2021 Sleepers

Marvin Jones, WR

Jacksonville has finally found their QB with the first overall pick in Trevor Lawrence. With this, everyone is excited for the young WRs in D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault. The one player people will regret fading in this offense is none other than Marvin Jones. I wrote an article about a month back about how Jones is the WR to own in Jacksonville, and I still stand behind that today. Jacksonville has a whole new coaching regime and the biggest name in that crew is new Head Coach Urban Meyer. With it being a new regime, they don’t have any ties to anyone that was previously on the team, which in this case, are Chark and Shenault. One of the first moves this team made in the offseason was bringing in the veteran Marvin Jones on a 2-year deal. This showed me that the team wanted a vet to come in to help Trevor Lawrence in his rookie season. We have heard Meyer call Chark a ‘big man playing small ball’ and Chark is already out until Week 1 after having surgery on his finger. Shenault, who was brought in last year, could have some of his role taken away by rookie Travis Etienne. Meyer wants Etienne to line up all over the field, and more specifically, to line up in the slot. If that’s the case, those are targets that will be taken away from Shenault. We have seen what Marvin Jones has done in the past, especially last year as he worked his way to a WR17 finish. I believe they will lean heavily on Jones in 2021 and he should be a nice security blanket for Lawrence off the bat. This is not saying that both Shenault and Chark will be bad for fantasy, but with Jones going several rounds later than those two, I would rather wait and take the shot on him. I believe Jones will lead the Jags in fantasy points at the WR position in 2021

Marquez Callaway, WR

Say Hi to Michael Thomas 2.0. If you are looking for a WR being drafted in Round 12 (as of 8/17/21) with WR2 upside, stop scrolling. If that sentence didn’t convince you, keep reading. A 4-star recruit coming out of Warner Robins HS in Georgia, Callaway was a consensus Top 15 Recruit in GA in 2016, interestingly enough he was viewed as a pure athlete, who played CB in HS and transitioned to WR at Tennessee, while also being offered a spot to play collegiate basketball. It makes sense that Callaway then went on to have a successful collegiate career catching 92 balls on 152 targets for 1,646 yards and 13 TDs (that, by the way, is 17th in Tennessee history and 2nd in the last decade behind Jauan Jennings). Oh and by the way, in his senior season he averaged 21.2 yards per catch, which ranked 1st in the SEC and 4th in the nation. In 2020 he joined the Saints as an undrafted free agent, mainly to play special teams as he excelled as a punt returner/gunner in college. An undrafted 6’2 204lb 22 year old somehow made the Saints roster in 2020 and actually saw playing time. His first NFL reception was a 16 yard first down from now retired QB Drew Brees. In the following weeks, while Michael Thomas was out, he collected 12 catches on 16 targets for 109 yards and 6 first downs… the kid was just reliable. He faded from the offense once Michael Thomas returned and finished the season playing in Weeks 16 and 17, hauling in 6 catches on 8 targets for 77 yards. I’ve given you enough information at this point to see that Marquez Callaway is a gifted player, he wasn’t widely considered a great WR from HS but he came in and turned in one of the best WR careers Tennessee has seen in the last decade, he got a job in the NFL the hard way and capitalized on his opportunity. It’s now 2021 and what does Marquez Callaway have? Opportunity. Michael Thomas had ankle surgery in June of 2021, against the advice of his team, and is out for an undetermined amount of time, which has sparked rumors of him being traded. TreQuan Smith is a 4th year WR who has yet to prove to be a capable number 1, and has had a few injuries already this offseason. Deonte Harris got a DUI and will likely be slapped with a two game suspension. Jared Cook and Emmanuel Sanders are no longer with the Saints, and the Saints depth chart provides no immediate threat to Callaway being the Saints number 1 WR in Week 1. Callaway’s opportunity is now, and if history repeats itself, he will seize it. The reports out of training camp have been glowing for Callaway, who has reportedly “burnt and taken advantage of All-Pro CBs” and been a “consistent target” for both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. This praise was cemented as he caught 3 balls for 61 yards against Marlon Humphrey (PFF’s 3rd ranked CB) and Marcus Peters (PFF’s 10th Ranked CB) in the Saints first preseason tilt. Don’t believe this kid has what it takes to succeed in the NFL?

T.Y. Hilton, WR

There is no doubt that Hilton’s fall from grace has been a big talking point from Fantasy Football pundits and all the daytime sports talk shows. The former fantasy football stud had an injury riddled 2019 campaign and followed that up with a lackluster performance in 2020. However, toward the back half of 2020 (really the final 6 weeks of the season) Hilton started to figure it out. Posting 16.10, 21.00, 23.10, 9.10, 7.50, and 12.20 to cap off the season. Prior to that stretch, he hadn’t hit double digits in any week. I think you may have seen some lingering effects of the 2019 injury, or maybe just a lack of familiarity in an offense that was much different than the past. However you slice it, Hilton heads into 2021 and now has a QB in Carson Wentz that should be able to get him involved all over the field. While Phil Rivers was a fine veteran leader last year, he wasn’t able to do much to buoy the offense, which was why they relied so heavily on Jonathan Taylor and the running backs out of the backfield, instead of driving the ball downfield, which has been much more of Frank Reich’s bread and butter, especially with Wentz under center. Now it bears mentioning that his ADP could currently be taking a hit due to the speculation about the severity of Wentz’s foot injury, but he’s been spotted back at practice which I have to take as a good sign. His ADP as WR55 is even lower than his WR40 (half PPR) finish in 2020, where he might as well have only played half a season. The return of Parris Campbell, the growth of Michael Pittman, and the emergence of Michael Strachan are all reasons I like Hilton’s value this season and have him pegged as a sleeper. These guys should pull some attention away from T.Y. and allow him to work in some open space, where we have seen him crush it for years. If you can get a guy like Hilton later on in drafts, it allows you to take other positions early on and really stack the deck in your favor. Sheesh, if you took my sleeper and Scott’s Marvin Jones sleeper, you could go RB the first 5 rounds and still probably end up alright! (I do not recommend this approach*)

Darnell Mooney, WR

If you were ever an Anthony Miller fan or a fantasy owner of Anthony Miller, you know what’s coming in 2021 for Darnell Mooney. Literally undrafted everywhere last year, Mooney told Miller to hold his beer while he ate Miller’s breakfast and used his jersey as a napkin. Mooney not only stole Miller’s job in 2020, he may have ended his career just by breathing the same air… such a disrespectful man that Mooney! You can tell in his name he’s a troublemaker. It’s clear as day now Mooney is the #2 wide receiver in Chicago, as they traded Anthony Miller to the Texans (poor guy). Mooney garnered 61 catches on 98 targets for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in his rookie season, and was one of the highlights for the Bears in 2020. He’s a 4.38 burner who was 11th in the league on deep targets, his bread and butter is surely the deep ball. The Bears have also brought in some other deep ball targets such as Damiere Byrd and Marquise Goodwin, and have been seen running a set with all 3 of those WRs on the field at the same time in preseason. Also, drafting an athletic and strong armed signal caller like Justin Fields has me even more convinced the game plan is to get the ball deep in the air and down field as much as possible this season. Watch out for Brandin Cooks type numbers with Mooney, and if you can draft a 2016 Brandin Cooks (WR9 – 76 rec/1172 yds/8 TD) in Round 11, well sign me up to draft the playground bully Darnell Mooney in 2021.

Latavius Murray, RB

Latavius Murray is a player that is faded in drafts every year, but ends up finishing higher than his ADP. Since he has been with the Saints, he has not finished outside the RB3 range, yet he is still being drafted as the RB 46 (as of 8/14) in fantasy drafts. With this ADP for Murray, you can likely get him towards the end of your drafts, and he should produce much higher than where you are taking him. Sure, we are not positive who the starting QB will be for the Saints (Winston or Hill), but I am leaning towards Taysom Hill to start. When Hill started last season when Brees was hurt, Murray went for 31 carries, 173 rushing yards, and 2 TDs in the first 2 games. I know that is a small sample size and eventually Kamara had a larger role in the other games with Hill, but if Hill is the guy all season, I believe Murray will be consistently used alongside Kamara. Regardless of who the QB will be, the Saints should lean on the running game, especially to start the season with Michael Thomas likely out several weeks. You can get Murray late and he could end up being a nice flex piece, especially in 2 flex leagues. (Please don’t get cut!)

Mike Williams, WR

Joe Lombardi takes over as the new OC in Los Angeles and what does he bring with him? An offensive scheme that propelled Michael Thomas to fantasy stardom. With Lombardi’s enthusiasm to use Mike Williams as the X receiver in that scheme, 136 vacated targets, combined with Williams’ 85 targets in 2020, I would fully expect the 4th year WR to get upwards of 115 targets (which is probably on the conservative side). He already has a 1000 yard season and a double digit TD season under his belt, so we know he can do it at the NFL level, it’s just putting it all together and Lombardi seems excited to make it happen. With a ridiculous 16.7 yards per catch in his career, a 6’ 4” 218 frame, and seemingly no other red zone target for Herbert, Williams is bound to drastically outperform his 10th round ADP as the 42nd WR off the board. Bake in the fact that Williams is in a contract year and we have ourselves a potential league winning WR. 115-120 targets for 75-80 catches and 1200 yards with double digit TDs is JUST what the doctor ordered for Williams to get a payday. With the upside at WR42 tell me you’d prefer Jarvis Landry, Tyler Boyd, Michael Pittman, Antonio Brown or someone else of that caliber… Do it, I dare you.

J.D. McKissic, RB

I’m shocked to see McKissic’s ADP as low as it is after the season he posted in 2020. Currently being drafted as RB48, or 150th overall, the disrespect for McKissic is REAL. And I really don’t understand why. He posted, by far, the best season of his career last year, and he rejoins an offense largely unchanged, with the couple of moves they made only helping them get better (adding Fitzmagic and Curtis Samuel). The veteran presence of FitzSwagic should immediately translate to more passing attempts for the offense, which should theoretically boost McKissic’s value even higher. I understand that Gibson is a threat to handle the vast majority of the ground work, and that J.D. is a more traditional third down style back, but in an offense like Washington has, there should always be value in a guy like McKissic. He is versatile, can run between the tackles when needed, and is likely the best receiving back in the league. He also has shown the ability to pick up blocks and take any touch to the house. He turned all of this into an RB24 finish last season, and has somehow dropped 100% to RB48? Someone help me to understand this! I would happily take the flier on McKissic at his current ADP, and if you happen to be able to snag Gibson in your drafts you could justify reaching on him to “secure your handcuff”. I put that in quotes because I think he also has standalone value as a starter, so while you can pitch it as a handcuff nabbing pick, you could just as easily be locking up a weekly flex play with RB2 upside. Now that’s a steal!

Michael Pittman Jr., WR

I have to be honest I wasn’t a huge believer that Michael Pittman could find himself in a category like this one day. I thought he was talented, but ultimately wouldn’t have the goods to become a household name, yet here we are in year two of his career and he very well could be on track to be the WR1 in Indy for years to come. Opportunity is king in Fantasy, and Pittman will have quite the opportunity to shine this year. TY Hilton has been the mainstay in Indy for many moons now, but it’s no secret the former burner has lost a few steps. Now TY can still play, which will inevitably assist Pittman in becoming more successful, but his time as the number 1 is over. Other than TY Hilton, Pittman really only has target competition with Parris Campbell who has yet to put a full season together. Other than the golden opportunity for Pittman, there are other things to like about his situation. Coach Frank Reich and QB Carson Wentz have had some success with similar style receivers like Michael Pittman’s 6-4 223 lb. frame, you may have heard Alshon Jeffrey’s name once or twice. Wentz and Jeffrey had great rhythm together and I can see the same potential in the current duo. Pittman will need to see his TD numbers grow as he only scored once last year, but maintaining a respectable 12.6 yards per catch in 2021 should keep his production high, regardless. Pittman should get more work down the field and in the end zone with TY transitioning more to a route runner than burner so both his TD and yards per reception numbers should grow. There’s a solid chance Pittman goes for 900 yards and 8 TDs which could creep into the WR2 range and make this 9th round pick a steal.