2021 Busts

Myles Gaskin, RB

Gaskin’s story last season was great, so I don’t want to knock him too much. The two RBs for the Dolphins last season to draft were Jordan Howard and Matt Breida. Both, of course, did not work out and Gaskin took that backfield from the two vets right away. Gaskin started off hot and in the first 8 weeks, he scored double digit fantasy points in all but one game. The problem for Gaskin owners was that he only played in 3 games after Week 8 due to injuries. He did come back in Week 16 and put up a monster 30-plus point game, so he may have helped you win your fantasy championships, but I do not expect him to do this in 2021. The Dolphins wanted to draft Javonte Williams in the rookie draft, but the Broncos traded up to steal him a pick before them. Because of that, the team went in a different direction with their draft. Just the fact that they openly wanted a running back in the draft shows me they are not sold on Gaskin as their workhorse. I am a little surprised that they did not sign an RB or draft one in the later rounds, but we are still a few weeks away from the NFL season, so there is still time for them to bring in a vet or even scoop up an RB that ends up getting cut. The Dolphins also drafted Jaylen Waddle (WR) and signed Will Fuller in the offseason. With this, it shows they want to move the ball in the air more than they did in 2020. Another addition they brought in, Malcolm Brown, could easily steal goal line carries this season. And don’t forget, they still have Salvon Ahmed who filled in for Gaskin nicely when he was injured. Gaskin is being drafted as an RB2 in drafts, but I just don’t see him finishing that high. Brian Flores came out and did say there will be a 3-headed RB committee in 2021, so just add that on to another reason Gaskin will not finish as an RB1. Guys like Kareem Hunt, Darrell Henderson, James Robinson, and several more are being drafted after him and I would rather all those guys over him. I currently have him as the RB32 ranked, and unless there are key injuries from now until the start of the season, I do not see myself putting him any higher.

Mike Davis, RB

Please do not get sucked into the hype train of offseason workout programs and the size of some of these running backs quads. The picture we all saw of Mike Davis this offseason is just a still frame image of a professional athlete that is paid to be strong and fast… but that doesn’t mean he’s a good running back or in a good situation. Big Mike did a relatively good job in relief of CMC last year, but almost any RB will produce in that system and Atlanta is almost the polar opposite of the Carolina system. They haven’t produced an RB1 since Devonta Freeman did it in 2016, and that dude is now moving from practice squad to practice squad. The Atlanta Falcons also finished way below league average with former superstar Todd Gurley as their featured running back. They did absolutely nothing to improve their offensive line and shipped out arguably their best offensive player in the passing game. Now you might say, hey Arthur Smith has had a lot of success as a running offensive coordinator so it should translate… No… No it won’t, because Mike Davis is not Derrick Henry, nobody is Derrick Henry. Also, Arthur Smith has been a habitual Tight End Coach in the league and just drafted the best receiving Tight End in the NFL since Gronk, they are going to mix things up, but they sure as shit won’t be running 350 times with Mike Davis. Now if none of this convinces you why you shouldn’t draft Mike Davis in the beginning of the 4th round then good luck to you, but really think about what players you’re leaving on the board, Kyle Pitts is going just a few spots behind him and I’d be willing to say Pitts has a better fantasy season than Mike Davis and I’d rather see you draft a rookie TE in Round 4 than draft Mike Davis, that’s how strongly I feel.

Austin Ekeler, RB

I want to be very clear, I’m taking Ekeler as a bust solely because of his current ADP (13th overall, RB10) versus what I think he will actually churn out from a fantasy perspective. His monster 2019 can’t be ignored, but at the same time, it is the only season in his career he has handled a workload like that, and I think the Chargers are wising up to the fact that he is not going to be able to shoulder the load like that on a consistent basis. I think that’s why we saw them use Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley, and Kalen Ballage last year, as well as add Larry Rountree in the draft this offseason. I think they are hunting for a back who can handle a solid workload and relieve some of the burden from Ekeler. This potential reduction is the reason I have him as a bust, not a lack of talent or skill, solely the opportunity that may be handed to someone else. I think if they are wise they will return him to the third down back role where he thrived, and of course mix him in more than a typical 3DRB on early downs as well, but they should have the rest of their RB stable to handle short yardage and between the tackle work, and let Ekeler work out in space where he can be more dynamic and pop for big plays. He’s not a grinder, he shouldn’t be used as such, and as a result, he shouldn’t be drafted as such in fantasy. The RBs going around him, Barkley, Chubb, Taylor, Jones, Gibson, Najee Harris, Mixon, CEH, Dobbins… are much more suited to this bell-cow role, and I would take them all ahead of Ekeler (except MAYBE in a full PPR scoring format, but even then, he’s only gone over 54 catches one time in his career, that monster 2019 season). I think it is more realistic to project Ekeler as RB18-22, and that is a far cry from RB10 where he is currently going. I’d love to be wrong on this one, but I see too much uncertainty to have any faith in selecting Ekeler in 2021 redraft leagues.

Josh Jacobs, RB

I don’t know about you, but every mock draft I’ve done when the end of the second/beginning of the third comes around and Josh Jacobs is up to be picked I keep finding myself saying, I don’t want this guy. So you know what, I’m not gonna draft him. Just at all, I’m not even sure if he fell to the 5th round I’d want to draft Jacobs. The Raiders signed Kenyan Drake to a substantial contract (2 years $14.5 million). Jacobs did finish as RB8, but I don’t feel like that indicates he is an RB8 again in 2021. He had 5 games over 20 points, and really 5 games where he was an RB1 on the week. He did it all on touchdowns (9 of his 12 coming from 4 games), nothing in the passing game, a poor YPC and now he has a competent backup to take away some work. He is being drafted ahead of guys like Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb, Allen Robinson. Josh Jacobs is the beginning of the RB dead zone.