself as the QB2 in this draft. There have been talks that the Texans may not go QB at this pick, but they would be foolish not to.
As much as I like Jalen Carter in this draft, I believe Anderson is the safer pick here. Carter has plenty of off-field issues, which is why I believe Anderson will be chosen ahead of him in this draft. The Cards need plenty of help everywhere, but EDGE is a primary need for them going into this draft. He is explosive and fluid for a guy who is 6’4” and 243 pounds. The only reason I do not like this spot is because the Cardinals could trade this and move down during draft day which would ruin the entire mock, but that is the fun in this!
With the 4th pick in the NFL draft, we will see the third QB taken off the board with Will Levis. He had a great pro day and we even saw members of the Colts organization there and they praised him afterwards. Levis just looks like he needs to be under center for the Colts. The Colts did bring in Gardner Minshew, and as much as we like Minshew, they need a QB desperately. They tried bringing in veteran QBs the last few years to make it work and it was a disaster. They need to get a rookie and build from there.
Tyree Wilson has jumped up my rankings the last few weeks and the more I watch him, I can see him being an early pick, which is why I have him going here to the Seahawks. The EDGE position is much needed for this team to help build up that defense that is taking steps forward. He is a massive pass rusher at 6’6” and outside linemen are going to have their work cut out for them when going against this guy.
Like I said before, Jalen Carter has plenty of off field issues and concerns, and even though I said he will fall in the draft, it will be hard for the Lions to not take him at pick 6. Carter is the best defensive tackle prospect we have seen for close to the last 10 years. He fits well with the Lions mentality and if there is a coaching staff to get this young player in line, it is Dan Campbell and the Lions. The best defensive player in this draft will be a steal for the Lions.
At pick 7, I think the Raiders could go with an offensive lineman here, but it will be hard to pass up on Witherspoon at the CB position, which is still a need for this team. In 2022, he allowed only 22 total catches for 206 yards, while adding 3 interceptions. He has the work ethic and feistiness to be one of the better CBs in the NFL in a few years and will be a day 1 starter if chosen by the Raiders.
Anthony Richardson has flown up draft boards ever since the NFL combine and rightfully so. His college numbers were far from great, but the athleticism and ceiling Richardson brings to an NFL team is the reason he will be going in the top 10. We have heard that the Falcons like Desmond Ridder as their starter but let us not kid ourselves. They would much rather a guy like Richardson and in this situation, he does not have to start day 1.
The Bears did have the number 1 pick, but it made sense for them trade down to pick 9 seeing that they already have Justin Fields as their future QB. Fields played great to end last season and to help him even further, they need to build up that line. They already made some solid moves during free agency to help the line, but you can never have enough help. Therefore, they will select Skoronski at this pick. This is a guy you could play in his first season at guard rather than tackle, given his lack of arm size.
After the Eagles lost in the Super Bowl, they also lost several key players, one being Miles Sanders at the RB position. This is a massive hole they need to fill, and although I like Gainwell, he cannot be an every down back like Bijan will be. I get this is high to pick an RB, but there has not been an RB out of college like Robinson in years. If the Eagles want to have a chance to make it back this year, Robinson will be a massive addition for another Super Bowl run.
The Titans are on the board at 11, and although I think this is a team who could trade this pick, I will still make the pick as if they are keeping it. They will be taking OT Paris Johnson. This is a deep offensive linemen class, so you can even see them taking someone else here, but I truly believe Johnson is the second-best lineman this year. At 6’6”, he checks all the boxes with his size and physicality. If the Titans do intend to keep Derrick Henry, they will need to build up the line to help protect the biggest part of their offense.
The Texans make their second pick in this draft with pick 12. Now they already took QB at pick #2, and although they need help everywhere, they are lacking a WR1 on that offense. With Brandin Cooks gone, that is a large hole to fill, and they will do that by selecting JSN at 12. JSN is the clear WR1 in this draft class in my mind, even though he barely played in 2022. With this selection, he will be playing with his old college QB in Stroud. We have seen plenty of NFL teams link college teammates together in the last few seasons and I think they will continue that trend.
Murphy could go later in the first round, but I feel his skillset is too hard to pass up for the Packers. This is a position the team needs even though we all want them to finally draft a WR or TE at this spot after moving up. WR would make sense for them, but I feel this would be too high to take a WR with JSN already off the board. Murphy reminds me of Travon Walker, who was the #1 pick in last year’s draft. He needs work on pass-rushing, but he is a freak athlete that will learn those traits in the NFL.
Of course, we all want the Pats to take a WR at this pick with the lack of talent at that position on the team, but they have never done well with taking WRs in the first round, so I am fine to wait on that position until later in the draft. I think they will take Gonzalez here, and the Pats can never have enough CBs on the roster. We see it every year; they draft these CBs throughout the years and build them up, so they don’t have to pay veteran CBs when they are up for contracts (J.C. Jackson). Gonzalez hits all the traits you want in a CB to start right away in the NFL.
The Jets just traded for Aaron Rodgers (finally) and the roster looks pretty set in stone at this point. The offensive line has improved, but it would be smart of them to keep adding to it, especially to protect their investment at the QB position. Jones is a great tackle to bring in for Rodgers and it will be hard for defensive players to get through him. Priority number one is to protect Rodgers and that is exactly what they will be doing in the first round.
The Commanders need help at the CB position, so it makes sense for them to take Porter Jr. here. Porter Jr. is a press CB and can attack WRs at the line of scrimmage. The size is there at 6’2” and just in his last year of college, he only allowed 143 yards against him in 10 games. If that can transition to the NFL, the Commanders will have found themselves a gem.
The Steelers have not had a solid offensive line for some years, and that has shown. With that, it would be wise for them to take one at this pick, and that young man will be Darnell Wright. They need all the help in the world and with him being a four-year starter in college, he should be able to help them out right away. He took a massive leap his senior year and really stood out against Will Anderson Jr. when they played Alabama. If you can do it against him, you are looking pretty good for the NFL.
Detroit could draft the first TE in the draft at this pick, but I would really like them to add even more talent to their defense. With them already taking Jalen Carter early in the first, they will add Nolan Smith at the EDGE with this pick. I think it would be wise to add to the defense if they are truly trying to make a run this season and be able to compete with the best in the league. He is under-sized, but he is athletic and has the speed to make up for his lack of size. Detroit would be a great spot to go for him.
The Bucs have lost a lot this offseason and are likely to lose even more before the start of the season. Their defense was always solid in the Brady era, but the secondary was one of the worst in the league. Even though they were better last year, they still need to fill some voids. Therefore, drafting Brian Branch here makes sense. This is the perfect guy you want in your secondary and he is the best tackling defensive back in this year’s draft. He only missed 4 tackles all of his senior year.
Seattle went with EDGE Tyree Wilson earlier in my mock, and at this spot they will be drafting Michael Schmitz. I believe he is the best Center in this draft class, and this is something the Seahawks could use. He is bigger for the position at 6’4”, but he is known for moving around during the play in the outside-zone scheme they used in Minnesota.
Pick forfeited
Now comes the start of the WR run. On paper, you would not think the Chargers need another WR since they already have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but they were even linked to other WRs this offseason and in last year’s draft. With that, I believe they will still focus on bringing one in. I like Zay Flowers here and he has been pushed up boards the last few weeks. It is a good fit because he does not have to produce right away, but can learn from one of the best mentors in the game in Keenan Allen. Then once Allen calls it quits, Flowers can fill right in.
Now the Ravens just signed OBJ to a bigger contract, and with them also having Bateman, you would think they are all set. That is not the case. OBJ is pretty much on a one-year deal and who knows if he will even come close to being the OBJ of old. They need young talent at the position and Johnson makes sense for them here. He is one of the taller WRs in this class at 6’2” and fills into that X receiver role well. Adding another weapon to the offense will only help the team retain Lamar Jackson as well.
I wanted to have the Vikings take a WR here with Thielen now out of town, but they need much more at other positions and they can still get a WR even in the second round. The CB is a huge need and has been for years. Even more now with Patrick Peterson gone. Banks could even go earlier than this pick, but would be a great fit if he fell to them here. He ran a 4.35 40-yard dash and a 42-inch vertical during the combine. This guy is a freak and should be able to mirror many WRs in the NFL.
Jacksonville made a massive leap last season, and it looks like they are putting all the pieces together. I say it all the time, but the best thing to do to help a young QB is to keep building up the offensive line. Anton Harrison would be a great fit for Lawrence and the offense, and he is quick for a 6’5” guy. He allowed only 9 pressures on 447 pass-blocking snaps last season. I think Lawrence is going to like this guy.
The Giants have not had the best luck with WR the last few seasons. If it was signing Kenny Golladay to a horrible deal or drafting Toney in the first round only to trade him the next season. They still do have sophomore Wan’Dale Robinson who I think will take a step forward this season, but looking at the other guys, they need some help. Addison out of USC is who I believe will fall to them here and he is a great route runner that the Giants desperately need.
It is hard for me to have teams draft TEs in any mock draft, but this year is different. The TE class this year is one of the best we have ever seen, and Dallas will be the first team to take one. Dalton Kincaid is going to help fill the void of Dalton Schultz and is one of the best route-running TEs in this class. He will not help much with blocking, but that is not why you are drafting this guy. He will be playing the TE receiving role and this is something the team could really use to help make a playoff run.
The Bills have Diggs at WR, but outside of him, everyone else is a question mark. Gabe Davis gives us two games a year where he balls out, but that is not something you can lean on if you are the Bills. Hyatt makes sense here, and he could even eat into Davis’s role as he has elite juice to stretch the field. He broke out last season in college and crushed it during the Combine, and to boot, he had the best TAS score from us here at TSF.
Remember when I said I do not like putting TEs in mock drafts for the first round, well I am eating my words yet again and I believe the Bengals will go TE at this spot. Mayer is the next TE in the class after Kincaid that I believe will go in this draft and the Bengals sure need a TE. I get they signed Irv Smith in the offseason, but I am not sure they believe him to be part of their long-terms plan. Mayer will help block for Joe Burrow which is something that Irv Smith lacks. He is also no slouch in the receiving game after racking up 809 yards for 9 TDs last season.
The Saints have also had a great defense, but they lost some key players the last two seasons. I believe the team still wants to be viewed as a top defense and taking Van Ness here would help them do that. He is a great pass rusher with strength and flexibility. He is a nightmare for an offensive lineman, and we saw last season that he pretty much got through them whenever he wanted to. He would fit well with this defense.
We already saw the Eagles take Bijan Robinson with their 10th pick, and with this one they will help build their defensive line. The concern here is his height at only 6’ tall, but watching his tape, it did not seem to hurt him much when getting after the QB. He lead all interior defenders with a 92.4 pass-rushing grade last season and he has a great first-step to make it in the NFL.
You know what, maybe I do love TEs more than I thought because I am taking one once again here. This will not be a popular pick by any means, and they easily could go WR or RB here, but I think TE makes a lot of sense. Of course, they have the best TE in the league with Kelce, but Kelce is getting older, and he will likely retire in the next year or two. Musgrave has some of the best movement skills we have seen in quite some time. He has the ability to separate from linebackers and safeties which we rarely see from a TE out of college. What better fit for a guy than to learn under Travis Kelce his first couple seasons and take over the reins when he retires.
As predicted by some genius (me), the Bears traded the 1.01 pick and acquired DJ Moore from the Panthers, along with swapping first round picks. Very solid deal for a non-QB-needy team. This allows Carolina to have their pick of the litter, between Young, Stroud, Richardson, or Levis (in no particular order there). I do believe, despite my monstrous reservations, that the Panthers are going to pick Bryce Young. He has looked solid at the combine, his pro day, and now most recently has dominated the S2 Cognition Test. All signs, including the current Vegas betting lines for #1 overall pick, point towards it being Young. While I am still inclined to think Stroud has an outside shot, I think taking the safe money here is the right call, bet on Bryce. (As I say that, I put money on Stroud at +2500 for first overall lol).
Stroud tanked his S2 Cognition Test, and as a result loses his bid for the number 1 overall pick. However, I think he still has teams who believe in him, and the Texans are one of them. Hey, who knows, maybe he tanked it intentioanlly because he didn’t want to go to Carolina! Hold on just one second and let me take off my tinfoil hat. Alright, back to reality. Stroud lands in Houston with something to prove, and some decent weapons to do it with. He’ll need to do more to succeed individually than he would have in Carolina, but I think a guy like Stroud is up to the challenge. The Texans fill a much needed hole at QB and a guy like Stroud should fit their system much better than Davis Mills. It’s a high upside pick, but certainly comes with its own set of risks. As the S2 test creators say… no one has ever scored poorly on their test and then gone on to play well in the league. However, if you listened to the Pat McAfee show.. the creator of the S2 Cognition test adminstered to Stroud appears to have been flawed from the jump. RUMOR MILL SZN IS UPON US BABY.
This pick is probably one of the most pivotal turning points in the draft. I think this is our first big opportunity to see a trade during draft night. There are a lot of QB needy teams, and if Young then Stroud go 1 and 2, a team like the Falcons or Titans could look to leapfrog the Colts for this pick, and would likely be willing to compensate Arizona substantially. Given the fact that the Cardinals are in a full rebuild and have a lot of holes to fill, this would not surprise me one bit. Similarly, this could be a spot where they look to move Hopkins in conjuction with their pick. But for the sake of the trade-free mock draft, I think if the Cards were to make this pick they would look to add Will Anderson and replace the talent they’ve lost the last couple seasons on their DL. It’s a position of great need for them, and if they were looking to add an impact player at the 1.03 spot, Anderson would fit that bill
I’ve been on Will Levis for quite some time now, and I think it makes as much sense as ever for the Colts to stay the course and take him here. If someone leapfrogs them and takes him as their QB at 3, I think Anthony Richardson will be fine with them as well. But if they have their pick, I can only see them going for Levis. He is, currently, the more NFL-ready QB of the two, he has a cannon, he is durable, and he can instantly bring those big WRs along for a great ride. The Colts have sold off some pieces on defense, but have kept a lot of their core talent intact. I expect Indy to foster an environment where Levis can play a game manager role and lead the team to success without having to do too much. If they can lean on the running game and JT while working play action off that with the occassional long ball strike to Pittman, I think the Colts could find themselves fighting amongst the top of the AFC South come season’s end.
It might not have looked like it when it first happened, but I think for the time being we have to say the Seahawks have won the Russ Wilson trade. That deal netted them this pick, which they will use to select Tyree Wilson, a guy who has been flying up draft boards since his standout performance at the combine. He has the ability to play at a number of different spots for this defense, for a team that has spent the offseason trying to get better on D, picking Wilson makes perfect sense. He is an impact player who can start from day one in Seattle, and is a guy the fans will be excited to see as they try to reform their elite defense and harken back to the Legion of Boom from years ago.
I think this is the first spot where me and Craig disagree on the pick. I’m going Paris Johnson here for one simple reason… Dan Campbell. He wants to run the ball, we’ve seen that. But he also wants to run the ball down people’s throats and impose his will on them. That’s why they went out and snagged David Montgomery, and that’s why they will take the road grader that is Paris Johnson to bookend their offensive line, alongside their other young standout Penei Sewell. Having the versatility of a guy like Johnson, paired with his athleticism, is exceedingly rare. Pairing him with a similarly talented Sewell on the other side…well that is something that almost never happens. I am excited to see what this Lions offense can look like while their RBs have gaping holes to run through and their QB has all the time in the pocket he needs to get to the right read. We could be looking at one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL from 2022 getting even more interesting.
The slide for Jalen Carter ends with Vegas. They are in need of interior DL and have been for years. They have been soft against the run for too long, and for a Josh McDaniels coached team, and by extension a disciple of the Belichick coaching system, interior defensive linemen are highly valued, as is stopping the run up the gut. So the Raiders will attempt to address this issue with the Carter selection, and simultaneously carry on the tradition of disregarding character issues in the pursuit of immense talent. Don’t get me wrong, I think Carter has learned his lesson and has dealt with a lot of criticism for his role in that fatal accident while at Georgia, and I think he can put it behind him and become a massive contributor at the NFL level, much like his former Georgia teammate and standout Eagles DT Jordan Davis, but I can see why he would slide to pick 7 after formerly being mocked as a top 3 pick. The team that snags him will get a guy with all the talent in the world, they just need to keep him in line and on the field.
Nothing has changed for me with this pick since I made it back in December. Anthony Richardson is picked in the 8 hole and is now headed to Atlanta. Originally, this pick looked like it would go to the Colts, but with some end of season wins and losses shuffling teams around, Atlanta has found themselves in a prime position to take their QB of the future in Anthony Richardson. The great part about heading to the ATL for AR is this… he doesn’t have to start day one if he isn’t ready. The team still has Desmond Ridder, who can serve as a fine plug in while Richardson gets up to speed, yet there is no pressure to get him on the field this year at all. And if Ridder pays well, you have an immediately valuable trade piece for a QB-needy team. Flip side, Richardson spends some time with an NFL coaching staff and gets ready to play at the highest level of the sport. By 2024, he is ready to start, and for a guy with all the physical and mental tools (scored a 78% on the S2 Cognition Test) a little fine tuning of his game is likely all he needs to be a star.
This pick has changed hands since my last mock, but the pick itself has not. Chicago got this pick from Carolina when moving out of the 1.01, and they will use it to take Peter Skoronski, the uber-talented OL from Northwestern. He has the ability to play both Tackle and Guard positions, most likely Guard in the NFL given his T-Rex arm measurements, and for what the Bears are looking to do on offense this pick would make a ton of sense. Get Fields some extra protection, get their running backs a little more space to run through, and hopefully start to right the ship of what has been a disjointed offense for the last several seasons. Time and space are the determining factors in all things football, if you have time and space to operate you can succeed, if you don’t, you will fail. This theory is why Skoronski comes off the board here, as he provides both to the running and passing games. A guy with equal talent blocking in pass pro and in run schemes is hard to find, and at pick 9 he offers massive value.
In March I really thought this would be a pick that would bolster the Eagles defense, but seeing them work to improve their offensive side of the ball in the offseason has me thinking they might shock the world. I know it’s early, but taking Bijan Robinson here makes a ton of sense. They let Miles Sanders walk in FA, they haven’t brought in a ton of talent at the RB position, and Bijan Robinson would come in on a fairly cheap rookie deal for them, ensuring that they aren’t breaking the bank at the RB position despite having one who could be near the top of the league from the day he steps on an NFL field. If I were Bijan, I would be stoked to be selected by the team with the best offensive line in football for 2 straight years. This pick might seem early, but it makes a ton of sense and it is hard to argue against.
I think I’m staying firm on my original selection at this spot. Tennessee should go with a lockdown corner that can get their defense on track. Witherspoon can play from day 1 for the Titans and likely blossom into a stud at the back of their defense in the years to come. I don’t hate either of Scott or Craig’s individual selections here, both JSN and Paris Johnson make a ton of sense. Unfortunately I already have PJ off the board and I think the smarter play for Tennesee is to go with the defensive side of the ball over adding another weapon for the aging Tannehill or nearly useless Malik Willis to try to throw to. However, the sneaky selection I almost filled in here… Hendon Hooker. Be on the lookout for him to go in the first round to a QB needy team… and Tennessee has been linked to him for a while now. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see them trade back and try to snag him a little later while adding additional pieces to help fill their many holes on both sides of the ball.
I’ve had this pick mocked out as Quentin Johnston for a while now, but lately I’ve been cooling on him. I think JSN is the guy here. I think he has unlimited upside, and the comps to Jamarr Chase and Justin Jefferson are very warranted. If he can produce even at 80% of the level that those guys do… the Texans and their newly picked QB will be extremely happy.
Well FINALLY we have it. The Packers and Jets agree to terms for the Aaron Rodgers deal. This pick becomes the property of the Packers in the swap, moving them up a couple spots, but here’s the kicker… I don’t think the player I have picked changes. Gonzalez would line up opposite Jaire Alexander and form one of the best DB duos in the league immediately. This should allow the Packers to stay competitive and build for the future, without compromising their ability to tank if they think they have a shot at Caleb Williams in 2024. For the time being, an elite defense with some cheap rookie contracts is just what the doctor ordered, and would also allow Jordan Love to fill a game manager type role in 2023 rather than have to play lights out and drop 40 points a game to win.
As a Pats fan, you’d think I would have half a clue what they were going to do here. But if there’s one thing that’s consistent with Patriots drafts, it’s that they never do what people expect them to. I think, if the Pats actually make this pick instead of trading out of it, they will do what we’ve seen them do with top picks in the past, and that is draft OL. Broderick Jones has the size, strength, and ability to play either Tackle spot for the Pats, and I think that is something that Belichick will value. If he can line him up on the end of the line, let Onwenu move back to Guard where he is a more natural fit, and then hopefully get some growth out of Cole Strange in 2023, the Pats OL could return to being a strength of the club rather than a glaring weakness.
In the swap with GB for the Rodgers deal, the Jets now have their selection at pick 15. I think the Jets will look to continue the success of what they’ve done the last couple drafts, and what they’ve done all offseason. They will strengthen their offense and in order to do this they will draft Darnell Wright. Mekhi Becton has struggled to stay healthy, but has been solid when on the field. Alijah Vera-Tucker was playing fantastic football until he also went down with a season ender. Bring back these guys and add in Wright, and you’ve got 3 studs on the your line, plus vets like Laken Tomlinson, Cedric Ogbuehi, and Connor McGovern. Having a solid OL allows the Jets to do exactly what they want to do on offense, and also protects their new investment at the QB position, Aaron Rodgers. This move makes so much sense…. that it’s almost guaranteed not to happen.
I’ve been set on this pick since December, and I’m not moving on it now. Joey Porter Jr. fits what the Commanders want to do, and adds another stud rookie to a defense that’s loaded with them. Check out my past mocks if you want more intel on why this is my pick.
JSN shot high enough up draft boards that he won’t be available for the Steelers at this pick anymore, but not to worry, they’ve got options. They’re by far one of the best teams at scouting WRs in the league, but I don’t know that there are any WRs they’ll consider worth selecting here. Instead, I think they take one of the more interesting OL prospects, O’Cyrus Torrence. I love what Torrence can offer a team on their line, and the Steelers desperately need to keep Pickett upright if they intend for him to have any success. While I could see them going for a WR or other offensive weapon, I think OL is the much safer and smarter pick here.
The Lions addressed their needs at OL earlier in this draft already, and unless they do something stunning and take Hendon Hooker as the heir to Jared Goff here (which I do think could happen), I think it’s more likely that they focus their gaze on replacing their lost TE superstar TJ Hockenson, and in this deep TE draft I think they can take their pick at 18 and get the guy they like most. I think that guy is Michael Mayer, but could easily be Darnell Washington when you factor in how Dan Campbell loves to run the ball. I think Mayer offers more as a pass catcher and direct replacement for Hock though, so I’m going for the guy who is a more seamless transition than the one who would require much more of a mentality shift in what DET wants out of their TE spot to fit.
With the Eagles nabbing Bijan at 10, Tampa needs a new pick here for my mock. I’ve had Bijan mocked here for months, so I’m bummed I have to change it. But with the Bucs moving on from their longtime OT Donovan Smith, they will need to replace him sooner rather than later. And with Baker Mayfield set to play under center this season, they will need to protect him if they want to have any chance to succeed. With the talent still on this Bucs team, I can’t see a world where they tank and give up on the season, especially in a wide open NFC South division, so adding a key blocker who can help their offense in both the passing and running games makes a ton of sense.
I originally had this pick going OL, but I think the Seahawks will do what they do best, and that’s select yet another stud defensive back in Safety Brian Branch. He can transform a defense, and paired with some of the other impact players Seattle has recently selected (looking at you Tariq Woolen), Branch should look to reform that Legion of Boom I keep talking about on every podcast. The standout Alabama product should find a happy home in Seattle and hope to make Geno’s life easier as a game managing QB with an elite defense backing him up.
Pick forfeited
My opinion on this pick has not changed at all. The Clemson standout is the perfect pick for the Chargers, who are needy on the interior of their DL. They’ve got fine edge rushers in Bosa and Mack, their LB core could use some work, but that’s something they can address later, and their DB situation is fine for now, assuming JC Jackson can remember how to play CB in the NFL. On offense, they need to figure out what to do with Ekeler, and if they don’t extend him I could easily see this as a spot where Gibbs could be picked, but instead, I’m assuming that will work itself out and the Chargers choose to keep their current WRs in place and focus on the defensive line for a change.
All the other teams making moves for the defensive side of the ball leaves the Ravens as the first major beneficiaries. Instead of taking a flyer on Kayshon Boutte, who seems to have played himself out of the first round entirely with his poor combine and pro day, instead, they get a shot at the guy flying up boards, and that is Zay Flowers. They could go a couple directions here that wouldn’t shock me…Johnston, Flowers, Rice, and Addison are all in the same tier if you ask me, but I think Flowers is the guy who has been piquing the interest of most teams as of late.
Defense remains a primary concern for the Vikings, and a guy like Ringo and his blazing speed at CB can be the type of guy who turns a defense around from day 1. I’m not moving off this pick here for them, despite my TSF cohorts both going WR here. I think Justin Jefferson and KJ Osborn are more than enough at the WR position, especially with Hockenson at TE. I’d rather see them lock down the defensive side of the ball so they don’t have to win every game in a shootout this year, something that they saw is much harder to do in the playoffs and can lead to a first round exit.
Originally I had these guys going TE, but I think OL is the safer bet here. Dawand Jones is a monster of a human being at 6 feet 8 inches tall and 359 pounds, and he’s a great fit to bookend the Jags OL in the wake of the departing Jawaan Taylor. For a team that wants to run the ball effectively and work play action and some gadget plays off of it, I think this pick makes sense and works for how they want to run their offense.
This pick is still going to be Rashee Rice in my mind. I know you’ve got Addison and Johnston still on the board, but I just have a feeling Rice fits better with the Giants than either of the other two. I think when the time comes, the Giants will stick with Rice and be happy to give Danny Jones a big, fast, strong WR who can go get the football and run every route asked of him.
I originally had the Cowboys taking Cam Smith because they had a need at the CB position, but then they went out and acquired Stephon Gilmore to play opposite Trevon Diggs. Well guess what? I AINT CHANGING A DAMN THING! So what, they’ll have 3 great CBs now and hopefully maybe finally defend against the pass. And hey, at the end of the day, Gilmore is still 32 years old, he won’t be around forever, and in the meantime he can help Cam Smith become a lockdown corner in the NFL, just like Gilmore was for his whole career. If I were any team in the NFC East I would not be thrilled at the prospect of lining up against the 3 of these guys on gameday.
With the addition of Damien Harris to their RB room, I think the Bills will look to another position other than RB here. They could still theoretically add to the position in the later rounds, but for right now, I think it would make more sense to move for a WR. Given the talent on the board that has dropped to them here, Quentin Johnston is a guy who can play alongside Diggs, learn from him, and possibly even one day replace him, if the star WR finds himself continuing to be unhappy in BUF after the playoff fallout. The trio of Diggs, Davis, and Johnston could be a force with Josh Allen distributing the ball around to all 3, stretching defenses, and then hammering the ball with their combo of James Cook and Damien Harris. It’s always tough to make a pick for a team that seems to have everything, but this is the way I am leaning for right now.
Still standing by my Forbes selection here. Been saying it since freakin December!
He’s undersized, I get it, but here’s the thing… No one in the country rushed the passer like he did this past year. So, the Saints pivot and move from my originally mocked position of CB and go DT instead, and replace some of the lost talent from this offseason, including David Onyemata, who proved to be a standout for them last season. For a team that needs to rebuild, replace talent, and get some players who can contribute while on cheap contracts, Kancey is a perfect start.
I think the Eagles still need to replace the lost talent at their S position, and although it would be a reach to go S here at 31, that’s the benefit of not having a ton of holes to fill, you can reach on a guy without it being a killer to your whole draft. They can draft more pieces to try to round out the rest of the team with some depth in the later rounds, but here I think they would be well served to address the position of the most need on their roster. Antonio Johnson comes in and plays like a force from day 1 and can become a fan favorite, harkening back to the Weapon X days in Philly.
Another year that the spoiled Kansas City Chiefs get to scoop an elite talent that falls in the draft for no real reason. A season ago they were able to snag George Karlaftis late, and this year they will do the same with Myles Murphy, a guy who was originally projected as a top 10 prospect. This is another case of the rich getting richer, and Murphy should pair with Karlaftis and the rest of the KC front line who constantly cycle in and out, get paid very little, and make an impact all over the field. Karlaftis was wreaking havoc in the playoffs, repeatedly getting to the passer and rushing their decision making, and Myles Murphy can do the exact same thing. I think Gibbs is another guy who could go here, but with CEH and Pacheco still under contract and the probability that McKinnon ends up back on the team at some point.. I don’t see it as entirely likely to happen.
Here’s the thing, I am creating this mock based on what I think the teams will do, not what I think they should do. In this particular instance I disagree with this pick, I like C.J. Stroud better, however Vegas has Young at -1050 at the moment I am typing so it appears Young will be moving to Charlotte. Those odds are too large to ignore, and while I’d rather have Stroud, Young is as good as QB prospects come. His strengths are accuracy, game management, and overall Football IQ. He also has above average athleticism and championship pedigree. He will be a safe starter in the NFL for many years to come.
This is my favorite QB in the draft, he has all of what Bryce Young has except more size and much more arm strength. The Houston Texans, for some reason, are sending out signals that they only want Bryce Young, but in my opinion are lucking into the better QB.
To be clear, I unfortunately don’t have trades baked into my drafts, as guessing the trade partner and then the player selected correctly pre-draft is like getting in the mind of Antonio Brown and guessing his next tweet; it’s not impossible but you know the most random surprising thing can still be conjured up. This is obviously the most interesting spot in the draft as it’s pretty clear this pick is going to change the course of the whole draft. Say something dramatic happens and either Young or Stroud are available at 3, a QB needy team will be paying up here. Say a team like the Titans, Raiders, Falcons, or Commanders fall in love with Anthony Richardson or Will Levis and want to jump the Colts to take the 3rd QB, a team will pay up. If the Cards are smart they play that narrative to every team because the Cardinals need a lot and will likely be picking at the top of the draft once again next year. If the pick is not traded, which again is unlikely, the best player in the entire draft will be taken, and that’s Will Anderson Jr., a menacing defender likely to be the next big household name as everyone watches their QBs get wrecked asking who the hell is that guy.
The Colts taking Levis over Richardson is more of a clear organizational understanding that this team is built to win earlier rather than later and the Colts do not have the time it will take for AR to develop. Levis is a bit of a shaky QB prospect but is more NFL ready than Richardson and also has great potential. His arm strength and underrated athleticism are great attributes to have to be successful, and with the correct coaching Levis could be a long time starter for Indianapolis.
The Seattle Seahawks really won the Russell Wilson trade huh? Nabbing a top 5 pick after trading their franchise guy is what NFL GMs dream about. With the 5th pick, the Seahawks move their offensive star to the defensive side and select Tyree Wilson, an amazingly talented EDGE rusher who has shown he can rush the QB with ease and has the length to line up in many spots on defense. The Seahawks have bolstered their defense in Free Agency, and by adding a guy like Wilson the fans can get excited to watch both sides of the ball this fall.
I’m really hesitant to take Jalen Carter anywhere because of the off-field issues this past winter, but I believe Dan Campbell will have talked to Jalen Carter quite a bit, as even before the tragic accident Carter had a tough personality, which fits the Lions well. I do not know Carter at all, but I believe he has to have learned some harsh truths and faced tough realities that some of these young kids have not yet learned. With his absolute freakish athletic gifts and hopefully a newfound maturity, Carter could be a dominant force in the NFL, and pairing him next to Aiden Hutchinson could make the Lions unbreakable.
The Raiders might be the most mysterious organization in the NFL, and not in a good way. They have had so much turnover the last decade going from coach to coach and this past year they said goodbye to their longtime starting QB in Derek Carr after just signing him to a long-term contract. I’m not sure what they will do to be honest, but If they are looking at making a rare logical move, they should be drafting an Offensive Tackle. I like Paris Johnson here, he has the pedigree of playing in big games against tough opponents and his skills translate best to blocking the speedier NFL pass rushers trying to get to the QB.
I truly think the “We believe in Desmond Ridder” narrative is just lip service, and if AR somehow falls to them at 7 or is available to be taken around pick 5, I expect the Falcons to be trying to trade up to get him. The Falcons surprisingly have a lot of young talent on this roster, but they need a true difference maker and we all know AR could be that. We’ve all heard about him at this point, he is this year’s Trey Lance, he’s extremely intriguing and has massive upside, but he needs time to develop and the Falcons can offer that as they aren’t really knocking at the playoff door in 2023.
I absolutely love this fit for Chicago. A lot of mocks I’ve seen have had a CB going here, and while that could very well be in the cards, I don’t know how the Bears pass up a big mauling offensive tackle like Jones. He fits perfectly for what they are trying to do, which best suits the run first offense with Justin Fields.
Here it is folks! The next best running back since Saquon and he is going to the 2022-2023 NFL runner up. This fit almost seems too perfect to be true, as the Eagles have by far the best offensive line in football. This is a fantasy managers wet dream and there may be some bias in this selection because of that, but I truly see the Eagles capitalizing on their strengths and putting their offense on track to be one of the best in 2023 with an extremely balanced pass/rush attack.
There is still a lot of talent left on the board, and if there is a team eyeing Christian Gonzalez this might be a spot where we see a trade for him. I was thinking there’s a shot the Titans like Hendon Hooker here, or maybe adding the best Guard in the draft, but for the second straight year I have them going WR. It is my opinion that JSN is a can’t miss prospect and is the best WR in this draft. I feel he should fit well in the slot for the Titans while using Treylon Burks on the outside.
The slide stops here in my mock and to be honest, I don’t think he falls this far, but Houston jumps on the opportunity and helps their secondary in a big way. You could make a case for Witherspoon or Porter Jr. as the top CB prospect, but when you check the tape he is unbelievably fluid and at his 6-2 size he is going to be able to match up with some of the best WRs in the league. He is a good tackler and is versatile enough to play elite man and zone defense with ease.
Oh how much I’d love for the Packers to select a WR in the first round now that Rodgers has left, and it is honestly the smart choice to help out Jordan Love, but history tells me they will pass. The Packers have lost so much this offseason I am starting to think they are going to mail it in for a shot at Caleb Williams next year, so here I am giving them Myles Murphy who is built to be a pass rushing stalwart in the league, but may need a year to develop into that.
I think it is no surprise that my first thought is that the Patriots try to trade this pick back, but they do have a few options if they decide to stay. There are questions in the secondary (mainly their height) so I can see Joey Porter Jr. here. There are obvious questions at WR, but they never draft those well. And finally another spot could be defensive line with a stud like Nolan Smith still available. After reviewing all available and not allowing trades for the mock, the pick of Peter Skoronski makes a lot of sense. They bailed on their former first round pick Isaiah Wynn this offseason and have pieced together some spot start OT’s via FA, but Skoronski is the best pass blocking OT in this draft something the Patriots really need to prioritize.
The Jets have obviously been busy this offseason helping out their offense, and it won’t stop at the draft. This pick may very well be the end of the hope we all had for Mekhi Becton, but the Jets truly need to move on and solidify the tackle position for newly acquired Aaron Rodgers. Wright is a massive tackle at 6-5 333 lbs who excelled in pass protection last season and took Will Anderson completely out of the game last year when Tennessee played Alabama. He is exactly who Aaron Rodgers will want protecting him, just like Bakhtiari did in GB for years.
The Commanders have some pretty big needs, notably QB, but I don’t think they pass up on Witherspoon as CBs continue to slide in my mock draft (not by design, but hey something has to give). Witherspoon is a very aggressive man corner who can someday be a #1 island type guy, so the Commanders really just go best available with their pick.
For years now the Steelers have had one of the worst offensive lines in football, but now they are starting to address it. In free agency they got a great pickup in Isaac Seumalo at guard, and so here they continue their focus on the offensive line. Anton Harrison has played LT for the Sooners since he was a freshman and may just have the most snaps played of all positions in this entire draft. He has been a mainstay for their offense only allowing 4 sacks the last 3 years, with only allowed all of 1 last year. This is a huge pick up for the Steelers.
If the Lions actually draft both Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, I’d argue they would have the best draft of all teams just from round one. Nolan Smith is an absolute freak athlete who ran a sub 4.4 40 yard dash at the combine and who will slide in at Linebacker for the Lions. Not only does he have the pass rushing pedigree, he is surprisingly better at stopping the run. Man, if the Lions pull this off Brad Holmes should be named GM of the year.
The Tampa Bay Bucs are in for a rough rebuild, they don’t have a stellar future QB to hang their hat on and they’re really cap strapped, so they need to start getting cornerstone young pieces to grow with this team. Joey Porter Jr. is going to be that guy for them, he’s a big CB at 6-2 and has the chance to develop into an All-Pro, thanks to his physicality and stout coverage. Last year at Penn State he didn’t allow a single TD and only allowed 143 yards, those are impressive stats even though he had no takeaways.
The Seattle Seahawks have been one of the best teams the past two decades at drafting secondary players, and finding Tariq Whoolen last year was no exception. This Free Agency period they added Julian Love, and if they can also swing adding Branch we could see a Legion of Boom reboot following in the footsteps of all primetime television networks nowadays.
Pick forfeited
I didn’t see it shaking out this way, but this is the beginning of the run on WRs. The Chargers do have higher needs but these WRs have slipped too long and with questions surrounding Keenan Allen and Mike Williams they need to find a guy to stick with Herbert for the long term. That guy is Zay Flowers. You can order these WRs any way you want, but after JSN there is a noticeable dip in talent.
The Baltimore Ravens have a huge primary need at WR, outside of signing Lamar of course. With Jordan Addison still sitting on the board, things have worked out better than I thought for them. After signing Odell and having Rashod Bateman both taking outside WR reps, Addison slides in perfectly into the slot.
This is my second favorite WR in the draft, but based on other scheme fits for the other WRs on the board, Johnston falls into a perfect spot for the Vikings. Could you imagine opposite Justin Jefferson a WR like Quentin Johnston?! We definitely saw Adam Thielen lose a step these past years with Jefferson, but my god if these two were on the field at the same time… Good luck to opposing secondaries.
I actually had a lot of difficulty on this pick for some reason until I saw Trent Baalke’s draft history with the 49ers. He is actually very solid at picking Offensive Linemen with the likes of Joe Staley and Mike Iupati to name a few. The Jags just lost Jawann Taylor so they have a need at Tackle and Dawand Jones is a monster, sitting at 6-8 374 lbs. He has unreal athleticism for his size and offers great pass blocking ability, not allowing a single sack last season. I’m honestly thinking I have him too low here.
With one of the best pass rushers left on the board, the Giants go Van Ness here. He spent nearly every snap on the field bull rushing linemen, but hardly anytime defending the run. He will be used situationally in the NFL just the same as he was in college, but boy is he good at getting after the QB, something the Giants desperately need to get better at.
The Dallas Cowboys have had a lot of turnover on their offensive line and it just so happens the best interior guard is still available on the board here. He is an absolutely outstanding run blocker and an even better pass blocker, as he never allowed a single sack in his collegiate career, which was 3 full starting seasons for Florida.
Jalin Hyatt is a pure burner who took the top off any opposing defense for the Volunteers last year, and I know that’s what the Bills are hoping they get with him here. It is later in the round and if the Bills really like a specific WR, I’d expect them to trade up, but Hyatt is a great consolation prize if they can’t move up in the draft or find a way to trade for Hopkins. He reminds me a lot of John Ross, but Hyatt doesn’t come with the injury history John Ross did.
From everyone I’ve talked to and everything I’ve heard, everyone loves Emmanuel Forbes, there’s just one thing… He’s 166 lbs and that is very thin. Luckily an NFL training staff will put on about 10 lbs before the season starts, but this guy is an unbelievable cover corner with a big nose for the football. He pulled in 6 interceptions this past year, 14 total in his collegiate career, while adding 17 pass break ups! He will be a turnover machine for the Bengals.
There may have been about 5 or 6 other teams I tried to fit Kancey into ahead of this pick, but now he ends up in the perfect spot. The Saints are reworking their entire defense and Kancey should start day one. He’s an unbelievable pass rusher at his position and he should be able to move around at the next level. The knock on him is obviously his 6-1 size, but that’s not that bad considering he had the highest pass rushing grade for all interior defensive linemen throughout the country.
The Eagles lost nearly half their defense in free agency including 3 main defensive linemen in Javon Hargrave, Ndamukong Suh, and Linval Joseph. This is a position the Eagles have shown they really want to excel in, and Mazi Smith offers massive size and run stuffing ability to fill the shoes lost this offseason.
I’ve put a few bets down in this draft, but none I may be more sure than the Chiefs not letting Gibbs get by them at the end of the round. The Chiefs clearly don’t need much, but an additional offensive weapon for Pat Mahomes will never hurt. Gibbs could go much higher, but this landing spot is going to be his best if it shakes out that way.
