The TSF Consensus 2024 Mock Draft: With No Time To Spare!!!
April 25, 2024
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Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
I picked a rookie last year and only hit because of an injury, and I truly hope to not win that way again with this pick. I love Gibbs as a player, and I love what he can do for an NFL team. I love what he can do for fantasy teams as well, but only if he’s drafted correctly. Currently, he sits as RB14 (player 37) off the board, which tracks in the 3rd to 4th rounds. While I don’t hate this value on him, I still think it is a bit high, and he won’t finish the year in line with being drafted in this spot. He is still competing for reps with newly signed and highly paid David Montgomery, who the Lions signed nearly immediately, and Gibbs was more of a guy who happened to fall to them than someone they went out of their way to get. I don’t doubt that Dan Campbell will use him often, but I do doubt that he is going to be the guy getting the bulk of the carries in short yardage and goal line situations, which could seriously hinder his fantasy output. It’s tough to do, and it’s a tough reality to face, but Gibbs might very well be a “between the 20’s guy”, which is ultra-unfortunate if you draft him too early. (Cory Dows)
Tyler Locket, WR
Lockett has been able to outproduce his ADP every year since 2018, but this will be the year he falls short of that. He has been a high end WR2/low end WR1 in that same time span, so you would think this would be someone I am targeting. Last year he finished as the WR13 overall, which was a shock to us because we did not think Geno would have been able to support multiple WRs, but we were wrong. The biggest reason I am fading Lockett this year is because of the addition of talented rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If you want a deeper dive into JSN, please go back to the Breakout writeup from Dows, but the draft capital alone shows that this team wants to and will use him right away. Lockett will go back to that deep ball roll, which is fine (especially in Best Ball formats), but there will not be enough targets to go around, and I expect Lockett to be third in the pecking order. (Scott Miln)
